我们维持中国宏桥（“公司”）“买入”的投资评级，目标价14.10港元。我们的目标价相当于6.5倍2023年市盈率和6.1倍2024年市盈率。我们预计随着煤价的企稳，2023年原铝的生产成本将会下降。
　　我们认为中国宏桥将更受益于铝价的上涨，因为公司是全球最大的原铝生产商且拥有充足的氧化铝供应。中国宏桥的净利润对铝价的变动十分敏感。公司拥有全球最大的原铝产能，每年生产近600万吨原铝。中国宏桥的铝土矿、氧化铝和电力的自给率高，因此公司对成本的控制能力高于同业，特别是生产原铝的材料成本。因此，我们相信如果供应冲击发生，中国宏桥将更加受益于铝价的上涨。在2023年，我们认为短期的铝供应冲击风险仍然存在。
　　我们认为煤价企稳将改善公司2023年的盈利前景。虽然煤价仍将维持在高位，但我们预计煤价将逐步企稳。我们预计公司的盈利前景在2023年将改善。2022年公司的净利润下滑主要是由于燃料成本上涨导致更高的生产成本。公司的生产保持稳定，产量符合其生产计划。2022年原铝产量同比增长7.2%至604万吨，这符合公司的生产计划和我们的估计。2022年原铝销量同比增长8.3%至547万吨，氧化铝的销量同比增长15.8%至830万吨。我们预计燃料成本在2023年企稳，公司的盈利能力将会改善。
　　催化剂：铝价上涨；煤炭价格企稳。
　　风险因素：铝价下跌；电力供应问题导致的限产。

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteChinaHongqiao01378HKKevinGuo郭勇EquityResearch8675523976671快讯中国宏桥01378HKyongguogtjascomhk28March2023TableSummaryProductionCostPressurestoAbate生产成本压力将下降快WemaintaintheinvestmentratingofChinaHongqiaotheCompanyasBuywithTPofHK1410讯OurTPrepresents65x2023PERand61x2024PERWeexpectproductioncostsofprimaryaluminumtodeclinein2023ascoalpricestabilizesFlashNoteWebelievethatChinaHongqiaowillbenefitmorefromtheriseinaluminumpriceasitisthelargestprimaryaluminumproducerintheworldandhassufficientsupplyofaluminaChinaHongqiaosnetprofitishighlysensitivetofluctuationsinaluminumpriceTheCompanyhasthelargestprimaryaluminumproductioncapacityintheworldandproducesabout6milliontonsofprimaryaluminumeachyearChinaHongqiaohashighself-efficiencyratioofbauxitealuminaandelectricitysotheCompanyhashighercostcontrolabilitythanitspeersespeciallyformaterialcostsforproducingprimaryaluminumHencewebelieveChinaHongqiaowillbenefitmorefromtheriseinaluminumpriceifsupplyshocktakesplaceIn2023webelievetheriskofshort-termsupplyshockofaluminumremains证WeexpectprofitabilityprospectsoftheCompanytoimprovein2023ascoalpricestabilizesAlthoughcoalpricemaystayhighweexpectittostabilizegraduallyWeexpectprofitabilityoftheCompanytoimprovein券2023ThedecreaseinnetprofitoftheCompanyin2022wasmainlyduetohigherproductioncostswhichwere研attributabletorisingfuelcostsTheproductionoftheCompanywasstableandoutputwasinlinewithits告究productionplanTheoutputofprimaryaluminumin2022increased72yoyto604milliontonswhichwasin报报linewithitsplanandourestimationTotalsalesofprimaryaluminumin2022increased83yoyto547milliontonsandtotalsalesofaluminaincreased158yoyto830milliontonsWeexpectfuelcoststostabilizein2023告究andprofitabilityoftheCompanytoimproveEquityResearchReport研TabCatalystsRiseinaluminumpricestabilizingcoalprice券leI证RisksDeclineinaluminumpricelimitedproductionduetoelectricitysupplyproblem有nfo1我们维持中国宏桥公司买入的投资评级目标价1410港元我们的目标价相当于65倍2023年市盈率和61倍2024色金年市盈率我们预计随着煤价的企稳2023年原铝的生产成本将会下降属我们认为中国宏桥将更受益于铝价的上涨因为公司是全球最大的原铝生产商且拥有充足的氧化铝供应中国宏桥的净利润对铝行价的变动十分敏感公司拥有全球最大的原铝产能每年生产近600万吨原铝中国宏桥的铝土矿氧化铝和电力的自给率高业因此公司对成本的控制能力高于同业特别是生产原铝的材料成本因此我们相信如果供应冲击发生中国宏桥将更加受益于铝价的上涨在2023年我们认为短期的铝供应冲击风险仍然存在NonferrousSectorMetals我们认为煤价企稳将改善公司2023年的盈利前景虽然煤价仍将维持在高位但我们预计煤价将逐步企稳我们预计公司的盈利前景在2023年将改善2022年公司的净利润下滑主要是由于燃料成本上涨导致更高的生产成本公司的生产保持稳定产量符合其生产计划2022年原铝产量同比增长72至604万吨这符合公司的生产计划和我们的估计2022年原铝销量同比增Tab长83至547万吨氧化铝的销量同比增长158至830万吨我们预计燃料成本在2023年企稳公司的盈利能力将会改善leI催化剂铝价上涨煤炭价格企稳nfo2风险因素铝价下跌电力供应问题导致的限产中中外国运宏输桥ChinaHKHongqiao01378SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2TablePageHeaderChinaHongqiao01378HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableMarch2023Neutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to58orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral2Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport01378HK4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport中国宏桥6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaHongqiaoThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of2