>> 招银国际-China Auto Sector–Sep discounts widened again-231009
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研究报告全文：9Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaAutoSectorSepdiscountswidenedagainOUTPERFORMMaintainWesummarizetheSep2023pricediscountsatdealersformajorautomakersinChinaAutoSectorthisreportNotethatsuchdiscountsforeachautomakerarecalculatedbasedonweightedaverageofAug2023retailsalesvolumeforeachmodelasSepretailSHIJiCFAsalesvolumedatahavenotbeenreleasedyetDiscountsatdealersformost85237618728brandswidenedMoMinSep2023asthepricewarpersistswithmoreandmoreshijicmbicomhkcompetitiveproductrolloutsandrawmaterialpricedeclineNeverthelessDOUWenjingCFAinvestorsmaypaylessattentiontowardsthewideningdiscountsduringtheso-85269394751calledgoldenSepandsilverOctasthenewmodeleffectandsalesdouwenjingcmbicomhkperformancecouldbemoreimportantforautomakersamidthereplacementofICEvehiclesbyNEVsGUSijiejasongucmbicomhkGreatWallMotorGreatWallsaveragediscountsatdealersremainedlargelystableinSep2023comparedwithAugperourcalculationbasedonAugretailsalesvolumeforeachmodelFigure1GreatWalls3Q23overalldiscountswereatasimilarlevelcomparedto2Q23TherewasstillnodiscountfortheWeyLanshanPHEVlastmonthalthoughitsretailsalesvolumefelltoabout2000unitsinSepThecompetitionamong6-seatmid-StocksCoveredto-large-sizeSUVshasbeenintensifyingespeciallyalongwiththelaunchofNameTickerRatingTPLCthenewAitoM7WeexpectthediscountsfortheWeyLanshantowideninLiAutoLIUSBUY55thenextfewmonthsThewholesalevolumefortheTankbrandreachedanLiAuto2015HKBUY215all-timehighofabout18000unitsinSepwiththeirdiscountsremainingatNIONIOUSHOLD10verylowlevelsThediscountsfortheHaomaoandFlashCatEVscontinuedXpengXPEVUSHOLD14towideninSepXpeng9868HKHOLD55Geely175HKBUY14GeelyGeelysaveragediscountsatdealersnarrowedabitMoMinSep2023GWM2333HKBUY12Figure2mainlyduetotheXingyueandXingruiaswellasthelaunchesofGWM601633CHBUY32theModelYear2024versionsfortheEmgrandLPHEVGeometryG6EVandBYD1211HKHOLD240GeometryEEVThediscountsoftheGalaxyL7PHEVwidenedslightlytoBYD002594CHHOLD265about3inSepandtheGalaxyL6PHEValsoofferedsmalldiscountsrightGAC2238HKBUY7aftertherolloutsGeelysoveralldiscountshavebeenaround7-9forsevenGAC601238CHBUY14monthsandweexpectitsdiscountstobelargelystableforthenextfewEVA838HKBUY15monthsYongda3669HKBUY5Meidong1268HKBUY72BYDBYDsaveragediscountsatdealerswidenedMoMlastmonthFigure3mainlyduetohigherdiscountsfortheDolphinEVQinPlusDMandYuanSourceBloombergCMBIGMPlusEVBYDsdiscountsremainedthelowestamongallmajorautomakersGivenBYDscurrentcostadvantageinNEVswebelieveitspricingstrategycouldpartiallydependonthesalesgapbetweenitstargetandactualvolumeRelatedReportsTheDenzaN7andN8sdiscountsremainedflatMoMinSepWeexpectsuchChinaAutoSectorMostNEVbrandsSepdiscountstowidenin4Q23amidheightenedcompetitioninthissegmentWesalesvolumeontrack3Oct2023projectBYDsnetprofitpervehicletowidenslightlyQoQin3Q23amidChinaAutoSectorMoreNEVmodelstablediscountsandrawmaterialpricesrolloutsasapositivecatalyst25Sep2023GACGroupTrumpchisdiscountsatdealerswidenedabitMoMinSepdrivenbytheM8andGS3AionsdiscountsatdealerscontinuedtowidenbyChinaAutoSectorAugdiscountswidenedabout1pptMoMinSepmainlyduetotheAionSandAionVEVsAionsslightlyMoM7Sep2023wholesalevolumeexceeded50000unitsinSepwhichmayleadtoinventoryincreaseagainlastmonthThesalesramp-upoftheHyperGTEVmaybeworthpayingattentiontoasallvariantsstarteddeliveriesfromSepwithapricecutofRMB20000forthe710kmrear-drivesuper-chargingversionPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Oct2023DiscountsatdealersofGACToyotaandGACHondacontinuedtowidenMoMtorecordhighsinSep2023Figure5and6BMWDiscountsforBMWBrilliancewidenedMoMtoaround20inSep2023anall-timehighlevelagainFigure7asBMWannouncedsimilaradditionalrebatesfordealersin3Q23comparedwith2Q23AlthoughtheOEMreviseddownNEVmarketsharetargetinChinafor2H23discountsforthei3andiX3EVcontinuedtowidenandthenewiX1alsostartedtoofferdiscountsofabout15inSepWeexpectnewcargrossmarginforBMWdealersin3Q23tobeevenworsethan2Q23excludingthehalf-yearspecialsubsidiesMercedes-BenzDiscountsforBeijingBenzremainedlargelystableMoMinSepFigure8aswideneddiscountsfortheEQEEVEQESUVEVandGLCwerelargelyoffsetbynarroweddiscountsoftheA-ClassE-ClassandGLBFigure1GreatWallMotordiscountsatdealersFigure2GeelydiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure3BYDdiscountsatdealersFigure4GACTrumpchiAiondiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE9Oct2023Figure5GACToyotadiscountsatdealersFigure6GACHondadiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure7BMWBrilliancediscountsatdealersFigure8BeijingBenzdiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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