我们维持招金矿业（“公司”）“收集”的投资评级，目标价7.97港元。我们的目标价相当于17.6倍2023年市盈率和13.9倍2024年市盈率。我们预计矿产金产量在2023年继续增长，这将进一步降低矿产金的生产成本并提高公司的盈利能力。我们预计金价在2023年继续上升，这将提高公司的盈利能力。
　　招金矿业的净利润拥有巨大的增长潜力，矿金产量增长和更高的金价是主要推动力。招金矿业在2022年生产19.2吨矿产金，这比公司此前的计划高31.5%且仅小幅低于公司约20吨左右的设计产能。公司在山东省金矿的生产在2022年已经基本恢复正常。我们预计公司矿金产量在2023年将稳定增长。海域金矿是公司最大的在建金矿，设计产能为15-20吨矿产金，并预计将在2025年开始投产。招金矿业的矿产金生产成本与其生产规模密切相关，我们预计随着矿产金产量的增长，公司的生产成本将持续下降。
　　矿产金生产成本的下降将是2023年盈利增长的主要驱动力。招金矿业在2022年生产了19.2吨矿产金，这接近了其设计产能。但是公司2022年的矿金生产成本依旧较高。招金矿业的矿产金生产成本与其生产规模密切相关，我们预计生产成本的下降在2023年会加快。我们预计招金矿业2023年的矿金产量大于20吨，矿金的平均生产成本将从2022年的较高水平下降。
　　催化剂：金价上涨。
　　风险因素：金价下跌；金矿的生产受到外部因素的影响。

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteZhaojinMining01818HKKevinGuo郭勇EquityResearch8675523976671快讯招金矿业01818HKyongguogtjascomhk28March2023TableSummaryGoldPriceContinuestoRise金价继续上涨快WemaintaintheinvestmentratingforZhaojinMiningtheCompanyasAccumulatewithTPof讯HK797OurTPrepresents176x2023PERand139x2024PERWeexpectoutputofminedgoldtocontinuetogrowin2023whichwillfurtherreduceproductioncostsofminedgoldandimproveprofitabilityoftheFlashNoteCompanyWeexpectgoldpricetocontinuetorisein2023whichwillliftprofitabilityoftheCompanyNetprofitofZhaojinMininghasgreatgrowthpotentialandwillbedrivenbyminedgoldoutputgrowthandhighergoldpriceZhaojinMiningproduced192tonsofminedgoldin2022whichis315higherthanitspreviousplanandonlyslightlylowerthanitsdesignedproductioncapacityofaround20tonsTheproductionofgoldminesoftheCompanyinShandongProvincehadgenerallyresumednormalin2022WeexpectminedgoldoutputoftheCompanytogrowsteadilyin2023HaiyuGoldMineisthelargestgoldmineoftheCompanywhichisunderconstructionithasadesignedproductioncapacityof15-20tonsofminedgoldandisexpectedtocommenceproductionfrom2025MinedgoldproductioncostsofZhaojinMiningwerecloselyrelatedtoitsproductionscaleandweexpectproductioncostsoftheCompanytocontinuetodeclineasminedgoldoutput证grows券Descendingminedgoldproductioncostswillbethemaindriverofprofitgrowthin2023ZhaojinMining研produced192tonsofminedgoldin2022whichapproacheditsdesignedproductioncapacityHowever告究productioncostsofminedgoldoftheCompanyin2022remainedhighMinedgoldproductioncostsofZhaojin报报Miningwerecloselyrelatedtoitsproductionscaleweexpectdescendingproductioncoststoacceleratein2023WeexpecttotalminedgoldoutputofZhaojinMiningtobegreaterthan20tonsin2023andtheaverage告究productioncostsofminedgoldtodecreasefromthehighlevelsin2022EquityResearchReport研TabCatalystRiseingoldprice券leI证RisksDeclineingoldpricegoldmineproductionimpactfromexternalfactors有nfo1我们维持招金矿业公司收集的投资评级目标价797港元我们的目标价相当于176倍2023年市盈率和139倍2024色金年市盈率我们预计矿产金产量在2023年继续增长这将进一步降低矿产金的生产成本并提高公司的盈利能力我们预计金价属在2023年继续上升这将提高公司的盈利能力行招金矿业的净利润拥有巨大的增长潜力矿金产量增长和更高的金价是主要推动力招金矿业在2022年生产192吨矿产金这业比公司此前的计划高315且仅小幅低于公司约20吨左右的设计产能公司在山东省金矿的生产在2022年已经基本恢复正常我们预计公司矿金产量在2023年将稳定增长海域金矿是公司最大的在建金矿设计产能为15-20吨矿产金并预计将在2025NonferrousSectorMetals年开始投产招金矿业的矿产金生产成本与其生产规模密切相关我们预计随着矿产金产量的增长公司的生产成本将持续下降矿产金生产成本的下降将是2023年盈利增长的主要驱动力招金矿业在2022年生产了192吨矿产金这接近了其设计产能但是公司2022年的矿金生产成本依旧较高招金矿业的矿产金生产成本与其生产规模密切相关我们预计生产成本的下降在2023Tab年会加快我们预计招金矿业2023年的矿金产量大于20吨矿金的平均生产成本将从2022年的较高水平下降leI催化剂金价上涨nfo2风险因素金价下跌金矿的生产受到外部因素的影响中招外金运矿输业ZhaojinMining01818HKZhaojinMining01818SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2TablePageHeaderZhaojinMining01818HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableMarch2023Neutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral28Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport01818HK4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearch招金矿业ReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesMiningDISCLAIMERZhaojinThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of2