研究报告全文：MN4Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSamsonite1910HK3QPreviewrevadjEBITDA2036TargetPriceHK329IncontrarytoanormalisedquarterthatweexpectforPrada1913HKBUYPreviousTPHK324weforecastSamsonitetoextenditsstrengthfrom1Handreport3QrevenueadjUpDownside217EBITDAofUS950180mn2036WeenvisagethiswillbemuchdrivenCurrentPriceHK270byanintactglobaltraveldemandduringsummerholidaywhicheffectivelymanifestedintoluggageandbagssell-throughByregionwelookforrevenueChinaConsumerinNorthAmericaEuropeAPACtogrowby73520toUS310330260mnBybrandsgrowthinTUMIshouldcontinuetooutperformJosephWONGthatfromSamsoniteandAmericanTouristerThepersistentmixupgradeis85239000838likelytosustaina59GPMforthequarterandwearewaryofanyjosephwongcmbicomhkregionalchannelmixchangetoresultindeviationtoourestimateAdvertisingexpenseratioislikelytostandstablydespiteseasonalityinourviewandsoBellaLIwillthecostcurvewhichhasexhibitedapparentfixedcostsavingsfrom2Q85237576202SinceSamsoniteisontracktofinanciallygrowbeyondthepre-pandemicyearbellalicmbicomhkin2019weseegroundsforvaluationtocatchupandrevertfromcurrently130x1-yearforwardPEto200pre-pandemicWeareBuy-ratedStockData2024EOutlookMuchhavebeenaskedbyinvestorsandwelookforlow-MktCapHKmn388145teenrevenuegrowthwhenthepent-uptraveldemandoverthe3-yearAvg3mthstoHKmn1361pandemiclockdownhasyettofullydigestparticularlythatfromAsia52wHighLowHK27551688TotalIssuedSharesmn14376consideringChinareopenedlaterthanothernationsMeanwhilethegradualSourceFactSetramp-upinlong-haulflightscapacityalsohelpsNumericallyAPACshouldremainthefastestgrowthregionwithlow-to-midteensalesgrowththankstoShareholdingStructurefavourablecompsandrobustTUMIsalesOherthanthatweforecastSchrodersPLC60BankofNewYorkMellonCor54revenuegrowthinNorthAmericatonormalisetomid-single-digitwhilethatSourceHKExinEuropewillnormalisetohigh-single-digitwiththesupportfromnewTUMIstoreopeningsSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative1-mth19117Balancesheetde-gearingGrowthandprofitabilityin2Q23wasonrecord3-mth195349trajectoryandSamsonitesmanagementisactivelylookingtode-leverage6-mth98294itsbalancesheetOfnoteby1H23SamsonitehadUS19bntotaldebtwithSourceFactSetanaverageborrowingcostof55Samsonitehasjustcompletedits12-mthPricePerformancerefinancingonitsUS382mnseniornoteandweexpectfuturerepaymentwillbemainlymadetotheremainingUS15bnfloatingratedebtInourviewSamsoniteisalsoontracktoresumeitsdividendpay-outbyend-23Ethatweestimatetheratiotostandinitiallyat30EarningschangevaluationWelargelymaintainourestimatesOurTPisDCF-basedInourmodelweassumeaWACCof80andterminalgrowthSourceFactSetof2OurTPimplies159xend-23EPERelatedreports1Prada1913HK-3QpreviewEarningsSummaryEmbracinganormalisedquarterSepYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E29RevenueUSmn202128803944434346592CTGDF601888CH2Qinlinewithprofitalertsubtlerecoveryahead-28YoYgrowth31542537010173Aug2023NetprofitUSmn14331273686434249253Samsonite1910HK2QrevnpYoYgrowthnanm1791781343349strengthextendingto2H18Aug2023EPSReportedUS001022026030034ConsensusEPSUSnana0260310344PradaSpA1913HKAdecent1Hthoughnotastraightbeat-28Jul2023PEx19561041341141015ChowTaiFook1929HKAnotherPBx4131352924solidquarter11Jul2023EVEBITx490130897465ROE22363303278259Netgearing21231334771452308SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk4Oct2023Figure1DCFassumptionsFigure2DCFsensitivityanalysisPresentvaluecalculation3293334803637NetPresentValue3584232213200734016901565TerminalValue3943242443219334518191675Enterprisevalue7527201735160732913991313-Netdebt1454263100270635421551955TotalEquityvalue6073273593307335823792136Numberofsharesmn1438DCFvaluepershareHK329SensitivitytoRFandlong-termgrowthWACCassumptions3292324202627Debt59034346351334360365Equity41035343348331357362Taxrate26035340345329354358Borrowingpremium4636338342326350355Post-taxcostofdebt6036335339323347352Riskfreerate35RiskPremium50Beta15SensitivitytoRFandEquityRiskPremiumERPCostofequity110329333435363748348342337331326WACC804849344338333327322Long-termgrowth2050340334329323318513363303253203151USD77852332326321316311SourceCMBIGMestimatesSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SamsonitesmonthlysalesgrowthFigure4TUMIsmonthlysalesgrowthononTaobaoTmallTaobaoTmall300TaobaoTmallsales300TaobaoTmallsales20020010010000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec-100-1002022yoy2023yoy2022yoy2023yoySourceMoojingCMBIGMSourceMoojingCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE24Oct2023Figure5EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffUSDmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue394443434659402043804663-19-09-01GrossProfit232725752777237225982779-19-09-01EBITDA856919983866913970-110713Netprofit369434493368423477012634GrossMargin5905935965905935960ppt0ppt0pptAdjEBITDAMargin21721221118519520132ppt17ppt09pptNetmargin93100106929710202ppt03ppt04pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure6CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffUSDmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue394443434659382242504630322206GrossProfit232725752777225124962716343222EBITDA856919983816916968490416Netprofit369434493378444485-25-2216GrossMargin59059359658958758701ppt06ppt09pptAdjEBITDAMargin21721221121421520904ppt-04ppt02pptNetmargin9310010699104105-05ppt-04ppt01pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure7Samsonite-12MforwardPEbandFigure8Samsonite-12MtrailingPBbandx1-yrfwdPELTaverage-2SDx1-yrtrailingPBLTavg1855-2SD-1SD-1SD1SD2SD1SD2SD1650144512401035830625Jul21Jul22Jul23JulJan22Jan23JanMar22Mar23MarSep22SepSep21Sep21Nov22Nov23SepJul21Jul22Jul23JulMay22MayMay23MayJan22Jan23JanMar22Mar23MarSep21Sep21Nov22Sep22Nov23SepMay23May22MaySourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE34Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnRevenue153720212880394443434659Costofgoodssold8309191274161717681882Grossprofit70611021605232725752777Operatingexpenses10189881185163717891906Sellingexpense818782963135314771570Adminexpense200206222284313335Operatingprofit1266133492690786871EBITDA1011330668856919983AdjustedEBITDA219182472736839933Depreciation664635364042Goodwillamortisation1891521411309369EBIT1266133492690786871NetInterestincomeexpense116165130151151151Otherincomeexpense000000Pre-taxprofit138233363539635720Incometax945624140165187Aftertaxprofit128824338399470533Minorityinterest10926303640Netprofit127814313369434493Grossdividends000111130148BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnCurrentassets217419401695267029363184Cashequivalents1495132563693212321370Accountreceivables141206291594654702Inventories45634868810639691031Othercurrentassets826080808080Non-currentassets298829153027291228302770PPE188155162177189198Deferredincometax55124174174174174Intangibles141813921459143514121390Goodwill850829824824824824Othernon-currentassets786694949494Totalassets516248544721558257665954Currentliabilities7319181213167515001286Short-termborrowings81107119119119119Accountpayables41352977912401065851Taxpayable355777777777Othercurrentliabilities5793120120120120Non-currentliabilities376232102428242824282428Long-termborrowings311026821893189318931893Othernon-currentliabilities266225278278278278Totalliabilities449341283642410339283714Sharecapital141414141414Retainedearnings6206751017138617102072Totalshareholdersequity6346901032140017242086Minorityinterest35374878114154Totalequityandliabilities516248544721558257665954PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE44Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation138233363539635720Depreciationamortization997857606365Taxpaid28251140165187Changeinworkingcapital120203175217140325Others1078137831067047Netcashfromoperations114387278348462319InvestingCapitalexpenditure212152525252Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term000000investmentsOthers63011000Netcashfrominvesting26963525252FinancingDividendpaid0000111130Netborrowings1413386741000Others3989000Netcashfromfinancing11585518810111130NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear463149513256369321232Exchangedifference141623000Cashattheendoftheyear1495132563693212321370GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue57831542537010173Grossprofit65056045744910778Operatingprofitnana2708402139108EBITDAnana10202837369EBITnana2708402139108Netprofitnana20867179178134PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin460545558590593596Operatingmargin82466171175181187EBITDAmargin658163232217212211ReturnonequityROE98922363303278259GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx272113080503Currentratiox302114162025Receivableturnoverdays141490525550550550Inventoryturnoverdays102615312730240020002000Payableturnoverdays92923253091280022001650VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEna1956104134114101PEdilutednana146128114101PB294131352924EV672706503564219612565825456878EVSales443222161312EVEBIT53490130897465EVEBITDA6719796726358SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE54Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6