研究报告全文：MN10Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCTGDF601888CH3Qprelimrevnp2893estimatesunchangedTargetPriceRMB1244CTGDFreportedpreliminary3QfinancialdatawithrevenueincreasingbyPreviousTPRMB1323279YoYtoRMB150bngrossmarginsexpandingto3431Q2QUpDownside239288325andnetprofitsgrowing931toRMB13bnThequartersCurrentPriceRMB1004revenuewasapparentlyflattishcomparedtothatof2QandthatshouldnotcomeinasasurprisetothemarketgiventhetrajectoryweobservedintheChinaConsumervisitationmomentumtoHainan6M303YoYvs8M386YoYOtherthanJosephWONGthataslightlylowerpre-taxmarginof1082Q119caughtourattention85239000838andthatwasprobablyowingtohigherrevenuesharestoairportsAllinallwhenjosephwongcmbicomhkconsensusexpectationistaperingwecontinuetoarguethatearningsriskisincrementallycontainedandourimplied4QrevenuenetprofitsofBellaLIRMB21bn17bnshouldlookintactonaseasonallystrongerfestivaltravelling85237576202bellalicmbicomhkandspendingStockDataMajor101GoldenweekindicatorswereamixedbagAtotalof826mnMktCapRMBmn1960310peopletravelleddomesticallybetweenthe8daysof29Septo6Oct104Avg3mthstoRMBmn1909452wHighLowRMB2328010040ofpre-COVIDbutisbelowgovernmenttargetof113IndollartermsTotalIssuedSharesmn19525tourismrevenueofRMB753bnstoodat102ofpre-COVIDlevelEachSourceFactSettravellerspent4lessvspre-COVIDandyet5morevsthe51holidayShareholdingStructurethisyearOurTMTteamnotedthatlong-haultravelhasincreasedto51ChinaTourismGroupCorpLtd533ofthemixcomparedto35in2022HKSC116SourceHKExbutthoseofHainanlookedwell-expectedAtotalof43mntouriststotheIslandduringthebreak107ofpre-COVIDand133ofthelevelseenSharePerformanceinthe51holidaythisyearThenumberofDFshoppersperdayis3lessAbsoluteRelativeandeachshopperspent3lesscomparedto511-mth-74-613-mth-84-51EarningschangeWelargelymaintainourforecastsfornowandwaitfor6-mth-448-383furtherdetailsatfullresultsreleaseon27OctInourmodelwecontinueSourceFactSettoassumeRMB46bnHainanDFSrevenueincludingHaitangBay12-mthPricePerformanceValuationWemaintainouraveragevaluationfrom2018inclusiveInourviewthereispresumablynoquickfixtotheflatteringconsumptionrecoveryandnowweprojectCTGDFtogrowatamorenormalisedcadenceover2024-25EintandemwiththemacroeconomyWithnomajorchangestoourearningsforecastsourrevisedTPisbasedonanupdated275xfrompreviously290xend-24EPEwhichstillbenchmarksto-1sdbelow5-yearaveragesince2018SourceFactSetEarningsSummaryRelatedreportsYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E1ChinaInternetTrendsobservedfromRevenueRMBmn6767654433719208228193576NationalDayHolidayOct9YoYgrowth2871963211441372ChinaConsumerSectorAninlineNetprofitRMBmn96537503996907793553118018goldenweekbutwewillstaycautiousYoYgrowth572478371354262Oct9EPSReportedRMB4942533344525703Samsonite1910HK3QPreviewConsensusEPSRMBnana369508641revadjEBITDA2036-Oct4PEx5587633012221764PradaSpA1913HK3QpreviewPBx18279393531Embracinganormalisedquarter-Sep29Yield0604111519ROE372129136166186NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk10Oct2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue719208228193576719208228193576000000GrossProfit228392830233803228392830233803000000EBIT101031371617181101031371617181000000Netprofit69089355118026908935511802000000GrossMargin3183443613183443610ppt0ppt0pptEBITMargin1401671841401671840ppt0ppt0pptNetMargin96114126961141260ppt0ppt0pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue7192082281935767392695559114741-27-139-184GrossProfit228392830233803236963277040459-36-136-165EBIT101031371617181110821525519347-88-101-112Netprofit690893551180275661042613235-87-103-108GrossMargin318344361321343353-03ppt01ppt09pptEBITMargin140167184150160169-09ppt07ppt15pptNetMargin96114126102109115-06ppt05ppt11pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CTGDF-12MforwardPEbandFigure4CTGDF-12MtrailingPBbandx1-yrfwdPELTaveragex1-yrtrailingPBLTaverage9040-2SD-1SD-1SD1SD352SD-2SD7030255020153010510-Jan18Jan19Jan20Jan21Jan22Jan23JanJan19Jan23JanJan18Jan20Jan21Jan22JanSep18Sep19Sep20Sep21Sep22Sep23SepSep18SepSep19Sep20Sep21Sep22Sep23SepMay18May19May20May21May22May23May18MayMay20May21May22May23MayMay19MaySourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE210Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue525976767654433719208228193576Costofgoodssold312214488238982490815398059773Grossprofit213762279315451228392830233803Operatingexpenses1156779507456127361458616622Sellingexpense8847386140328271946210761Adminexpense163722502209251728803275Others108318391215194822432585Operatingprofit9809148437659101031371617181EBITDA10325153238231108301458518196Depreciation207192214342432525Goodwillamortisation309288358385437490EBIT9809148437659101031371617181NetInterestincomeexpense5454322013275164Foreignexchangegainloss537283190000Others68384178200200200Pre-taxprofit9672148017617100351359117145Incometax233524371429192326053286Minorityinterest119727111148120416312057Netprofit6140965450406908935511802Grossdividends195230701655226830723876BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets309713854257205617946744175346Cashequivalents147061685626892243432725831955Accountreceivables129106151200229260Inventories147331972527926350143771940895Prepayment256348398398398398Othercurrentassets114815071838183818381838Non-currentassets109481693218702211732336125265PPE1591184354347075868510264Deferredincometax151211221018101810181018Intangibles244924012458248824662391Goodwill822822822822822822FinancialassetsatFVTPL7919921970197019701970Othernon-currentassets378397527000780084008800Totalassets4191955474759088296790802100611Currentliabilities156611713617480194652042721566Short-termborrowings417411109109109109Accountpayables43275880766096441060711745Taxpayable367147222785278527852785Othercurrentliabilities724661226926692669266926Non-currentliabilities7935464300430043004300Long-termborrowings002509250925092509Othernon-currentliabilities7935461791179117911791Totalliabilities157412068221780237652472725866Sharecapital195219522069206920692069Capitalsurplus3032292118537192282016421344Retainedearnings176482534727448313973674443490Otherreserves324602519519519519Totalshareholdersequity223082961948573532135949667422Minorityinterest387151735554599065807324Totalequityandliabilities4191955474759088296790802100611PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE310Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation9672148017617100351359117145Depreciationamortization5164805727278691015Taxpaid233524371429192326053286Changeinworkingcapital288829559045515217712069Others42696011478211301348Netcashfromoperations8202832934153015947612123InvestingCapitalexpenditure123421552995319830572919Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments20651260000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term54262875000investmentsOthers262564000Netcashfrominvesting381423183807319830572919FinancingDividendpaid165834313676226830723876Netborrowings25504010000Others203861512196432632Netcashfromfinancing1383381715455236535054507NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear120321485817786268922434327258Exchangedifference331196873000Cashattheendoftheyear147061685626892243432725831955GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue82287196321144137Grossprofit13966322478239194Operatingprofit449513484319358253EBITDA438484463316347248EBIT449513484319358253Netprofit326572478371354262PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin406337284318344361Operatingmargin186219141140167184EBITDAmargin196226151151177194ReturnonequityROE291372129136166186GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx060605040404Currentratiox202233323335Receivableturnoverdays090610101010Inventoryturnoverdays172816072622257225222472Payableturnoverdays506478717717717717VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE478558763301222176PEdiluted478558763301222176PB13218279393531Divyield070604111519SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE410Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5