研究报告全文：MN13Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateJDcomJDUSBusinessadjustmentimpactlikelytakingtimetobedigestedTargetPriceUS5650DuetomacroheadwindsweexpectJDcomsJD3Q23ErevenuegrowthtoPreviousTPUS6200beslowerthanconsensusexpectationsalsopartlyimpactedbybusinessUpDownside862adjustmentJDisexploringmoreeffectivewaystostimulateGMVgrowthamidCurrentPriceUS3034weakeningconsumptionsentimentButweexpectJDtocontinuetodrivefurtherplatformecosystemimprovementbetterfulfillingconsumersvalueforqualityChinaInternetdemandtofendoffcompetitionmaintainGMVmarketshareandconsumerSaiyiHECFAwallet-shareWebelieveitwillcontinuetoinvestinthesegoalswhilebalancing85239161739impactsonmarginsamidthecurrentconsumptiondemandenvironmentTohesaiyicmbicomhkaccountforlonger-than-expectedimpactfrombusinessadjustmentandgreater-than-expectedimpactfrommacroheadwindswelowerDCF-basedtargetpriceYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkby89toUS565previousUS620whichtranslatesinto19x2023EPEnon-GAAPMaintainBUYWentaoLUCFAJDRetailexplorationtoreviverevenueandearningsgrowthWeluwentaocmbicomhkforecastJDRetailJDRrevenuetodeclineby06YoYin3Q23EpreviousStockDataforecastgrowthof23YoY4shyofBloombergconsensusmainlyMktCapUSmn482558owingto1longer-than-expectedimpactfrombusinessadjustmentand2Avg3mthstoUSmn1518greater-than-expectedmacroheadwindsWecutourfull-yearrevenue52wHighLowUS66102839growthforecastforJDRin2023to05YoYpreviousforecast36JDTotalIssuedSharesmn15905SourceFactSethasadjusteditsKPImeasurementmetricsforJDRshiftingfromafocusonrevenuetoGMVgrowthprofitabilityandcashflowwhichinourviewshouldShareholdingStructurehelpbolsteritsGMVshareThestrategicmovetoenhancetheplatformRichardQiangdongLiu138MaxSmartLimitied133ecosystemshouldalsobenefitlong-termplatformbusinessrevenueandSourceHKExearningsgrowthSharePerformance3Q23resultspreviewmacroheadwindsweighedonrevenuegrowthAbsoluteRelativeFor3Q23EweestimateJDloggedrevenueofRMB2459bnup10YoY1-mth-44-36ourpreviousforecast373shortofBloombergconsensusestimates3-mth-189-174WeforecastJDtohaverecordednon-GAAPnetincomeofRMB88bn6-mth-179-283largelyinlinewithourpreviousforecastbutwas45shortofBloombergSourceFactSetconsensusOurnon-GAAPnetincomeforecastimpliesanon-GAAPnet12-mthPricePerformancemarginof36in3Q233Q2241ReviserevenueandearningsforecastsToaccountforgreater-than-expectedimpactfrommacroheadwindsandbusinessadjustmentwecut2023Erevenueforecastby3toRMB11tnandcutnon-GAAPnetincomeforecastby2for2023EtoRMB326bnasweassumegreaterSMinvestmentmaybeneededtoretainconsumerwalletshareThesetranslatesintoabroadlyunchangednon-GAAPnetmarginforecastof30SourceFactSetfor2023E202227AlthoughbusinesstransformationstilltakestimetobearfruitJDscurrentvaluationof10x2023EPEnon-GAAPisnotdemandinginourviewascomparedtoindustryaverageof21xFig4EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn9515921046236107525711487151211077YoYgrowth27699286854NetprofitRMBmn35596103800207954290109346727AdjustednetprofitRMBmn172071282200326030354027413081EPSAdjustedRMB10751774205022262597ConsensusEPSRMBnana207724803242PEAdjustedx1831171019380PBx3829151311SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Oct2023RevisioninfinancialforecastandtargetpriceFigure1JDforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue107531148712111110581215813146-28-55-79GrossProfit160617611886163718352002-19-40-58Non-GAAPnetprofit326354413331369437-15-40-55GrossMargin14915315614815115201ppt02ppt03pptNon-GAAPnetmargin30313430303300ppt00ppt01pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue107531148712111109431205513074-17-47-74GrossProfit160617611886161418131983-05-28-49Non-GAAPnetprofit326354413344389452-51-89-85GrossMargin14915315614715015202ppt03ppt04pptNon-GAAPnetmargin303134313235-01ppt-01ppt00pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesWecutourtargetpriceby89toUS565basedonDCFvaluationmethodologyWACCof118andterminalgrowthof15theWACCisunchangedwhiletheterminalgrowthrateisloweredfrom20to15Ourtargetpricetranslatesinto191x2023EPEnon-GAAPFigure3JDDCFvaluationWACCof118andterminalgrowthof15RMBbn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ETotalrevenue10751149121112641308134513751399NPVofFCF231244Discountedterminalvalue274306Totalequityvaluation586658Noofsharesdilutedmn15911591ValuationpershareUSD532597TPpershareUSD565SourceCMBIGMestimatesNoteourtargetpriceisbasedontheweightedaverageofsix-monthtargetpricein2023Eandsix-monthtargetpricein2024EPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Oct2023Figure4IndustryvaluationcompsCompaniesTickerPricePExPSxLocal2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025EChinaTencent700HK3166191163143464137AlibabaGroupBABAUS862958777171514PinduoduoPDDUS1075233188149493831Meituan3690HK1184349235153252117NetEaseNTESUS1079172167184484440BaiduBIDUUS1299133126113242220JDcomJDUS2841008464030303Kuaishou1024HK650366191126232018BeikeBEKEUS165206169165201716JDHealth6618HK404387308218221815TMETMEUS68139132116323128VIPShopVIPSUS160807874060505AliHealth241HK50NANANA201717BossZhipinBZUS162376279208907055SenseTime20HK15NANANA1108566BilibiliBILIUS143NANANA191614Kingsoft3888HK289479314219413631TCEL780HK164188152129302521ChinaLiterature772HK301210183152383431WeiboWBUS129605451171615PinganHealthcare1833HK187NANANA363127CloudVillage9899HK835262197139211917DadaDADAUS45NA16690070605Average213165129322824SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesNotedataasat11Oct2023marketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue7458029515921046236107525711487151211077Costofgoodssold6366948225258991639146639725791022502Grossprofit109108129067147073160594176136188575Operatingexpenses96766124926127350129742136812142423Sellingexpense271563874337772403224192842993Adminexpense64091156211053107531148712111RDexpense161491633216893162361677117076Others470515828861632624316662570242Operatingprofit12343414119723308533932446152Othergainslosses325565901555000ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV4291491821958600EBIT49191136715973309393932446152Interestincome162812132106250527112461Pre-taxprofit50819258113867284333661443691Incometax148218874176735873238738Aftertaxprofit4933744679691210752929134953Minorityinterest75924697280280280Discontinuedoperations000000Others7168000Netprofit49405356010380207952901134673Adjustednetprofit168281720728220326033540341308BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets234801299672351074372270407440452209Cashequivalents86085707677886196949125363164335Restrictedcash443459266254625462546254Accountreceivables71121190020576235672517726544Inventories589337560177949780998304487306Prepayment70771145615156151561515615156Othercurrentassets71161124023152278152245152446152614Non-currentassets187487196835244176244676255017263965PPE225973294455080555806592174869Right-of-useassets154841998722267222672226722267Deferredincometax53311111536153615361536InvestmentinJVsassos585016322257641576415764157641Intangibles646358379139913991399139Goodwill109041243323123231232312323123Othernon-currentassets730056130075390753907539075390Totalassets422288496507595250616946662457716173Currentliabilities174017221636266561258551264664272668Short-termborrowings0436812146121461214612146Accountpayables106818140484160607152861157211163740Taxpayable302925685926592659265926Othercurrentliabilities286213308337624373593912340598Leaseliabilities551466657688768876887688Accruedexpenses300353446942570425704257042570Non-currentliabilities266522808754566654926691168559Long-termborrowings12531938610224211502256924217Deferredincome161812971107110711071107Othernon-currentliabilities125031740443235432354323543235Totalliabilities200669249723321127324043331575341227Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus153357208912213366211351220318229711Retainedearnings3741800207954980684479Otherreserves139001212590590590590Totalshareholdersequity204677210124213956232736270715314779Minorityinterest169433666160167601676016760167Totalequityandliabilities422288496507595250616946662457716173PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE413Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation50819258113867284333661443691Depreciationamortization606862327236525257416191Taxpaid148218874176735873238738Changeinworkingcapital186781894822119111186432207Others315392158818773808186879112Netcashfromoperations425444230157819232904307752463InvestingCapitalexpenditure93401905738165161291608215138Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments78807181916184792000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term35379126934171853000investmentsOthers50422092922000Netcashfrominvesting578117424854026161291608215138FinancingNetborrowings4784297570271092614201647Proceedsfromshareissues66288224785847000Others000000Netcashfromfinancing710721950311801092614201647NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear39912905197669385115103203131617Exchangedifference519813823449000Cashattheendoftheyear905197669385115103203131617170589GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue29327699286854Grossprofit292183140929771Operatingprofit3726653763564275174EBIT2894nana937271174Netprofit3055nana1003395195Adjnetprofit5652364015586167PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin146136141149153156Operatingmargin170419293438Adjnetprofitmargin231827303134ReturnonequityROE327174993115118GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx040303030304Currentratiox131413141517Receivableturnoverdays333657757778Inventoryturnoverdays335299312311302304Payableturnoverdays565549611625582573VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE128na593166119100PEdiluted131na604169121102PB313829151311SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE513Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6