我们维持中广核矿业（“公司”）“买入”的投资评级，目标价1.36港元。我们的目标价相当于7.7倍2023年市盈率和6.6倍2024年市盈率。我们预计由于强劲的基本面铀价在2023年将继续上涨，且公司的矿产品产量将稳定增长。
　　我们预计由于需求增加和有限的供应增长，铀价在长期将被提升至更高价位。核电产业政策调整在长期将会带来更多的核电，我们认为全球对铀的需求在未来5-10年将录得更快的增速。但是全球铀供应仍然受到过去十年由于铀价过低导致的投资不足的影响。因此，我们预计长期来看铀价将被提升至一个更高价位水平。我们预计铀价将被提升至50美元/磅的价位之上，这将显著改善中广核矿业的盈利能力。
　　公司权益铀矿产量预计在2023-2025年将保持稳定增长。中广核矿业通过其合营公司谢公司及联营公司奥公司经营铀矿业务。铀矿产量的增长主要归因于产能利用率的提高和Ortalyk矿产能的增长。谢公司总产能1,200 tU，奥公司的中矿总产能2,000 tU。此外，奥公司的扎矿正在建设中，预计将在2025年投产，产能750 tU。谢矿及中矿的产能利用率均低于80%，预计将随着铀价上涨而逐步提升。由于矿产铀产量的增长，中广核矿业将极大地受益于高铀价。公司2022年净利润的增长主要归功于铀矿业务贡献的利润。铀矿产量和铀价都符合我们的估计。我们预计公司的铀矿开采业务在2023年将继续增长。
　　催化剂：铀价上涨；核电发展计划。
　　风险因素：核电站安全问题；铀价下跌；哈萨克斯坦矿业投资政策的变化。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleKevinGuo郭勇究FlashNoteCGNMining01164HK8675523976671EquityResearch快讯中广核矿业01164HKyongguogtjascomhk28March2023TableSummaryUraniumPriceLiftedtoaHigherLevel铀价被提升至更高价位WemaintaintheinvestmentratingforCGNMiningtheCompanyasBuywithTPofHK136OurTP快represents77x2023PERand66x2024PERWeexpecturaniumpricetocontinuetorisein2023duetostrong讯fundamentalsandminingoutputoftheCompanytogrowsteadilyFlashNoteWeexpecturaniumpricetobeliftedtoahigherlevelinthelongtermduetomoredemandandlimitedsupplygrowthThepolicyadjustmentregardingthenuclearpowerindustrywillbringmorenuclear-derivedelectricityinthelongtermandweexpectglobaldemandforuraniumtorecordfastergrowthspeedinthenext5-10yearsHoweverglobaluraniumsupplyisstillsufferingfromtheimpactfromunderinvestmentduetolowuraniumpriceinthelastdecadeAsaresultweexpecturaniumpricetobeliftedtoahigherlevelinthelongtermWeexpecturaniumpricetobeliftedtothelevelofhigherthanUS50lbwhichwillsignificantlyimprovetheprofitabilityofCGNMiningTotalequityshareofuraniumminingoutputoftheCompanyisexpectedtogrowsteadilyin2023-2025CGNMiningoperatesitsuraniumminingbusinessthroughitsjointventurewithSemizbay-Uanditsassociate证OrtalykGrowthinuraniumminingoutputisattributabletohigherproductioncapacityutilizationrateand券expandedproductioncapacityofOrtalykSemizbayMinehasatotalproductioncapacityof1200tUandtheMynkudukMinefromOrtalykhasaproductioncapacityof2000tUBesidestheZhalpakMinefromOrtalykis研underconstructionandisexpectedtocommenceproductionin2025withaproductioncapacityof750tUBoth告究theutilizationrateofSemizbay-UandMynkudukMinearelowerthan80andisexpectedtobeliftedwithrising报报uraniumpriceCGNMiningwillbenefitgreatlyfromhighuraniumpriceduetoitsgrowingmineduraniumoutput告究ThenetprofitgrowthoftheCompanyin2022wasmainlyattributabletoprofitcontributedbyitsuraniumminingbusinessUraniumminingoutputanduraniumpricewereinlinewithourestimationsWeexpecturaniumminingEquityResearchReport研businessoftheCompanytocontinuetogrowin2023Tab券leICatalystsRiseinuraniumpricenuclear-derivedelectricitydevelopmentplans证有nfo1RisksNuclearpowerplantsafetyissuesfallinuraniumpricechangeinmininginvestmentpoliciesin色Kazakhstan金属我们维持中广核矿业公司买入的投资评级目标价136港元我们的目标价相当于77倍2023年市盈率和66倍2024行年市盈率我们预计由于强劲的基本面铀价在2023年将继续上涨且公司的矿产品产量将稳定增长业我们预计由于需求增加和有限的供应增长铀价在长期将被提升至更高价位核电产业政策调整在长期将会带来更多的核电我们认为全球对铀的需求在未来年将录得更快的增速但是全球铀供应仍然受到过去十年由于铀价过低导致的投资不足的影NonferrousSectorMetals5-10响因此我们预计长期来看铀价将被提升至一个更高价位水平我们预计铀价将被提升至50美元磅的价位之上这将显著改善中广核矿业的盈利能力公司权益铀矿产量预计在2023-2025年将保持稳定增长中广核矿业通过其合营公司谢公司及联营公司奥公司经营铀矿业务铀Tab矿产量的增长主要归因于产能利用率的提高和Ortalyk矿产能的增长谢公司总产能1200tU奥公司的中矿总产能2000tU此外奥公司的扎矿正在建设中预计将在年投产产能谢矿及中矿的产能利用率均低于预计将随着铀价leI2025750tU80上涨而逐步提升由于矿产铀产量的增长中广核矿业将极大地受益于高铀价公司2022年净利润的增长主要归功于铀矿业务nfo2贡献的利润铀矿产量和铀价都符合我们的估计我们预计公司的铀矿开采业务在2023年将继续增长中中催化剂铀价上涨核电发展计划外广运核风险因素核电站安全问题铀价下跌哈萨克斯坦矿业投资政策的变化矿输业CGNMiningHKCGN01164SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2TablePageHeaderCGNMining01164HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableMarch2023Neutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to58orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral2Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport01164HK4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearch中广核矿业ReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERCGNMiningThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of2