研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary12Oct2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketsentimentcontinuedtoimprovethismorningAsianIGbenchmarksGlennKoCFA高志和were1-2bpstighterandwesawactivebuyingflowsonfront-endTMTSOE85236576235bondsEHICARswereunchangedto025ptandLEEMANperpstayedglennkocmbicomhkunchangedpostannouncementofrepurchaseHRINTHThe4throundofsizeablebuy-backannouncedHRINTHsup025to06ptthismorningSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkMEDCIJAnnounceduptocUSD425mntenderofferandconcurrentnewissuesMEDCIJsrose04to15ptsthismorningSeebelowJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayovernightUSTyieldstightened3-7bpsaheadofThursdayCPIInChineseSOETMTbenchmarksHAOHUA30stightened2bpstocloseT170168TENCNTsweretradedinactivetwo-wayflowsandclosed1-2bpstighterIntheBBBTMTsMEITUAWB30stightened5bpsInfinancialsAMCsweremixedHRINTH24s25stightened10-20bpswhilerestoftheHRINTHcurvewasstableinspreadsLastnightHuarongannouncedfurtherbondrepurchasestotaledUSD18665mninprincipalamountSeebelowforcommentsThefrontendofCCAMCLswerebetter-offeredInChinesebankT2sBOCOHK31sCCB29swereunderbettersellingInChineseAT1sICBCAS32PerpCINDBK48Perpgrinded01pthigheronlowerratesThaibankAT1sKBANKBBLTBpapersgainedanother05-08ptaftergaining02-07ptonTuesdayTherecentnewBBLTB28s33sweremixedwith28sunderbetterbuyingwhilst33swerebetterofferedInKoreaspaceLGENSODAESEC26sweresubduedHKIGsAIAHKLSP33swereunderbettersellingInHKCorpperpsNWDEVLPerpsdeclined03ptCKINF485PerpCKINF42Perplowered05-19ptsChinesepropertieswereweakCSCHCNsweredown18-31ptsGEMDAL24were26ptslowerLNGFORsdeclined03-07ptPINGRE24sontheothertraded22ptshigherInindustrialsEHICAR24s26swereup02-06ptEHICARannouncedthatithasrepurchasedUSD46425mnofitsdue-2024sWeestimatethatonlyUSD32mnwererepurchasedafterDec22SeeNewsandmarketcolorbelowAACTEC31wasup18ptsInMacaugamingnamesMPELSANLTDWYNMAC27-29swere05-08pthigherInIndianspaceVEDLN24s25sgained12-14ptsIndonesiannamesMEDCIJswereup03ptMedcoEnergiannouncedtenderofferandconcurrentnewissuethismorningSeebelowIntheLGFVPerpspacethereweremorebuyingflowsfromcashdeploymentneedsThehigher-yieldingnamescontinuedtobesought-afterShandongChongqingnamesSHGUOHCQNANA26swerebetterbidWealsosawapickupindemandfor6-handlepapersastheratesoutlookPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk112Oct2023turnedmorebullishagainamidrisinggeopoliticaltensionsintheMiddleEastThesebondsremainedwelldigesteddespitesomesporadicsellingflowsCPDEV575Perpwas05pthigherFRESHK25s26sgained04-06ptInSOEPerpsCTIH64Perpwastradedaround60withadecentamountoftwo-wayflowsCHPWCNCNBGPerpswerebetterbidatlow-6to6againbyChineseRMsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangePINGRE23407292482822CSCHCN9121124411-31AACTEC33406023172518GEMDAL495081224366-26TAISEM41204225286017CKINF42PERP670-19SINOPE4609124884016CSCHCN9062624477-18SINOPE53810174394616ROADKG52011226361-12MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP043Dow019andNasdaq071continuedtoroseinfourthconsecutivedayonWednesdayThemeetingminutesofSepFOMCshowsthatmostFedofficialswerecautiousaboutfutureinterestratehikewhilemorethanhalfofficialsexpectedanotherratehikewithin2023USSepPPIincreased09momwashigherthantheexpectationof03momThelong-termUSTyieldsmovedloweryesterday251030yieldreached499459458473respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点HRINTHThe4throundofsizeablebuy-backannouncedBetween28Sep23-11Oct23HuarongboughtbackUSDbondstotaledUSD18665mninprincipalamountThefocusesremaintobeonlonger-datedandlowercashpricebondsInaggregateHuarongannouncedbondrepurchasestotaledcUSD930mnequivalentinprincipalamountsince19Sep23OutoftheseweestimatethatatleastcUSD480mnwererepurchasedafter19Sep23Takingcuesfromthemodestpricingmovementafterthesizeablerepurchaseswesuspectthatasignificantpartoftherepurchaseswereconductedthroughdirectrepurchasesfrommajorholdersinsteadofon-marketrepurchasesWeestimatethatnetdebtreductionandgainfromtherepurchasestobecUSD215mnequivalenttocRMB16bnHuarongsnetdebtswereRMB7363bnasatJun23anditreportednetlossesofRMB60bnin1H23Tousthesignificanceofthesuccessiverepurchasesfocusingonlonger-datedandlowercashpricebondslieonthesignalofHuarongsstrongconfidenceonitsnear-termliquidityHuarongrepaidUSD600mnofHRINTH2093023on30Sep23andisyettoannouncerepurchaseofshorter-datedUSDbondsAsdiscussedinourcommentson6Oct23Huarongraised3-yearonshorefinancialbondsofRMB20bncUSD27bnatacouponrateof31on16Aug23Thegoodaccesstolow-costonshorefundingoffersHuarongthefinancialflexibilitytocontinuetherepurchasesofitsoffshorebondsWeexpectHuarongaswellasotherChineseAMCstorepurchasetheiroffshorebondstodeleverageandlowerfundingcostsHRINTHsareourtoppicksoftheChineseAMCsectorWithintheHRINTHcurveourpreferencesareHRINTH375052924HRINTH55011625andHRINTH425Perpcallable093025WealsolikeGRWALL395Perpcallable073124aftertherecentpricecorrectionandCCAMCL44Perpcallable031126asalowbetaplay212Oct2023SourceCompanyfillingsBloombergMEDCIJAnnounceduptocUSD425mntenderofferandconcurrentnewissuesMedcoEnergiannounceduptocUSD425mntenderofferforitsUSDbondsonOct12andconcurrentnewissueofbenchmarksize55NC2USDbondsThetenderofferwillbefundedwithcUSD340mnloansfromBankMandiriinSep23cUSD67mnIDRbondsissuedinJul23andcUSD18mninternalsourcesThetenderofferisnotconditionaluponontheconcurrentnewissueThisisthesecondtenderofferfromMedcoEnergiwithinoneyearRecalledthatinNov22thecompanyrepurchasedUSD255102mnofMEDCIJ675013025at98andcancelledUSD264602mnofMEDCIJ675013025afterrepurchasesofanotherUSD95mnfromopenmarketTheconcurrent55NC2USDbondsexpectedratingB1BBbyMSFwillbeissuedviasubsidiarywithguaranteefromparenttorefinanceexistingdebtsorreplacecommittedbutcurrentlyundrawnfacilitieswhichmayincludethefinancingrelatingtopotentialacquisitionof20interestsinaproducingassetsinmiddleeastThepotentialacquisitioncanbefundedwithcompanysexistingresourcesandthecompletionofacquisitionisnotconditionaluponthenewissueosamountMaximumEarlytenderofferLatetenderofferEarlytenderExpirationNotesUSDmnamountconsiderationconsiderationdeadlinedeadlineMEDCIJ675013025235098Anyandall1012982MEDCIJ737505142653360660100975PMEST255PMEST9MEDCIJ63750130275707346096259325Oct23Nov23MEDCIJ695111228372670955925SourceCompanyfillingsOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuespricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFShinhanBankCoLtdUSD-5yrSOFR110Aa3AANewsandmarketcolor312Oct2023Regardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere28creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB25bnAsforMonth-to-date129creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB122bnraisedrepresentinga217yoydecreaseMediareportedthatChinacentralgovernmenthasallowedlocalgovernmentstoapplyforcreditbackedbyacentralbanklendingprogramtorepaylocaldebtsADEINMediareportedthatAdaniGrouptiesupUSD37bnrefinancingdealfromconsortiumincludingatleast20banksAGILEMediareportedthatAgileismullingtosellacommercialcomplexinShanghaiforRMB6bncUSD825mnAgileGroupremittedfundstorepayRMB12bn16Yaju03bonddueon11OctAPSEZAPSEZannouncedresultsofuptoUSD195mntenderofferfor3375seniornotesdue2024USD212972mnbondswerevalidlytenderedCAPGChinaAoyuanannounced72ofICAdebt22ofnon-ICAdebtaccedetoRSAschemehearingsseton31OctinHKandCaymancourtsCHADECChangdeUrbanConstructionandInvestmentGrouptoissueUSD100mn59creditenhancedbondsdue2026EHICAReHiCarServicesannouncedtherepurchasesUSD46425mnofEHICAR775111424ThecompanyboughtbackUSD7mninSep21andUSD362mnbetweenMarandDec22HencetherepurchasesconductedSinceDec22wereUSD32mnTotaloutstandingamountofEHICAR775111424reducedtoUSD403575mnGLPSPGLPexpectsassetmonetizationstoexceedUSD10bnincomingmonthsHONGQIMoodysaffirmedChinaHongqiaosBa2CFRandchangedoutlooktonegativeonweakenedliquidityprofileLEEMANLeeManPaperManufacturingannouncedthefurtherrepurchasesofUSD2383mnofLEEMAN55PERPsincetenderofferinDec22SHARAOShangraoCityConstructionInvestmentDevelopmenttoissueUSD67mn85bondsdue2026SINOCESino-OceanServiceshareholdersapprovecUSD87mnpropertyassetsacquisitionfromSino-OceanGroupSUNSHIYangoGroupdenieddetentionofultimatecontrollerLinTengjiaoVEDLNVedantaincorporatedwholly-ownedsubsidiaryVedantaBaseMetalstowardsimplementationofdemergerschemeFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBank412Oct2023AuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5