研究报告全文：MN9Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCRPower836HKAugustoperatingdatarecapTargetPriceHK2253CRPowerunveileditsoperatingdataforAugandJan-Aug2023DuringJan-AugPreviousTPHK2343CRPowerrecorded38YoYgrowthontotalpowergenerationwithrobustgrowthUpDownside562forsolarwindpowergenerationInAugCRPowerstotalpowergenerationdroppedby123YoYduetodeclineinthermalwindpowergenerationashydropowerCurrentPriceHK1442generationimprovedtogetherwithunfavorablewindconditionwhilehydrosolarChinaEnergypowergenerationrosesignificantlyby3491947YoYthankstohigherrainfallandfavorablesolarconditionConsideringrecentoperatingdataandassumptionMeganXiaCESGAguidanceonutilizationhourswelowerourpowergenerationexpectationbutremain85237610836optimisticonthenewenergynewly-addedinstalledcapacityandlowerfuelcostsinmeganxiacmbicomhk2H23WeadjustedourTPtoHK2253MaintainBUYStockDataWindthermalpowergenerationdroppedinAugwhilewindandsolarpowerMktCapHKmn693666maintainedrapidgrowthmomentuminJan-AugCRPowerreporteda38Avg3mthstoHKmn1785YoYincreaseinpowergenerationinJan-Aug2023Windsolarthermalpower52wHighLowHK18801140TotalIssuedSharesmn1000generationroseby13381012YoYInAughydrosolarpowergenerationSourceFactSetsurgedby349and1947YoYbenefitingfromabundantrainfallandfavourablelightconditionsHoweverthermalpowergenerationdecreasedbyShareholdingStructure125YoYduetoimprovedhydropowergenerationandstricterthermalcoalCRHPowerLtd629safetymanagementduringtheAsiaGamesInadditionunfavourablewindFirstSeafrontFund42SourceHKExconditionscauseda214YoYdropinwindpowergenerationAnticipatecontinuousslightimprovementofthermalpowercostsandSharePerformancesteadytariffpolicyin2H23withexpectedcapacitypaymentbenefitingAbsoluteRelativethermalpoweroperatorsCRPowerexperiencedaprofitturnaroundinthermal1-mth-6404powerduring1H23benefitingfromlowerfuelcostsWeexpectfuelcoststo3-mth-195-106continuetoimprovein2H23Furthermoreweanticipatesignificantchangesinon-6-mth-11937SourceFactSetgridtariffpoliciesforthermalpowerareunlikelyintheshorttermasspotthermalcoalpricesinJulandAugstillexceedthenationalbenchmarkfor5500kcal12-mthPricePerformancethermalcoalatQinghuangdaoPortatRMB570-770tonneAdditionallytheexpectedreleaseofcapacitypaymentpolicyforthermalpowerinlate2023orearly2024istargetedtohelprecoverearningslostduetoreducedutilizationhoursofthermalpowerandenhancepowersupplystabilityasmorerenewableenergyachievegridparityExpectrobustgrowthinsolarpowerandaimfor7GWnewly-addednewenergyinstalledcapacityin2023IntermsofnewenergysegmentweforeseeSourceFactSetCRPowertoshowrapidgrowthininstalledcapacityandgenerationofsolarpowerin2023andbelievetheCompanycanachieve7GWnewly-addedinstalledcapacityofnewenergyin2023ThelowerupstreamcostsofsolarwindpowerandtechnologicaladvancementhaveresultedinadvancedIRRofnewenergyprojectsInadditionon-gridtariffsmayslightlydropduetorisingpowertransactionsbutsignificantfluctuationsarenotanticipatedin2H23AdjustedTPtoHK2253maintainBUYBasedonthemgmtsguidanceandoperatingdataweslightlylowerCRPowersthermalwindsolarpowersutilizationhoursestimatesin2023-2025maintainotherkeyassumptionunchangedandadjustthenetprofitestimatestoHK127041515317919mnConsequentlyourSOTP-basedTPisadjustedtoHK2253MaintainBUYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueHKmn89800103305112885120914129326NetprofitHKmn1592770425127036151526179193EPSReportedHK033146264315373YoYgrowth7903422804193183ConsensusEPSHKna146245294331PEx428105544538PBx0809070706ROE1883146156166SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Oct2023Figure1RevisionTableSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2TargetpriceBookvaluePerTargetHKmn-sharePBFY23EHKDThermalpowersegment1750307x24Renewablepowersegment7462013x202Total2253SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3PEbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Oct2023Figure5PeerstablerenewablesenergyClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINARESPOWER836HK14426936660269309370171535467390077069062CGNNEWENERGYH1811HK20186245600800800961321321285078069061CHINALONGYUAN-H916HK63012860807096115126145610512465066060055CHINADATANGC-H1798HK1791301992040044051136422378327nananaCHINALONGYUAN-A001289CH199011996206097114125136204917521587213197179CHINATHREEGO-A600905CH47813682152030036043196159313391114163147130Average927969121110SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6PeerstablethermalpowerClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINAPOWERINTE2380HK2963661565032045056338876608489075068061CHINARESPOWER836HK14426936660269309370171535467390077069062HUANENGPOWER-H902HK36711004044074085103182464405332052048038HUADIANPOWER-H1071HK3165241347057071080191521415368057051043Average544438070605SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnRevenue6955189800103305112885120914129326Costofgoodssold324945844464283612066301764883Grossprofit370573135639022516795789664443Operatingexpenses126211399915207164521783719089Staffcosts600163556632724180338732Others6620764485759210980510357Operatingprofit244361735723815352284005945354Otherincome246028121982198219821982EBITDA268962016925797372094204147335Depreciation114681459814245145431604017454Otheramortisation245018516212491EBIT15184557111367225042587629789Interestincome349301192192192192Interestexpense377140614083434042104169Foreignexchangegainloss000000Otherincomeexpense799122199122122122Others1090922184000Pre-taxprofit1147018419461184782198125935Incometax27949581906462054956484Aftertaxprofit86768847556138591648519451Minorityinterest1094709513115513331532Netprofit758315937042127041515317919BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnCurrentassets406385394048631344383448431352Cashequivalents503679347721897998145144Accountreceivables314283776935616203191934620692Inventories291267484582436244914624Contractassets12621489712778833891Non-currentassets218994233415234757251674267131281207PPE180817192953191356208313223773237819Deferredincometax86110411075107510751075Goodwill745664622460335244Othernon-currentassets283672999732654326543265432654Totalassets259632287355283388286112301616312559Currentliabilities650656805982671745237939777823Short-termborrowings201582318638383294173245928899Accountpayables335873413630248288002965230530Othercurrentliabilities113201073714039163051728618393Non-currentliabilities88617112245100164999979922598357Long-termborrowings8210910531093322931559238391515Othernon-currentliabilities650769356842684268426842Totalliabilities153682180304182835174519178622176180Sharecapital223172231722317223172231722317Retainedearnings465804439049783596686973581589Otherreserves169062168110139101391013910139Totalshareholdersequity85803883888223992123102191114045Minorityinterest201481866318315194702080322335Totalequityandliabilities259632287355283388286113301616312560PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE49Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation114702110489461184782198125935Depreciationamortization117131459814430147051616417546Changeinworkingcapital633910599595162682621448Netcashfromoperations20702740024167447103514937323InvestingCapitalexpenditure305292511832580315003150031500Others190557201267000Netcashfrominvesting286241939833847315003150031500FinancingDividendpaid275631551226281950856065Netborrowings335902775343383383832941732459Others443974580454077292503168828031Netcashfromfinancing805114896946811952281510493NetchangeincashCashattheendoftheyear129289821312588354669GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue26291150937170Grossprofit76154244324120113Operatingprofit190290372479137132EBITDA151250279442130126EBIT1916331040980150151Netprofit1517903422804193183PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin533349378458479498Operatingmargin351193231312331351EBITDAmargin387225250330348366ReturnonequityROE961883146156166GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox060806050404VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE58428105544538PB050809070706Divyield6921387488104SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE59Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6