研究报告全文：10Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateTongchengTravel780HKBUYMaintainSharegaincontinuedinGoldenWeekTargetPriceHK251PreviousTPHK251UpDownside630DespitemixedindustrialdatafordomestictourismintheGoldenWeekweexpectCurrentPriceHK154TCtocontinuouslygainsharewithstronghotelgrowthandlong-haultravelrecoveryWeforecastTCsroomnight100vs2019airticketingvolumeChinaEntertainmentSector30andtrainsvolumeatsingle-digitgrowthintheGoldenWeekThistrendislargelyinlinewithsummerholidayWekeepconfidentonTCs3Q23EgrowthSophieHuangrevforecastunchangedat56YoY55vs2019levelandexpect4Q23E85239000889rev96YoY51vs2019backedbystronghotelintheGoldenWeekandsophiehuangcmbicomhkresilientdemandfromexam-relatedaccommodationRecentpricepullbackmightbetriggeredbymixedindustrialdataprofit-takingandmarketconcernonEasonXuFY2425EnormalizationWereiteratedourconfidenceinTCsresilientgrowth85239000849andprofitabilityaheadandexpectoutboundtourismtobringfurtherupsideWeeasonxucmbicomhkkeepfinancialsunchangedwithTPatHK25125xFY23EPEStockDataMktCapHKmn35181StronggrowthinGoldenWeekdespitemixedindustrialdataAvg3mthstoHKmn7082AccordingtotheMinistryofCultureandTourismdomestictourism52wHighLowHK20401162volumerevintheGoldenWeek415vs2019levelinwhichvolumeTotalIssuedSharesmn2252SourceBloombergmissedexpectationHoweverweseehighvisibilityforTCtocontinuouslygainsharewitheye-catchinghotelbusinessandlong-haultravelrecoveryShareholdingStructureForhotelweforecastTCsroomnight100vs2019withlower-tierTencent211citiesroomnightgrowthhigherthanhigh-tieronesBlendADRmightbeTripcom206slightlylowerthan2019levelforhigherratioofroomnightsinlow-tiercitiesTRowePrice50SourceBloombergwhiletakeratekeptrelativelystableinourestimatesFortransportationweforecastairticketingvolume30vs2019whileprice16TrainsSharePerformancevolumemightberelativelymoderatesingle-digit-growthvs2019forhighAbsoluteRelativebaseandstrategicpriorityshifttomonetizationTrainsvolumerecovery1-mth-87-503-mth-2227wouldbebetterthanMayLaborWeekWeforecasttrainsrevtosurge906-mth-6093vs2019Forotherbusinessdomesticpackagetourmightrecoverto60SourceBloombergof2019levelwithprice24inourestimatesTouristattractionsvolume190vs2019Foroutboundtourismweestimateinternationalair12-mthPricePerformanceticketingvolume4price30whilehotelroomnight14ADR10HK780HKHSIrebased25Confidentonsolid3Q23Ewithfull-yeartargetintactAsthemajorityof20transportationrevintheGoldenweekwillberecognizedin3Q23EwekeepconfidentonTCs3Q23Egrowthrevforecastunchangedat56YoY5515vs2019inwhichtransportationhotelothersrev673190YoYFor104Q23Eweforecastrev96YoY51vs2019backedbystronghotel5intheGoldenWeekandresilientexam-relatedaccommodation0MaintainBUYWekeepTCsFY23-25EearningsforecastunchangedOct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23MaintainBUYwithDCF-basedTPatHK251SourceBloombergEarningsSummaryAuditorPwCYE31DecFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn6585115871392416047YoYgrowth13760202153AdjnetincomeRMBmn646210225002877AdjEPSRMB029094111128YoYgrowth512252190151ConsensusEPSRMBNA081100118PEx493148125108PSx49282320NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk10Oct2023Figure1QuarterlyrevestimatesFigure2Hotelbizgrowthestimates35001401200120RMBmn120RMBmn300011794100100100025008080608002000515460564060040150020276312004001000-19-9-200500200-40-200-601Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q23E0-401Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q23ETotalrevenueYoYAccomodationrevenueYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure33Q23financialpreviewRMBmn2Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23QoQYoYConsensusDiffRevenue213819391846171813192048150025862866318711563218-1OperatingProfit3352806513812839546541751523NA45314Netprofit29122627101135943237836040212NA410-2Adjnetprofit41834325024511225237504592570-4126578-1MarginGrossMargin764739205725709740720750755760749OperatingMargin1571443580-97-1904180146162141Adjnetmargin1951771361438512325195207179180GrowthRevenueYoY781131865-38356-1885051174556571RevenueQoQ325-93-48-70-232553-268724108112123OperatingProfit5807-44-296-360NANANA2377424714190NAAdjnetprofit1131-79-185-173-732-266-850105642891264NASourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure4RevenuebreakdownRMBmn2Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23EQoQYoYTotalrevenue21381939184617181319204815002586286631871156Accommodationreservation74364556254354481950983410551075231Transportationticketing12351125107510176209877561383149516521167Others1601702091581562432353693164604590SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue11587139241604711517139511636906-02-20GrossProfit87391052912155864310482123141104-13OperatingProfit17132133252616412135268944-01-60Adjnetprofit210225002877211325513041-05-20-54AdjEPSRMB09411112808110011815310890GrossMargin75475675775075175204ppts05ppts05pptsOperatingMargin14815315714215316405ppts00ppts-07pptsAdjnetmargin181180179183183186-02ppts-03ppts-07pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesBloombergPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE210Oct2023Figure6DCFvaluationDCFValuationRmbmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032EEBIT23822852329541525124620373788637996311340Tax293365432511631764909106412271397DA394400279290302312321329336342Changeinworkingcapital1398724663676689703717732746761CAPEX200200200210221232243255268281FCF885196322803045388448165830691580579242FCFGrowthNA1221634282421191715PV8851709173020122236241425462630266925922TerminalValue80602AssumptionsWACC148Taxrate170Riskfreerate395Beta120Marketriskreturn130Costofequity148DebtAssets00Longtermgrowth30Debt0WACC1314151617EquityValue15279254237216201PV4475220285259242219204minusNetdebtRmbmn7740Terminal25293265246223207minusMinorityinterestRmbmn01growthrate30300271251227210EquityValueRmbmn5249235309278257231213FX09340319285263235217EquityValueHKmn5644345330293269240220TargetPriceHKbasedonDCF251SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure7CompstableCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSFY23-25EPSUSDmnRaitingTPFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ECAGRTongchengTravel780HK4522HKD16BUY2514812510828232017ChinaInternetGiantsAlibabaBABAUS218887USD86BUY15793877817151411Meituan3690HK87008HKD109BUY17829619312823191651Average9314010320171531OTACtripTCOMUS21904USD34BUY4616013911936312716BookingBKNGUS108841USD3049NANA20518116151464218ExpediaEXPEUS14405USD100NANA100887411101024WebjetWEBAU1573AUD6NANA21617214954464220TripAdvisorTRIPUS2204USD16NANA1621109013121032Average16913811928252222TravelagencyUTour002707CH947CNY7NANANA350230150705156ZhangjiajieTourism000430CH374CNY7NANANANANANANANANAChangbaiMountain603099CH453CNY12NANA29823218959484126Average29829120937282326HotelHWorldGroupHTHTUS12072USD38NANA23921017842383516JinjiangIntHotels600754CH4669CNY35NANA25018614123211934BTGHotelsGroup600258CH2476CNY16NANA24817514423211931GreenTreeGHGUS440USD4NANA1091048919171610Average21116913827242223Average19817113630252322SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE310Oct2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue75386585115871392416047Profitbeforetax875117172621462539Accommodation24092415383549565952DA384389394400279reservationTransportationticketing44583379617070697856Changeinworkingcapital13284241398724663Others671791158118982239Others14835495282COGS18901807284733953893Netcashfromoperating2897248390736373831RD13441414176122562664Capexinvestments200200200200200SM30362801453053056034STinvestmentspayments529102000Administrativeexpenses572701735835931STinvestmentsproceeds00000Fairvaluechange124102000Other407277000Otherincome98154000Netcashfrominvesting322580200200200Othergainslossesnet69114000Operatingprofit89524171321332526Equityraised00000Changeofdebts490000Financeincome1279131313Others1279131313Otherincomenet3314000Netcashfromfinancing6279131313Pre-taxprofit875117172621462539Netchangeincash2513253369434243618Incometax16146293365432Exchangedifference00000CashatthebeginningoftheLessMinorityinterests1018000180443184065775911183yearNetprofit723146143317812108Cashattheendoftheyear4318406577591118314801Adjnetprofit1308646210225002877Cashatbalancesheet2046406577591118314801BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENon-currentassets1413313733133011284912321SalesmixAccommodationPPE13641446152315951592320367331356371reservationInvestments19561956195619561956Transportationticketing591513533508490Landuseright016161616Others89120136136140Intangibleassets83487858731867786237Total10001000100010001000Deferredincometax175175175175175assetsPrepaymentother95485102117PLratiosreceivablesGrossMargin749726754756757Currentassets73739344141531811922230PreTaxMargin116-18149154158Accountreceivable19301620273532773769TaxRate170180170170170Short-terminvestments33433604360436043604Adjnetmargin17498181180179Restrictedcash5555555555Cashandcashequivalent2046406577591118314801BalancesheetratiosCurrentratiox1623222325Currentliabilities47114023656778509020Debtorsturnoverdays325548548548548Borrowings2020202020Creditorsturnoverdays3655337718191097511Tradepayables22072529398647535450Inventoryturnoverdays0000000000OtherpayablesandNetNetNetNetNet24371416249129943450NetdebtequityratioaccrualscashcashcashcashcashCurrentincometaxes49587084101liabilitiesReturnsNon-currentliabilities15361536153615361536ROE49-108797101Borrowings9494949494ROA35-07576164Deferredincometax497497497497497liabilitiesOtherpayablesand946946946946946PersharedataaccrualsAdjEPSRMB0603091113Totalnetassets1525915504173371956822176DPSRMB0000000000Non-controllinginterest3922222222BVPSRMB6869778799Totalequity1521915482173151954622154SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE410Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5