>> 招银国际-Fixed Income Daily Market Update(11 Oct 2023)-231011
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研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary11Oct2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报AsianIGspacerecoveredpostFedofficialsdovishcommentsoninterestGlennKoCFA高志和rateTENCNTBABASINOCHtightened1-2bpsandhigh-betanames85236576235tightened5-10bpsLGFVspacewasalsounderbetterbuyingwithimprovedglennkocmbicomhksentimentLGFVAnother5localgovernmentsissuecRMB320bnspecialrefinancingbondstoswaphiddendebtsSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkGLPSPGLPraisedUSD240mninnewcapitalforfourChinalogisticsindustrialparksGLPSPsmoved-01to075ptthismorningJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayUST51030yrtightened171513bpsfromFridaywidesrespectivelyonthebackofthedovishcommentsofFEDandIsraelgeopoliticalissuesChineseSOETMTbenchmarkswereunchangedto2bpswiderHAOHUATENCNT30swerebetter-soldThelong-endofSOEpaperswerefirmwhilstthefront-endpaperswereunderprofittakingThehigh-betaTMTsMEITUAWB30swere5bpstighterInfinancialsHRINTHcurvewastraded025-1pthigherCCAMCLswereunderbettersellingonthefrontendChinesebankT2swereunchangedinspreadsdespiteratesvolatilityTherewerebettersellingflowsinNANYAN29sInChinesebenchmarkAT1sBCHINAICBCASPerpsclosed01-025pthigherThaiEuropeanAT1sclosed025-075pthigheronthebackoftheratesmoveamidtwo-wayflowsamongPBsInthenon-ChinaspaceBBLTB28s33sgrinded2-3bpstighterSGT2sweresubduedDBSSPUOBSPOCBCSPpaperswereunderbettersellingInKoreaspaceEIBKORcurvewasbetterbidandDAESEC26stightened2bpsHKCorpspaceperformmixedNWDEVL27sgainedanother11-16ptsOntheotherhandNWDEVLCKINFPerpsdeclined05-07ptCKPH35Perpdropped2ptsHKChinesepropertiesperformedsoftlyGEMDAL24sdropped47ptsLNGFOR27-32sweredown12-22ptsDALWAN24s26sdeclined09-14ptsAGILE25sweredown08-12ptsYLLGSP24s26sweredown05ptCOGARDslowered05ptCOGARDfailedtomakeHKD470mnduepaymentandexpectsnottomeetoffshoreobligationswhendueIthasengagedfinanciallegaladvisorstoformulateaholisticoffshoredebtrestructuringInindustrialsEHICARswereup025ptInMacaugamingnamesSANLTDSTCITYWYNMAC28-30swere08-1pthigherIndianrenewablesGRNKENsRPVINswere03-05pthigherWhilstVEDLN26sweredown05ptIndonesiannamesMEDCIJ27s28swere07pthigherLMRTSP24s26swereup02pttocloseathigh-60sElsewhereMONMINGLPCHI26swere02pthigherPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk111Oct2023TheLGFVPerpspaceshadahecticdayasUSTcurveopenedaround15bpstighterinlightofgeopoliticaltensionsTheratesmovetriggereddeploymentbuyingfromChineseAMsmainlyinSOEPerpsandtoalesserextentinqualityLGFVsThesepapersweretradedupto25bpstighterdespitesomemodestprofittakingflowsintotherallyMeanwhilethehigher-yieldingLGFVsweretradedinmixedtwo-wayflowsasyieldsslowlyretracedfromlastmonthstightsamidrisinghurdlecostsandrequiredriskpremiumfromonshoreaccountsWealsosawsomesellingflowsfromPBsAMsonnamessuchasCPDEVZHHFGRBCDHGRamidtheCOGARDpotentialrestructuringnewsInSOEperpsCHPWCN425PerpHUANEN308Perpweredown01ptLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeCNPCCH595042841100017GEMDAL495081224393-47NWDEVL57806162783316LNGFOR338041327582-22TAISEM41204225284316CKPH312PERP521-19TAISEM31410255166115LNGFOR395091629482-14NWDEVL43401232783611DALWAN11021326355-14MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP052Dow040andNasdaq058ralliedhigheronTuesdaypostFedofficialsdovishcommentsAtlantaFedPresidentsaidFeddoesnotneedtoraiseinterestratesanyfurtherandheseesnorecessionaheadThelong-termUSTyieldsmovedloweryesterdaytheyieldcurvebullflattenedand251030yieldreached496462466485respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点LGFVAnother5localgovernmentsissuecRMB320bnspecialrefinancingbondstoswaphiddendebtsAfterInnerMongoliaissuedcRMB663bncUSD91bnspecialrefinancingbondson9Oct23toswaplocalhiddendebtslocalgovernmentsofLiaoningYunnanGuangxiChongqingandTianjinscheduledtoissuecRMB2533bncUSD347bnsuchbondstoalleviatetheliquiditypressureoflocalgovernmentsanditsLGFVsAccordingtopreviousmediareportsthecentralgovernmenthaddirected12provincialgovernmentswithhighercreditriskincludingsixprovincesandcitiesmentionedabovetoreportallassetscanbemonetizedandtakeausteritymeasuresBesidesthe12provincialgovernmentmayissueRMB1-15tncUSD137-205bnrefinancingbondstoswaptheoff-balance-sheetdebtsincurredbylocalgovernmentsandduemainlytoLFGVsWeviewthatGuizhouHubeiJilinShaanxiandGansumayfollowsuittorelievehiddendebtsastheseprovinceshavehigherLGFVdebtsfiscalincomeratiosandweakereconomicfundamentalthanotherprovincesSincetheChinesePolitburomeetinginJul23tabledapackageofmeasurestodefuselocalgovernmentdebtriskwehaveseenmoreforcefulmeasuressuchasissuanceofrefinancingbondsandmonetizationofstate-ownedassetsAdditionallymediaalsoreportedthatChinacentralgovernmentconsiderstoincreaseFY23fiscaldeficitandissuecRMB1tncUSD137bnsovereignbondstoboosteconomicgrowthAnimprovingeconomicenvironmentmayfurtherfacilitatetosolvehiddendebtsoflocalgovernments211Oct2023LGFVdebtsProvinceAmountRMBbnIssuancedateFY22RMBmnLiaoning87012Oct231375InnerMongolia6639Oct232775Yunnan53316Oct2316798Guangxi49816Oct2317484Chongqing42216Oct2320547Tianjin21010Oct231453373512Total3196OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuespricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere49creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB49bnAsforMonth-to-date102creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB94bnraisedrepresentinga209yoyincreaseADANIGMediareportedthatAdanimadeprogresstowardssecuringaroundUSD35bnsyndicatedloantorefinanceAmbujadebtas3potentialconsortiumbanksgetinternalnodsCOGARDHKbasedKingboardHoldingsissueddemandtothecompanyforrepaymentofcertainsumsdueandpayableunderHKD188bntermloanfacilityEHOUSEE-HouseChinaEnterpriseproposedtoholdCaymanSchemeMeetingsandHKSchemeMeetingson14Nov23GEMDALGemdaleplanstoresellRMB294bnputof395notesdue2025GLPSPGLPraisedUSD240mninnewcapitalforfourChinalogisticsindustrialparksKAISAGMediareportedthatKaisaGroupcreditorswouldgetbelow5ofmoneybackifcompanywasforcedintoliquidationThegroupswinding-uppetitionhearingwasfurtheradjournedLNGFORLongforGroupacquiredXianlandparcelforRMB927mninSepSHDOISShandongIronandSteelproposedtoofferRMB1bn2N-yearextendableMTNstorepaydebts311Oct2023TYLCDITaiyuanLongchengDevelopmentInvestmentproposedtoofferuptoRMB500mextendableMTNstorepaydebtsThenoteswouldconsistofa2N-yeartrancheanda3N-yeartrancheFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport4
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