>> 招银国际-China Auto Sector–Sep leading indicators： Tesla new orders fell-231009
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研究报告全文：9Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaAutoSectorSepleadingindicatorsTeslanewordersfellOUTPERFORMMaintainWesummarizetheSep2023leadingindicatorsasbelowincludingnumberofChinaAutoSectorleadscustomerflowsandnewordersgeneratedforTeslaNIOLiAutoXpengBYDandAionNotethatsuchdataarebasedonasamplesizeof96stores15-SHIJiCFA18storesforeachbrandin15majorcitiesinChinaIngeneralnewordersper85237618728storeformostbrandsexceptNIOhavebeenrisingMoMsinceApr2023whichshijicmbicomhkhavebeenconsistentwithourpriorargumentthatNEVmarketshareinChinaDOUWenjingCFAcouldrisesequentiallyfortheremainderoftheyearNEVsalesvolumefor85269394751leadingplayersislikelytobestrongin4Q23Notethatthefollowingdatareflectdouwenjingcmbicomhksame-storemetricsandthetotalnewordersandothermetricswouldrisemorethanthesefiguresasmostplayershavereacceleratedtheirstoreexpansionGUSijiejasongucmbicomhkNumberofleadsallbrandsroseMoMNumberofleadsperstoreforTeslarosethemost18MoMamongallthesixbrandsinSepfollowingthelaunchofthefaceliftedModel3on1SepNumberofleadsperstoreofTeslaisstillthehighestamongallthesixbrandsseeFigure1SuchnumberforNIOonlyrose3MoMinSepthesmallestgrowthamongallthesixbrandsStocksCoveredNameTickerRatingTPLCNIOsplungeintermsofnumberofleadscustomerflowandnewordersinLiAutoLIUSBUY55Auginitiallysurprisedusasitisdifficulttoquantifythepre-buyingeffectduringLiAuto2015HKBUY215May-Jul2023whenthenewmodelspricecutsandpackageforbatteryswapGeely175HKBUY14benefitsallplayedinItturnedouttobeinlinewithNIOssalesdeclineinSepGWM2333HKBUY12TheconversionratiosfromleadstostorevisitforallthebrandsremainedGWM601633CHBUY32largelystableMoMat10-13inSepAionhadthehighestratioamongtheGAC2238HKBUY7sixbrandslastmonthfollowedbyLiAutowhileNIOhadthelowestratioforGAC601238CHBUY14EVA838HKBUY15sevenconsecutivemonthsseeFigure2Yongda3669HKBUY5CustomerflowallbrandsroseMoMexceptforAionCustomerflowperMeidong1268HKBUY72storewaslargelyinlinewiththetrendfornumberofleadslastmonthSuchNIONIOUSHOLD10numberforTeslarosethemost15MoMamongallthesixbrandsinSepXpengXPEVUSHOLD14CustomerflowperstoreforLiAutoXpengandBYDincreased4-6MoMXpeng9868HKHOLD55lastmonthSuchnumberrose2MoMforNIOandwasflatforAionlastBYD1211HKHOLD240monthCustomerflowperstoreforXpenghasbeenthelowestamongtheseBYD002594CHHOLD265sixbrandsfortwoconsecutivemonthsSourceBloombergCMBIGMTheconversionratiosfromstorevisittoordergenerationremainedstableMoMforallthebrandsinSepexceptforTeslaprobablyduetoitspricehikeofRMB28000forthefaceliftedModel3BYDstillhadthehighestratio11RelatedReportsamongthesixbrandswhileNIOhadthelowestconversionratio4inSepChinaAutoSectorMostNEVbrandsSepsalesvolumeontrack3Oct2023NewordersLiAutorosemostMoMTeslasnewordersperstorefellMoMforthefirsttimeinthepastsixmonthsseeFigure5followingthepricehikeChinaAutoSectorMoreNEVmodelrolloutsasapositivecatalyst25SepforthefaceliftedModel3LiAutosnewordersperstorerosethemost122023MoMinSep2023aidedbyitsinsurancesubsidyofRMB10000pervehicleItsneworderalsoreachedarecordhighofover40000unitsinSepNIOsneworderperstorehasfallentothelowestamongthesixbrandssinceAug2023ItappearstousthatthenewES6andpricecuteffectshavebeengraduallyfadingawayNewordersperstoreforNIOcouldbecappedastheautomakercontinuedtoexpandstoresandsalespersonnelaggressivelyThenewG9launchedon19SepsboosttoXpengskeyleadingindicatorsappearstobemoderateinthefirst10daysPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk9Oct2023Figure1NumberofleadsperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure2ConversionratiofromleadstostorevisitforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure3CustomerflowperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE29Oct2023Figure4ConversionratiofromstorevisittonewordergenerationforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure5NewordersperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE39Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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