2023年3月海外宏观月报
　　海外银行风波“此起彼伏”，银行系统风险与监管应对轮流主导市场情绪，美联储和欧央行暂时以加息+扩表应对；然而市场对欧美加息预期均大幅下行，通胀预期上行、国债利率回落。银行风波对欧美经济数据的扰动尚待观察。
　　银行系统风险与监管应对轮流主导市场情绪。3月9日SVB宣布甩卖资产并发行股票融资，触发股票下跌后遭遇挤兑，3月10日被美国存款保险机构（FDIC）接管。3月13日，FDIC为所有存款提供全额兑付，美联储在财政部的支持下设立银行期限资金计划（BTFP）为银行提供最多1年的流动性支持。3月15日瑞士信贷的最大投资者沙特国家银行表示不考虑对瑞信追加投资，隔夜瑞信股票一度下跌超25%；3月19日，在瑞士政府协调下，瑞银并购瑞信，但价值约160亿瑞郎（172亿美元）的瑞信额外一级资本债（AT1）价值被清零引发市场动荡。3月24日，德意志银行股价日间最大跌幅达14%，5年期信贷违约互换（CDS）冲破200个基点，引发全球避险情绪升温。
　　虽然欧美银行业出现风险，联储与欧央行均如期加息。3月16日，欧央行超OIS市场隐含预期加息50个基点，但未对未来的加息路径提供明确的指引，而是强调由于不确定性上升，货币政策更加依赖数据（data-dependent）进行决策。3月23日，联储如期加息25个基点、基准利率升至4.75%-5.0%区间，释放一定鸽派信号，决议声明软化了加息的前瞻指引，承认曾考虑过3月不加息，但点阵图指示未来还有一次加息，2023年不降息。
　　此外，美联储大幅扩表应对银行体系的动荡。3月8-23日的两周时间，美联储合计扩表3915亿美元，其中联储为银行提供短期流动性的贴现窗口贷款增加1057亿美元、用于救助SVB和signature bank的过桥银行借款增加1796亿美元、新设立的BTFP贷款增加537亿美元。此外，联储通过FIMARepo Facility对海外央行贷款600亿美元，可能是瑞士央行为应对瑞银瑞信合并从美联储获得美元流动性，显示海外银行危机仍在发酵、海外央行或有所协同。
　　海外银行风波暂未对经济数据产生明显扰动。3月美国Markit综合PMI在服务业推动下超彭博预期上行至53.3，为近10个月以来高点。虽然欧元区制造业PMI仅为47.1，为2022年以来新低，但服务业PMI反弹至55.6，创10个月以来的新高。
　　美欧加息预期下行，国债收益率普遍大幅回落。美国国债期货市场隐含的加息终点从银行危机前的5.69%回落至3月31日的4.96%；美元通胀掉期隐含的通胀预期上升10bp至9.88%。3月初，美国经济数据超彭博预期推升联储加息预期，美元指数一度向上突破105。随着美欧银行危机的演绎，美元指数震荡下行。截至3月30日，美元指数3月累计下跌2.7%至102.2，人民币、欧元、英镑、日元兑美元分别升值0.89%、3.11%、2.96%和2.67%。同期，美国10年期国债收益率下降37bp至3.55%，抹去2月升幅；德国、英国10年期国债收益率分别下行27bp、37bp至2.30%和3.47%。
　　国际大宗商品价格普跌，贵金属价格上行。布伦特、WTI原油价格分别下跌6.2%、1.5%至77.4、73.0美元/桶；天然气价格下行1.0%；工业金属价格普遍下跌，镍（-9.0%）、锌（-6.2%）、铁矿石（-5.9%）跌幅较大。市场避险情绪升温，黄金和银涨幅分别达到6.0%、4.7%。
　　风险提示：欧美银行危机继续蔓延，海外衰退压力超预期加大。
　　

研究报告全文：证券研究报告宏观美欧银行风波演绎加息预期下行华泰研究研究员易峘SACNoS0570520100005evayihtsccom2023年3月31日中国内地数据综述月报SFCNoAMH26385236586000联系人胡李鹏PhD2023年3月海外宏观月报SACNoS0570122120062hulipenghtsccom海外银行风波此起彼伏银行系统风险与监管应对轮流主导市场情绪美861063211166联储和欧央行暂时以加息扩表应对然而市场对欧美加息预期均大幅下行联系人齐博成通胀预期上行国债利率回落银行风波对欧美经济数据的扰动尚待观察SACNoS0570122080197qibochenghtsccom862128972228银行系统风险与监管应对轮流主导市场情绪3月9日SVB宣布甩卖资产联系人胡昊PhD并发行股票融资触发股票下跌后遭遇挤兑3月10日被美国存款保险机SACNoS0570122090198huhaohtsccom构FDIC接管3月13日FDIC为所有存款提供全额兑付美联储在862128972228财政部的支持下设立银行期限资金计划BTFP为银行提供最多1年的流动性支持3月15日瑞士信贷的最大投资者沙特国家银行表示不考虑对瑞信追加投资隔夜瑞信股票一度下跌超253月19日在瑞士政府协调下瑞银并购瑞信但价值约160亿瑞郎172亿美元的瑞信额外一级资本债AT1价值被清零引发市场动荡3月24日德意志银行股价日间最大跌幅达145年期信贷违约互换CDS冲破200个基点引发全球避险情绪升温虽然欧美银行业出现风险联储与欧央行均如期加息3月16日欧央行超OIS市场隐含预期加息50个基点但未对未来的加息路径提供明确的指引而是强调由于不确定性上升货币政策更加依赖数据data-dependent进行决策3月23日联储如期加息25个基点基准利率升至475-50区间释放一定鸽派信号决议声明软化了加息的前瞻指引承认曾考虑过3月不加息但点阵图指示未来还有一次加息2023年不降息此外美联储大幅扩表应对银行体系的动荡3月8-23日的两周时间美联储合计扩表3915亿美元其中联储为银行提供短期流动性的贴现窗口贷款增加1057亿美元用于救助SVB和signaturebank的过桥银行借款增加1796亿美元新设立的BTFP贷款增加537亿美元此外联储通过FIMARepoFacility对海外央行贷款600亿美元可能是瑞士央行为应对瑞银瑞信合并从美联储获得美元流动性显示海外银行危机仍在发酵海外央行或有所协同海外银行风波暂未对经济数据产生明显扰动3月美国Markit综合PMI在服务业推动下超彭博预期上行至533为近10个月以来高点虽然欧元区制造业PMI仅为471为2022年以来新低但服务业PMI反弹至556创10个月以来的新高美欧加息预期下行国债收益率普遍大幅回落美国国债期货市场隐含的加息终点从银行危机前的569回落至3月31日的496美元通胀掉期隐含的通胀预期上升10bp至9883月初美国经济数据超彭博预期推升联储加息预期美元指数一度向上突破105随着美欧银行危机的演绎美元指数震荡下行截至3月30日美元指数3月累计下跌27至1022人民币欧元英镑日元兑美元分别升值089311296和267同期美国10年期国债收益率下降37bp至355抹去2月升幅德国英国10年期国债收益率分别下行27bp37bp至230和347国际大宗商品价格普跌贵金属价格上行布伦特WTI原油价格分别下跌6215至774730美元桶天然气价格下行10工业金属价格普遍下跌镍-90锌-62铁矿石-59跌幅较大市场避险情绪升温黄金和银涨幅分别达到6047风险提示欧美银行危机继续蔓延海外衰退压力超预期加大免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读1宏观研究美联储快速扩表美欧国债收益率普遍下行图表1美联储缩表放缓图表23月美联储总资产环比上升3637亿美元亿美元美联储当月国债购买量亿美元12007858048479777259621022724826602589800639256400183405406872400102189241252343331396800653月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份月份23456789123456789123101112101112年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年20212021202120212021202120212021202220222022202220222022202220222022202320232023202120212022202220222021资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表3欧央行和日央行暂未扩表图表4美欧日M2同比增速持续回落欧央行ECB总资产亿欧元100000800美国M2同比日本M2同比日本央行总资产万亿日元右轴3090000ECB日央行资产分别环比上月变化700欧元区M2同比8000025-004-033600700002060000500155000040010400003003000030200520000271000100001700511-0313-0315-0317-0319-0321-0323-032015-012017-012019-012021-012023-01资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读2宏观研究图表53月各国10年期国债收益率普遍大幅度回落美国国债收益率10年美日英德中最新2023330355036347230286日本国债利率10年一周前2023323338034339225287英国国债收益率10年1个月前2023227392053384257291环比1周前变化bps1700230790500-04950德国国债收益率10年环比1个月前变化bps-3700-1700-3736-2700-5143245中国国债到期收益率10年右轴40352930252026151005230005102021-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-03资料来源Wind华泰研究图表63月除澳元以外各国货币兑美元普遍升值人民币兑美元日元兑美元欧元兑美元英镑兑美元澳元兑美元403130302719201614151412110912101006050202010300-02-04-10-06-12-12-20-15当月累计第一周第二周第三周第四周资料来源Wind华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读3宏观研究各国经济数据未出现明显恶化图表73月份制造业PMI美国法国上行制造业PMI23-0323-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-02全球500491487488494498503511522523523529537美国Markit493473469462477504520515522527570592588573欧元区471485488478471464484496498521546555565582德国444463473471462451478491493520548546569584法国477474505492483472477506495514546557547572意大利520504485484465483480485509519545558583日本477489489490507508515521527533535541527英国480493470453465462484473521528546558552580中国526501470480492501494490502496474495502印度553554578557553551562564539546547540549巴西492475442443508511519540541542518523496越南512474464474506525527512540547517517543南非489492504595550495519469493549483592587资料来源Wind华泰研究图表8美国经济意外指数上行日本经济意外指数下行图表9G10和新兴市场经济意外指数上行花旗美国经济意外指数花旗G10经济意外指数300正实际经济情况好于彭博预期200正实际经济情况好于彭博预期花旗日本经济意外指数花旗新兴市场经济意外指数花旗欧洲经济意外指数150200100100500美日欧最新一周变化0885-257最近一个月变化14235-1270100美日欧50G10新兴市场200最新一周变化86-44158100最新一周变化9242最近一个月变化227-273-09最近一个月变化73211300150负实际经济情况不及彭博预期负实际经济情况不及彭博预期40020020-1121-0321-0721-1122-0322-0722-1123-0320-1121-0321-0721-1122-0322-0722-1123-03资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表102月份主要经济体OECD综合领先指标变动不大图表11摩根大通全球PMI边际改善OECD综合领先指标点摩根大通全球制造业PMI点63102中国美国欧元区日本OECD综合领先指标右104101102581001009998539896489497929643909588389417-0218-0219-0220-0221-0222-0223-0210-0212-0214-0216-0218-0220-0222-02资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读4宏观研究美国居民收入回升劳工市场供应依然偏紧图表122023年1月美国居民收入同比增速再度回升图表132月美国失业率小幅上升至36美国居民收入分项同比拉动率美国失业率季调40雇员报酬分项拉动经营者收入分项拉动16日本失业率租金收入分项拉动财产性收入分项拉动14欧元区失业率季调30转移支付收入分项拉动个人总收入同比增速德国调和失业率12201081066636042922410095-0299-0203-0207-0211-0215-0219-0223-0222-1020-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0723-0120-01资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表142月新增非农就业达到31万仍明显超预期图表15职位空缺失业人数显示美国劳动力市场供需仍然紧张新增非农就业万人失业率右轴万人非农职位空缺数及与待求职人口之比有所回落但仍在相对81400高位250108241807非农职位空缺数万人12002001506职位空缺数失业待业总人口右1000轴519011203615045348004238904036353643936363590786001003637373615757356050414003637353523231503625292420030100002001200420072010201320162019202221-1021-1222-0222-0422-0622-0822-1022-1223-02资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表162月美国零售总额环比小幅下降部分是因为高基数图表17美国零售商制造商库存额上升批发商库存额小幅下降亿美元美国零售总额季调美国制造商库存季调亿美元美国零售商库存季调亿美元7000美国零售总额季调同比右轴60100009000美国批发商库存季调亿美元50800040600070003060002050005000539104000030004000102000100020030003095-0198-0101-0104-0107-0110-0113-0116-0119-0122-0121-0821-1122-0222-0522-0822-1123-02资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读5宏观研究图表18美国零售热力图2月零售环比-04同比54环比同比202302202301202212202302202301202212美国零售消费总额-0432-08547762核心零售不含机动车辆-0124-06688674家具和家用装饰店-2557-20015701电子和家用电器店0365-03-28-16-109建筑材料园林设备及物料店-010410061527食品和饮料商店05-04-05555364保健和个人护理0931-15805118加油站-06-10-52-195644服装及服装配饰店-0829-04438833运动商品业余爱好书及音乐-050402397943日用品商场0543051057452杂货店零售业-1856154810347无店铺零售业1618-048568140食品服务和酒吧饭店-225608153244145机动车辆和零部件店-1871-18-023810资料来源Wind华泰研究图表19英国零售销售同比增速小幅上行图表20日本商业销售额总计与批发同比增速持续下降零售回升MA3欧元区19国零售销售指数当月同比MA3日本商业销售额总计同比德国零售销售季调同比30日本商业销售额批发同比英国零售销售指数季调同比2515日本商业销售额零售同比201015501055010515102015252015-012017-012019-012021-012023-012015-022017-022019-022021-022023-02资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表21除英国外各国3月服务业PMI普遍上行主要经济体服务业PMI2023-032023-022023-012022-122022-112022-102022-092022-082022-072022-062022-052022-042022-03美国服务业PMI538506468447462478493437473527534556580欧元区服务业PMI556527508498485486488498512530561577556德国服务业PMI539509507492461465450477497524550576561英国服务业PMI528535487499488488500509526543534589626日本服务业PMI542540523511503532522495503540526507494资料来源Wind华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读6宏观研究美国新屋销售同比跌幅收窄图表22美国2023年2月份ISM制造业PMI较前值回升23-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-02美国ISM制造业PMI4770474048404900502050905280528053005610554057105860新订单4700425045104720492047105130480049205510535053806170产出4730480048605150523050605040535054905420536054505850就业4910506050804840500048705420499047304960509056305290供应商交付4520456045104720468052405510552057306570672065406610自有库存5010502052305090525055505310573056005590516055505360客户库存4690474048204870416041603890395035203270371034103180订单库存4510434041404000453050905300513053205870560060006500物价5130445039404300466051705250600078508220846087107560新出口订单4990494046204840465047804940526050705290527053205710进口499047804510466050805260525054405070487051405180554023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-02资料来源Wind华泰研究美国ISM制造业PMI4770474048404900502050905280528053005610554057105860新订单4700425045104720492047105130480049205510535053806170图表23工业生产指标美国回落中国大幅上行产出47304800图表4860241月欧元区工业生产指数上行5150523050605040535054905420536054505850就业4910506050804840500048705420499047304960509056305290各国生产指标对比供应商交付45204560451047204680欧元区195240国工业生产指数5510同比552057306570672065406610中国美国德国自有库存50105020523050905250欧元区195550国制造业产能利用率53105730右轴56005590516055505360日本客户库存韩国4690474040482048704160416038903950352090327037103410318060订单库存45104340414040004530509053005130532058705600600065003050物价513044503940430046605170525060007850858220846087107560新出口订单49904940462048404650478049405260507052905270532057104020进口4990478045104660508052605250544050708048705140518055403023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-021020美国ISM制造业PMI47704740484049005020509075528052805300561055405710586010新订单04700425045104720492047105130480049205510535053806170产出4730480048605150523050605040535054905420536054505850070就业104910506050804840500048705420499047304960509056305290-10供应商交付452045604510472046805240551055205730657067206540661065-20自有库存205010502052305090525055505310573056005590516055505360客户库存4690474048204870416041603890395035203270371034103180-30订单库存3045104340414040004530509060530051305320587056006000650020-0220-0620-1021-0221-0621-1022-0222-0622-10物价23-0215-01513017-01445019-013940430021-01466023-0151705250600078508220846087107560新出口订单4990494046204840465047804940526050705290527053205710资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究进口主要经济体服务业PMI49904780451046602023-03508052602023-0252502023-0154402022-1250702022-1148702022-1051402022-0951802022-0855402022-072022-062022-052022-042022-0323-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-02欧元区服务业PMI5560527050804980485048604880498051205300561057705560美国ISM制造业PMI4770474048404900502050905280528053005610554057105860德国服务业PMI5390509050704920461046504500477049705240550057605610新订单4700425045104720492047105130480049205510535053806170图表25美国新屋销售同比跌幅收窄图表262月美国住房库存销售比回升至88英国服务业PMI产出47305280480048605350515048705230499050604880504048805350500054905090542052605360543054505340585058906260美国抵押贷款新申请指数同比MA6日本服务业PMI就业新建住房待售新建住房销售均491012个月移动平均5420506050805400484052305000511048705030542053204990522047304950496050305090540056305260529050704940万栋美国新屋销售同比MA3供应商交付452045604510472046805240551055205730657067206540661050美国新屋开工同比MA312自有库存全美房屋空置单元总计万栋右轴501050205230200050905250555053105730560055905160555053604011客户库存46904740482019004870416041603890395035203270371034103180订单库存451043404140400045305090530051305320587056006000650030101800物价513044503940884300466051705250600078508220846087107560209新出口订单49904940462017004840465047804940526050705290527053205710108进口4990478045101600466050805260525054405070487051405180554023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-02071500美国ISM制造业PMI47704740484049005020509052805280530056105540571058601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00453050905300513053205870560060006500物价5130445039404300466051705250600078508220846087107560新出口订单4990494046204840465047804940526050705290527053205710进口499047804510466050805260525054405070487051405180554023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-02美国ISM制造业PMI4770474048404900502050905280528053005610554057105860新订单4700425045104720492047105130480049205510535053806170产出4730480048605150523050605040535054905420536054505850就业4910506050804840500048705420499047304960509056305290供应商交付4520456045104720468052405510552057306570672065406610自有库存5010502052305090525055505310573056005590516055505360客户库存4690474048204870416041603890395035203270371034103180订单库存4510434041404000453050905300513053205870560060006500物价5130445039404300466051705250600078508220846087107560新出口订单4990494046204840465047804940526050705290527053205710进口499047804510466050805260525054405070487051405180554023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-0322-02美国ISM制造业PMI4770474048404900502050905280528053005610554057105860新订单4700425045104720492047105130480049205510535053806170产出4730480048605150523050605040535054905420536054505850就业4910506050804840500048705420499047304960509056305290供应商交付4520456045104720468052405510552057306570672065406610自有库存5010502052305090525055505310573056005590516055505360客户库存4690474048204870416041603890395035203270371034103180订单库存4510434041404000453050905300513053205870560060006500物价5130445039404300466051705250600078508220846087107560新出口订单4990494046204840465047804940526050705290527053205710进口499047804510466050805260525054405070487051405180554023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-0622-0522-0422-03美国ISM制造业PMI477047404840490050205090528052805300561055405710新订单470042504510472049204710513048004920551053505380产出473048004860515052305060504053505490542053605450就业491050605080484050004870542049904730496050905630供应商交付452045604510472046805240551055205730657067206540自有库存501050205230509052505550531057305600559051605550客户库存469047404820487041604160389039503520327037103410订单库存451043404140400045305090530051305320587056006000物价513044503940430046605170525060007850822084608710新出口订单499049404620484046504780494052605070529052705320进口49904780451046605080526052505440507048705140518023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0922-0822-0722-06美国ISM制造业PMI477047404840490050205090528052805300新订单470042504510472049204710513048004920产出473048004860515052305060504053505490就业491050605080484050004870542049904730供应商交付452045604510472046805240551055205730自有库存501050205230509052505550531057305600客户库存469047404820487041604160389039503520订单库存451043404140400045305090530051305320物价513044503940430046605170525060007850新出口订单499049404620484046504780494052605070进口49904780451046605080526052505440507023-0223-0122-1222-1122-1022-0美国ISM制造业PMI47704740484049005020509新订单47004250451047204920471产出47304800486051505230506就业49105060508048405000487供应商交付45204560451047204680524自有库存50105020523050905250555客户库存46904740482048704160416订单库存45104340414040004530509物价51304450394043004660517新出口订单49904940462048404650478进口4990478045104660508052623-0223-0122美国ISM制造业PMI4770474048新订单4700425045产出4730480048就业4910506050供应商交付4520456045自有库存5010502052客户库存4690474048订单库存4510434041物价5130445039新出口订单4990494046进口4990478045美国ISM制造业PMI新订单产出就业供应商交付自有库存客户库存订单库存物价新出口订单进口宏观研究图表271月美国汽车销量同比增速高位回落图表28美国汽车库存仍在低位MA3美国汽车销量总计季调同比万辆美国汽车库存季调万辆40美国新车销量个人消费者季调同比160汽车库存销售比右轴500301404504002012035010100300080250106020015020401003020504000200020052010201520202007-012011-012015-012019-012023-01资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表29美国粗钢产量波动上升明显低于疫情前图表30EIA商业原油库存量持续上升美国当周粗钢产量万吨20192020库存量EIA商业原油全美万桶20212022库存量商业原油俄克拉何马库欣万桶右轴200202319060000800018055000700017060001605000050001504500014040004000013030003500012020001103000010001002500001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月09-0311-0313-0315-0317-0319-0321-0323-03资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读8宏观研究3月全球出口或继续减速图表31韩国3月前20日出口金额同比跌幅加深图表32美国贸易逆差总体量扩大韩国出口金额前20日同比MA3同比60美国贸易差额季调亿美元右轴5040美国出口同比10008004030美国进口同比600203040020102000010-102000400-2010600-3020800-401000302009-012011-012013-012015-012017-012019-012021-012023-01402019-032020-032021-032022-032023-03资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表33欧元区逆差边际收窄图表34日本贸易逆差缩小日本当月贸易差额季调亿美元右轴欧元区19国贸易差额亿美元右轴日本出口季调当月同比50欧元区19国进口当月同比3005020000欧元区19国出口当月同比240百日本进口季调当月同比40百180401500030120306010000202005000601010120000180-10240500010-2030010000360-3020420-401500030480-50200002007-012011-012015-012019-012023-0111-0313-0315-0317-0319-0321-0323-03资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读9宏观研究美国2月CPI同比小幅回落但通胀粘性依然较强图表35各类大宗商品3月份表现回顾截至0329过去一个月涨跌幅-15-10-50510152025天然气-10WTI油价-15布伦特油-62黄金60银47铜-27铝-37铁矿石-59锌-62镍-90糖09大米-06棉花-20玉米-36大豆-56小麦-76原油运输指数BDTI217CRB综合指数-13南华综合指数-41资料来源Wind华泰研究图表36美国CPI同比下行PCE同比上行图表37美国核心CPI同比下行核心PCE同比上行美国核心CPI当月同比美国CPI当月同比欧元区核心当月同比欧元区HICP调和通胀同比HICP12美国核心PCE当月同比美国PCE当月同比80日本核心CPI当月同比10日本CPI同比6086404202000-220-44011-0213-0215-0217-0219-0221-0223-0211-0213-0215-0217-0219-0221-0223-02资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究资料来源WindBloomberg华泰研究图表38美国PPI继续回调图表39TIPS隐含通胀预期3月份回落美国PPI最终需求同比季调美国国债收益率10年日本PPI同比485美国国债收益率通胀指数国债TIPS10年44欧洲PPI同比美国10年期breakeven平准通胀率35540436323282312422012416121840041812211-0213-0215-0217-0219-0221-0223-0218-0318-0919-0319-0920-0320-0921-0321-0922-0322-0923-03资料来源Bloomberg华泰研究资料来源Bloomberg华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读10宏观研究图表404月海外重要经济数据和事件及相关彭博一致预期华泰宏观2023年4月海外宏观数据日历星期日星期一星期二星期三星期四星期五星期六262728293031123456783月美国非农预期新增非农就业238万人失业率36劳动参与率-91011121314153月美国CPI数据预期3月美国零售数据预期CPI环比-核心CPI环比-零售环比一致预期-CPI同比-核心CPI同比-1617181920212223242526272829一季度美国PCE预期日本央行政策利率PCE环比-预期利率-核心PCE环比-301备注Vertex42提供的日历模板httpswwwvertex42comcalendars资料来源Bloomberg华泰研究免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读11宏观研究免责声明分析师声明本人易峘兹证明本报告所表达的观点准确地反映了分析师对标的证券或发行人的个人意见彼以往现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的具体建议或所表迖的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬一般声明及披露本报告由华泰证券股份有限公司已具备中国证监会批准的证券投资咨询业务资格以下简称本公司制作本报告所载资料是仅供接收人的严格保密资料本报告仅供本公司及其客户和其关联机构使用本公司不因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户本报告基于本公司认为可靠的已公开的信息编制但本公司及其关联机构以下统称为华泰对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证本报告所载的意见评估及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断在不同时期华泰可能会发出与本报告所载意见评估及预测不一致的研究报告同时本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格价值及投资收入可能会波动以往表现并不能指引未来未来回报并不能得到保证并存在损失本金的可能华泰不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态华泰对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改本公司不是FINRA的注册会员其研究分析师亦没有注册为FINRA的研究分析师不具有FINRA分析师的注册资格华泰力求报告内容客观公正但本报告所载的观点结论和建议仅供参考不构成购买或出售所述证券的要约或招揽该等观点建议并未考虑到个别投资者的具体投资目的财务状况以及特定需求在任何时候均不构成对客户私人投资建议投资者应当充分考虑自身特定状况并完整理解和使用本报告内容不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果华泰及作者均不承担任何法律责任任何形式的分享证券投资收益或者分担证券投资损失的书面或口头承诺均为无效除非另行说明本报告中所引用的关于业绩的数据代表过往表现过往的业绩表现不应作为日后回报的预示华泰不承诺也不保证任何预示的回报会得以实现分析中所做的预测可能是基于相应的假设任何假设的变化可能会显著影响所预测的回报华泰及作者在自身所知情的范围内与本报告所指的证券或投资标的不存在法律禁止的利害关系在法律许可的情况下华泰可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易为该公司提供投资银行财务顾问或者金融产品等相关服务或向该公司招揽业务华泰的销售人员交易人员或其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准采用不同的分析方法而口头或书面发表与本报告意见及建议不一致的市场评论和或交易观点华泰没有将此意见及建议向报告所有接收者进行更新的义务华泰的资产管理部门自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本报告中的意见或建议不一致的投资决策投资者应当考虑到华泰及或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突投资者请勿将本报告视为投资或其他决定的唯一信赖依据有关该方面的具体披露请参照本报告尾部本报告并非意图发送发布给在当地法律或监管规则下不允许向其发送发布的机构或人员也并非意图发送发布给因可得到使用本报告的行为而使华泰违反或受制于当地法律或监管规则的机构或人员本报告版权仅为本公司所有未经本公司书面许可任何机构或个人不得以翻版复制发表引用或再次分发他人无论整份或部分等任何形式侵犯本公司版权如征得本公司同意进行引用刊发的需在允许的范围内使用并需在使用前获取独立的法律意见以确定该引用刊发符合当地适用法规的要求同时注明出处为华泰证券研究所且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节和修改本公司保留追究相关责任的权利所有本报告中使用的商标服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标服务标记及标记中国香港本报告由华泰证券股份有限公司制作在香港由华泰金融控股香港有限公司向符合证券及期货条例及其附属法律规定的机构投资者和专业投资者的客户进行分发华泰金融控股香港有限公司受香港证券及期货事务监察委员会监管是华泰国际金融控股有限公司的全资子公司后者为华泰证券股份有限公司的全资子公司在香港获得本报告的人员若有任何有关本报告的问题请与华泰金融控股香港有限公司联系免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读12宏观研究香港-重要监管披露华泰金融控股香港有限公司的雇员或其关联人士没有担任本报告中提及的公司或发行人的高级人员有关重要的披露信息请参华泰金融控股香港有限公司的网页httpswwwhtsccomhkstockdisclosure其他信息请参见下方美国-重要监管披露美国在美国本报告由华泰证券美国有限公司向符合美国监管规定的机构投资者进行发表与分发华泰证券美国有限公司是美国注册经纪商和美国金融业监管局FINRA的注册会员对于其在美国分发的研究报告华泰证券美国有限公司根据1934年证券交易法修订版第15a-6条规定以及美国证券交易委员会人员解释对本研究报告内容负责华泰证券美国有限公司联营公司的分析师不具有美国金融监管FINRA分析师的注册资格可能不属于华泰证券美国有限公司的关联人员因此可能不受FINRA关于分析师与标的公司沟通公开露面和所持交易证券的限制华泰证券美国有限公司是华泰国际金融控股有限公司的全资子公司后者为华泰证券股份有限公司的全资子公司任何直接从华泰证券美国有限公司收到此报告并希望就本报告所述任何证券进行交易的人士应通过华泰证券美国有限公司进行交易美国-重要监管披露分析师易峘本人及相关人士并不担任本报告所提及的标的证券或发行人的高级人员董事或顾问分析师及相关人士与本报告所提及的标的证券或发行人并无任何相关财务利益本披露中所提及的相关人士包括FINRA定义下分析师的家庭成员分析师根据华泰证券的整体收入和盈利能力获得薪酬包括源自公司投资银行业务的收入华泰证券股份有限公司其子公司和或其联营公司及或不时会以自身或代理形式向客户出售及购买华泰证券研究所覆盖公司的证券衍生工具包括股票及债券包括衍生品华泰证券研究所覆盖公司的证券衍生工具包括股票及债券包括衍生品华泰证券股份有限公司其子公司和或其联营公司及或其高级管理层董事和雇员可能会持有本报告中所提到的任何证券或任何相关投资头寸并可能不时进行增持或减持该证券或投资因此投资者应该意识到可能存在利益冲突评级说明投资评级基于分析师对报告发布日后6至12个月内行业或公司回报潜力含此期间的股息回报相对基准表现的预期A股市场基准为沪深300指数香港市场基准为恒生指数美国市场基准为标普500指数具体如下行业评级增持预计行业股票指数超越基准中性预计行业股票指数基本与基准持平减持预计行业股票指数明显弱于基准公司评级买入预计股价超越基准15以上增持预计股价超越基准515持有预计股价相对基准波动在-155之间卖出预计股价弱于基准15以上暂停评级已暂停评级目标价及预测以遵守适用法规及或公司政策无评级股票不在常规研究覆盖范围内投资者不应期待华泰提供该等证券及或公司相关的持续或补充信息免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读13宏观研究法律实体披露中国华泰证券股份有限公司具有中国证监会核准的证券投资咨询业务资格经营许可证编号为91320000704041011J香港华泰金融控股香港有限公司具有香港证监会核准的就证券提供意见业务资格经营许可证编号为AOK809美国华泰证券美国有限公司为美国金融业监管局FINRA成员具有在美国开展经纪交易商业务的资格经营业务许可编号为CRD298809SEC8-70231华泰证券股份有限公司南京北京南京市建邺区江东中路228号华泰证券广场1号楼邮政编码210019北京市西城区太平桥大街丰盛胡同28号太平洋保险大厦A座18层邮政编码100032电话862583389999传真862583387521电话861063211166传真861063211275电子邮件ht-rdhtsccom电子邮件ht-rdhtsccom深圳上海深圳市福田区益田路5999号基金大厦10楼邮政编码518017上海市浦东新区东方路18号保利广场E栋23楼邮政编码200120电话8675582493932传真8675582492062电话862128972098传真862128972068电子邮件ht-rdhtsccom电子邮件ht-rdhtsccom华泰金融控股香港有限公司香港中环皇后大道中99号中环中心58楼5808-12室电话852-3658-6000传真852-2169-0770电子邮件researchhtsccomhttpwwwhtsccomhk华泰证券美国有限公司美国纽约公园大道280号21楼东纽约10017电话212-763-8160传真917-725-9702电子邮件Huataihtsc-uscomhttpwwwhtsc-uscom版权所有2023年华泰证券股份有限公司免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分请务必一起阅读14