行业分化加剧，自主品牌加速市场份额提升。自主转型提速，合资品牌加速出清。根据中汽协数据，2022年自主品牌累计份额已达49.9%。“自主崛起+出口高增”将会是今年常态。自主品牌进一步抢占市场份额。汽车板块机会仍在整车，个别零部件企业也将受益。
　　市场观望情绪依旧凝重，自主品牌进一步发力。乘联会预测3月狭义乘用车零售销量为159万辆，同比持平，环比增长14.5%；新能源汽车零售销量为56万辆，同比增长25.8%，环比增长27.5%，渗透率为35.2%，环比增速进一步加快。国六B排放切换时点愈发临近，部分整车厂和经销商均承受更大经营压力。近期部分车企相继推出保价政策，有望缓解消费者观望情绪，改善汽车销量。销售兑现能力较强的自主品牌的进一步发力仍被看好。
　　静待乘用车需求改善，2023年第二季度乘用车销量预期将得到修正。燃油车补贴风波将会逐步褪去，4月上海车展预计迎来新车型/新技术密集发布，叠加地方补贴+优惠政策+碳酸锂降价共同作用，销量于2023年第二季度有望持续得到改善。市场静待乘用车需求改善，我们对2023年第二季度乘用车销量不悲观。
　　抢占燃油车市场份额仍在延续，机会仍在整车。整车板块，我们推荐吉利汽车（00175 HK）、长城汽车-H（02333 HK）和理想汽车-W（02015 HK）；零部件板块，我们推荐耐世特（01316 HK）。
　　风险提示：1）行业竞争加剧，价格战超预期；2）乘用车销量不及预期。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportAutomobilesSectorIvanWu吴凱翔行业报告汽车行业85225092649ivanwugtjascomhk29March2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateWaitingforPVDemandtoImprove行Self-OwnedBrandsWillAdvanceFurther双周报静待乘用车需求改善自主品牌进一步发力业报Industrydifferentiationintensifiesandself-ownedbrandsacceleratingmarketshareSelf-ownedbrandtransformationhasacceleratedandjointRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformventurebrandsarebeingsqueezedoutofthemarketatanacceleratedpaceMaintained告SectorReportAccordingtodatafromCAAMthecumulativeshareofself-ownedbrandsreached499in2022Self-ownedbrandrisehighexportgrowthwillbe评级跑赢大市维持thenormforthisyearSelf-ownedbrandsfurtherseizedmarketshare2OpportunitiesintheautosectorstilllieinOEMsandsomecomponentsHK-listedOEMsandHSIperformancecompanieswillalsobenefit港股上市整车企业和恒生指数表现Thewait-and-seesentimentinthemarketremainsstrongand10self-ownedbrandsareadvancingfurtherCPCApredictsthatpassenger0vehiclePVretailsalesinMarchwillbe159mnunitsfromanarrow-10perspectivelevelledoutyoyandup145momNEVretailsaleswillbe-20560000unitsup258yoyand275momwithapenetrationrateof-30证352furtheracceleratedmomAsthetimeforswitchingtoNationalVIB-40emissionstandardisapproachingsomeOEMsandcardealersareunder-50告券increasedoperatingpressureRecentlysomeOEMssuccessivelylaunched-60研报priceprotectionschemeswhichareexpectedtoeaseconsumers-70wait-and-seesentimentandimprovesalesWearestilloptimisticthat究究self-ownedbrandswithstrongsalescapabilitieswilladvancefurtherResearchReport报研WaitingforPVdemandtoimprovePVsalesforecastin2Q2023tobeHengSengIndexHK-listedMainAutoOEMs告券revisedThefuelvehiclesubsidycrisiswillgraduallyfadeawayTheEquityShanghaiAutoShowinAprilisexpectedtointensivelyrevealnewvehicleSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational证modelsnewtechnologiesWiththecombinationoflocalsubsidiesdiscountschemesandlithiumcarbonatepricecutssalesareexpectedtocontinuetoHKmainOEMsandHSIperformanceimprovein2Q2023ThemarketiswaitingforPVdemandtoimproveweare港股主要整车企业和恒生指数表现optimisticaboutsalesofPVin2Q202380SeizingFVmarketshareiscontinuingandopportunitiesstillliein6040TOEMsFortheOEMsectorwerecommendGeelyAuto00175HKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HKforthecomponents20asectorwerecommendNexteer01316HK0b-20Risks1Industrycompetitionintensifiespricewarexceedsexpectations2-40汽lPVsalesmayfallshortofexpectations-60车e-80行业分化加剧自主品牌加速市场份额提升自主转型提速合资品牌加速出清根据中行-100汽协数据2022年自主品牌累计份额已达499自主崛起出口高增将会是今年常20223242022524202272420229242022112420231242023324业态自主品牌进一步抢占市场份额汽车板块机会仍在整车个别零部件企业也将受益HSI0017500489011140195802238L023330121109866098680201509863市场观望情绪依旧凝重自主品牌进一步发力乘联会预测3月狭义乘用车零售销量为eAutomobilesSector159万辆同比持平环比增长145新能源汽车零售销量为56万辆同比增长258SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalf环比增长275渗透率为352环比增速进一步加快国六B排放切换时点愈发临近部分整车厂和经销商均承受更大经营压力近期部分车企相继推出保价政策有望缓解消t费者观望情绪改善汽车销量销售兑现能力较强的自主品牌的进一步发力仍被看好M静待乘用车需求改善2023年第二季度乘用车销量预期将得到修正燃油车补贴风波将a会逐步褪去4月上海车展预计迎来新车型新技术密集发布叠加地方补贴优惠政策碳酸锂降价共同作用销量于2023年第二季度有望持续得到改善市场静待乘用车需求r改善我们对2023年第二季度乘用车销量不悲观g抢占燃油车市场份额仍在延续机会仍在整车整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HKi长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HKn风险提示1行业竞争加剧价格战超预期2乘用车销量不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6waitingforPVforimprovewaitingdemandtoanimprovementsalespromotingtherebyfacilitieschargingplateslicenselimitedwithvehicleassuchschemesdiscountlaunchedintensivelyawayfadeWmarketpenetrationincreasedthatselfoptimisticstilloperapricelaunchedprotectionschemeswhichareexpectedtoeasegreaterconsumersunderaredealerscarandOEMssomeapproachingtotheimpactwithapenetrationrateof352furtheracceleratedmomoutyoylevelledandCarThewaiwillbenefitcompaniesalsoSelfSelfManufacturesAutomobileofAssociationChinabrandsventurejointandacceleratedhasselfandintensifiesIndustrydifferentiationSeSourceSourceFigureSourcebethenormalinnewwill20231FigureaitingforPVdemandtoimprovetodemandPVforaitinge-thAssociationwebrandowned-webadiehgexporthighrisebrandownede100200300400500600700800lasCPCACPCA0RetailRetailNEVsinSalesofChinaExportVolumeofNEVst3-tand000Units000pagrevealnewnewmodelstechnologiesvehiclePeeexpeWeSalesfromGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai-enetrationrateofenergynewseeforCPCAdisclaimersfurtherseizedmarketsharesharemarketseizedfurthersfuelvehiclesentimenteoeynhgeprgotoNEVsofgrowthexporthighandrecoveryup145momctthatinAprilAprilinthatct-ownedbrandswithstrongsalescawithstrongownedbrandspredictspredictsthat101520253035404505IiepcetcniutruhuteerormtNVtoNEVspromotetoyearthethroughoutcontinuetoexpectedistinthemarketremainsstrongJan-21FVPenetrationRatePenetrationNEVsWholesaleofFeb-21pricepricecutsWholesaleSalesofWholesaleChinaNEVsinSalesPVnewvehicleenergypassengervehicledMar-21PVweareoptimisticbusiApr-21saleswillgraduallyturnthecornertheturngraduallywillsalessalessalesMay-21arenessPVsconsumptioncouponsvehiclepurchasesubsidiesandincreasedquotasforcitiesforquotasincreasedandsubsidiespurchasevehiclecouponsconsumptionAsthetimeforswitchingtoNationalVIBemissionstandard-Jun-21fromdatatoAccordingpaceacceleratedanatmarkettheofoutsqueezedbeingownedbrandsacceleratetheirmarketsharemarkettheiracceleratebrandsownedforecastJul-21PCAAMwholesalerwhwillg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