五矿期货-能源化工期权日报-231013

>> 五矿期货-能源化工期权日报-231013

上传日期：	2023/10/13	大小：	841KB
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研究报告全文：能源化工期权日报期权研究2023年10月13日星期五基本面信息卢品先橡胶9月顺丁橡胶实际消费量为114万吨环比略下滑但较去年同期增长175前9个月累计消费量为947万吨高于去年同期的86万吨6月份以来顺丁橡胶的月消费量维持在10万吨以上好于去年同期10月5日当周投研经理全钢胎开工率为499半钢胎开工率为6931开工率环比下滑0755-23375252甲醇库存方面港口库存总量报11029万吨环比-427万吨企业库存环比93万吨报4341万吨企业lupxwkqhcn订单待发1841万吨环比减少1396万吨从业资格号PVC节中PVC开工持续回升目前年内高位社库及厂库大幅累库后续检修来看开工预计维持偏高海外偏弱带动FOB天津报价770美元吨与节前持平成本端电石开工维持高位电石供应增量带动电石价格回F3047321落边际成本下移交易咨询号塑料周度库存方面生产企业库存407万吨环比去库014万吨贸易商库存报468万吨环比去库005Z0015541万吨下游平均开工率4924环比上涨118期权分析及策略建议常俊萍1橡胶期权期权研究员橡胶节前一周高位盘整震荡后连续报收大阴线节后超跌反弹回暖上升V型反转突破一个月以来高点changjpwkqhcn形成短期偏强势的市场行情走势形态涨幅069报收于14660期权隐含波动率报收于2261142持仓量PCR偏低位置窄幅盘整报收于068从业资格号期权分析标的行情沪胶V型反转超跌回暖上升的市场行情格局期权角度持仓量PCR维持在较低水平F03117406波动上橡胶期权隐含波动率中位数偏上策略建议构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如RU2401期权SRU2401P1445010SRU2401P1475010和SRU2401C1475010SRU2401C15000102甲醇期权甲醇前期高位回落后连续报收大阴线形成倒V型走势而后维持一周以来的低位窄幅区间盘整涨幅061报收于2456期权隐含波动率报收于2177040持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于106期权分析标的行情甲醇表现为中期趋势向上短期弱势盘整震荡的市场行情走势形态期权角度持仓量PCR窄幅盘整较高位置水平波动上甲醇期权隐含波动率持续上升历史较高位置水平策略建议构建偏空头的卖出看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益根据市场行情变化动态的调整持仓delta使得持仓delta保持负数若市场行情急速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则逐渐平仓离场如MA2312期权SMA2312P242510SMA2312P245010和SMA212C275010SMA2312C2500103PTA期权PTA高位回落后延续两周以来的空头下跌趋势节后加速下跌破位下行形成短期弱势偏空头的市场行情走势形态跌幅132报收于5782期权隐含波动率报收于2013-048持仓量PCR窄幅波动报收于067期权分析标的行情PTA表现为短期弱势偏空头的走势形态期权角度持仓量PCR逐渐上升维持较高位置波动上PTA期权隐含波动率逐渐下降至历史中位数偏高水平策略建议构建偏空头的卖出看涨看跌期权组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益动态调节持仓delta使得持仓delta保持负数若市场行情快速大涨突破损益平衡点则逐渐平仓离场如TA2312期权STA2312P560010STA2312P570010和STA2312C570010STA2312C5800104塑料期权塑料冲高回落后连续大幅下跌跌破近一个月以来低点形成上方有压力的空头趋势走势形态涨幅012报收于8025期权隐含波动率报收于1389006持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于110期权分析标的行情塑料跌破震荡区间下限短期弱势偏空头的市场行情格局期权角度持仓量PCR偏中性位置波动上塑料期权隐含波动率历史中位数水平策略建议构建看跌期权熊市价差组合策略获取方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨至高行权价则平仓离场如L2401期权BL2401-P-820010BL2401-P-830010和SL2401-P-800010SL2401-P-7900105PVC期权PVC节前连续空头下跌大幅下挫节后延续大幅下跌趋势而后有所反弹回升仍未改变空头下跌趋势形成短期空头市场行情走势形态涨幅005报收于5942期权隐含波动率报收于2055072持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于044期权分析标的行情PVC沿着空头趋势方向加速下跌的市场行情走势期权角度持仓量PCR较低位置波动上PVC期权隐含波动率中位数水平策略建议构建看跌期权熊市价差组合策略获取方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨至高行权价则平仓离场如V2401期权BV2401-P-620010BV2401-P-630010和SV2401-P-580010SV2401-P-590010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿RURU2401146600010000069587685570MAMA231224560015000617061722PTATA2312578200-7800-13219365647LPGPG23115107003000059292729728LL24018025001000012327413123PPPP2401744400400005436716245PVCV2401594200300005944128037数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU240114750578006380014690345002412500742023-12-25MA23122450495046002454-1500-061-050222023-11-03TA231258001200098005822-8850-150-400222023-11-03PG23115100274042605085-11900-22908012023-10-13L24018000186001465080402100026250562023-12-07PP2401750014400181507463550007050562023-12-07V24016000154001840059703900066200562023-12-07数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2401234920572261142364442603027MA2312217221822177040000000000TA2312203219912013-048000000000PG2311273626582696-105250626532358L2401139313851389006172418941555PP2401142113691400-144239725752219V2401222417122055072237626142137数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU2401136302426018-0212931719997068006MA2312626743119-0422639128086106-017TA2312334536261080308420456525067-006PG2311153238522511195082419328038-019L24012743631330281479316249110001PP24013064031320672677121414080-006V2401938647069-0068905939135044-003数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图146650015000成交量万12014500收盘价100140001350080130006012500401200011500201100002023-07-252023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-212023-09-262023-10-092023-10-12图2甲醇主力合约走势图2700成交量万3752600收盘价244300250030024002252300220015021002000751900180002023-04-072023-06-262023-08-182023-04-032023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-212023-09-262023-10-092023-10-12图3PTA主力合约走势图6500400成交量万收盘价32060005790002405500160500080450002023-04-282023-07-252023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-212023-09-262023-10-092023-10-12标的价量关系图4LPG主力合约走势图600035成交量万收盘价305500508400255000204500151040005350002023-04-172023-07-282023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-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