研究报告全文：股票研陈思超CompanyTableTitleReportChinaResourcesBeer00291HKAndyChen究85225092665EquityResearch公司报告华润啤酒00291HKandychengtjascomhk27March20232022TableSResultsummaryinLineExpectingPremiumizationTrendtoSeeAccelerationin2023MaintainBuy2022年业绩符合预期2023年高端化进程有望加速维持买入公RaiseTPtoHK7250andmaintaininvestmentratingasBuyWeforecastRatingTableRankBuy司ChinaResourcesBeersCRBortheCompany2023-2025corenetprofittoMaintainedreachRMB5444mnRMB6353mnRMB7265mnrespectivelyAsthebeer报segmenthasbeenfromheadwindtotailwindduetosequentialreboundin评级买入维持告consumerspendingpowerandon-premisechannelsalesweexpectCRBsearningstorecordvisibleYoYgrowthOurnewTPofHK7250isbasedonCompanyReportTablePrice380x2023FPER6-18mTP目标价HK7250Revisedfrom原目标价HK62602022resultsinlineCRBsrevenuerose56YoYtoRMB35263mnin2022YoYgrowthofsalesvolumeASPwas0452DuetohigherpricesofrawSharePrice股价HK62950andpackagingmaterialsCRBsgrossmarginfell07pptYoYto385despiteYoYgrowthof126insalesvolumeofsub-premiumsegmentandaboveSDexpensesratioimproved11pptYoYto191TogetherwithlowerincometaxStockPerformanceexpensescoreshareholdersprofitwasup26YoYtoRMB4520mninline股价表现withourexpectationTableQuotePicSolidprofitmarginimprovementin2023Accordingtothemanagementsales证volumecontributionfromsub-premiumsegmentandaboveisexpectedtogrow券告approximately4pptYoYto23in2023OverallweexpectCRBtodeliverlow研报single-digitgrowthinvolumeandmidsingle-digitgrowthinASPInthelongrunCRBsroadtopremiumizationwillmoveforwardandnotretreatWeexpect究究SnowDraftBeerHeinekenseriesandSuperXtoreach100mnklinannual报salesvolumeby2025atdouble-digit3-yearCAGRfrom2022to2025Other研driversbehindprofitmarginimprovementinclude1pricehikeswillcomeinto告券fulleffectinthePL2mitigatingcostpressureand3optimizingproductionEquityResearchReportcapacityandoperationalefficiencyielowerSGAexpensesratiosandmore证Tabcontrollablenon-recurringlossesWeforecasttheCompanysgrossmarginandnormalizedEBITmargintobothimprove24pptYoYin2023leIChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1YCreatingasecondgrowthcurvebyfurtherdevelopingthebaijiusegment股价变动个月个月年nfo1131AccordingtothemanagementsguidanceCRBisexpectedtogeneraterevenue食Abs81142347fromthebaijiusegmentatoverRMB10bnyearin3-4yearsdrivenbyamatrix绝对变动品ofmajorbrandsincludingGoldenSeedseriesJingzhiseriesandJinshaseriesReltoHSIndex100144432相对恒指变动饮Themanagementaimstoreshapeitsbaijiubusinessunitsinorganizational料structurepositioningandbrandbuildingproductdesignandSDchannelAvgSharePriceHK610595525平均股价港元行modelWeexpecttheCompanytoachieveadditionalafter-taxnetprofitofoverSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational业RMB100mnaftertheconsolidationofJinshaWineryin2023WebelievethatthesynergiestobeunleashedinthelongrunbetweenCRBsbeerandnon-beerFoodBeverageSectorsegmentareunderestimatedMajorriskfactorsunexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsorpackagingcomponentsunfavorableweatherconditionsTablePrTabYearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结ofit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率leI1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBnfo22021A333874587141411923637531680566112012022A352634344133953416833567053609169中2023F3813954441678253330940959067112189华外2024F405026353195816728310640520783141952025F42853726522391442471204046089616197润运啤输TableBaseDataSharesinIssuem总股数m32442MajorShareholder大股东ChinaResources517酒MarketCapHKm市值HKm2042209FreeFloat自由流通比率4393-MonthAverageVol3个月平均成交股数00071001FY23NetGearingFY23净负债股东资金NetCash52WeeksHighLowHK52周高低HK6440035900FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元788SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6ChinaResourcesBeer00291HKChina00291ResourcesBeerTablePageHeaderChinaResourcesBeer00291HKTable-1CRBsannualresultsreviewIncomeStatement1raMthgiRelbaTRMBmnFY2022FY2021YoYRevenue352633338756COGS-21702-20313GrossProfit135611307437OtherIncome17363279SDExpenses-6750-674327March2023AdministrativeExpenses-3320-3619EBIT52275991-128InterestIncome380243FinanceCosts-79-19PBT55286215-111IncomeTax-1178-1625PAT43504590-52NCI-6-3ShareholdersProfit43444587-53NormalizedEBIT560552752raMthgiRe63lbaTCoreEBIT54624652174EPSRMB13391414-53DPSRMB05360566-54GrossProfitMargin385392-07pptEBITMargin148179-31pptNormalizedEBITMargin15915801pptNetProfitMargin123137-14ppt00291HKOverallSalesVolumemnKL1110110604ASPRMB000KL3178302052华润啤酒SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-1ExpectingCRBsbeersalesvaluetogrowatFigure-2Expectingvolumecontributionofc32from3-yearCAGRof67from2022Ato2025Fsub-premiumcategoriesandaboveby2025FRMBmnRevenueLHSYoYChangeRHSmnKLOverallProductionCapcVolOverallSalesVolumeSPBSASalesVolOverallCapcUtilization4500010SPBSASalesVolChinaResourcesBeer248084000021706186035000415503000021240025000930-262020000-431015000-6-014A15A16A17A18A19A20A21A22F23F24F25F17A18A19A20A21A22F23F24F25FSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteGuotaiSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of6TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesBeer00291HKFigure-3ExpectingCRBsprofitmarginstocontinuetoFigure-4Dualempowermentstrategiesforbeerandbaijiustrengthenduring2023-2025Fsegmentsbesidessynergisticmodelofvarious1raMthgiRelbaTbaijiusubsidiariesunderCRWineHoldings4394244540938439236838540351353022027March2023252021832015815913812215106157170101371433140123567018A19A20A21AF22F23F24F25FGrossMarginNormalizedEBITNetMarginSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteGuotaiSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanInternational2raMthgiRelbaTTable-2PeerscomparisonPEREVEBITDAPBRROEDYGMMarketCapCompanyTickerLastPrice21A22AF23F24F21A22AF23F24F23F23F23F23FHKmnHKListedBreweryCompaniesBudweiserBrewingAPAC01876HKHKD240504304443513041572031631423510213526318504TsingtaoBreweryCoLtd-H00168HKHKD807002882532432141692201861563415221359142477ChinaResourcesBeer00291HKHKD629503704033332732142151901576018412422204221SimpleAverage3633673092631802131801524314615436WeightedAverage381391322275177210176150431381445800291HKMainlandChinaListedBreweryCompaniesTsingtaoBreweryCoLtd-A600600CHCNY1108104764053613051692201721455315214387142477ChongqingBreweryCo-A600132CHCNY1148104764273472922161511271071855552051563364ShanghaiBairunInvest-A002568CHCNY38400604824550432471535369284861620663545986华润啤酒BeijingYanjingBreweryCo-A000729CHCNY131801627106371651918527721717527380440742363GZZhujiangBrewery-A002461CHCNY9080324333276247191nanana20721844822918NingboLehuiInternational-A603076CHCNY40020889656301154472nanana32106na2565508FJYanjing-HuiquanBrew-A600573CHCNY11820953nanana415nanananananana3370LanzhouHuangheEnterprise000929CHCNY10080980nanananananananananana2135SimpleAverage7916184253253032962211786718112441WeightedAverage6475554253422322632001637821113452ChinaResourcesBeerHKListedNon-AlcoholicBeverageCompaniesNongfuSpringCoLtd-H09633HKHKD4550059056447239939734529725314433813587511714ChinaMengniuDairyCo02319HKHKD338502202041761502171501401192514818368133791TingyiCaymanIslnHldgCo00322HKHKD14180174255186156921038477432416630479892VitasoyInternationalHldg00345HKHKD15100na133657435147924318414145790248416171Uni-PresidentChinaHldg00220HKHKD8170195248181162751018778231236031335289WantWantChinaHldg00151HKHKD5060119137123116103817166302476245560132ChinaFoodsLtd00506HKHKD297012011099894453513412129383538308SimpleAverage2364082592032011541301104618737409WeightedAverage4354443603033032582221909927724501GlobalListedBreweryCompaniesAnheuser-BuschInbevSNvABIBBEUR579502942051931691161079787168415540988724DiageoPlcDGELNGBP360400031725721419724319716215310148222609781944HeinekenNvHEIANAEUR98360170211187165113108105942714419462478713CarlsbergAs-BCARLBDCDKK1046000220na1921761281101131044221626443175285ReportAsahiGroupHldgLtd2502JPJPY4810000159161144127112999989128224368146120KirinHldgCoLtd2503JPJPY206400028815314312015311695861611634456113034BostonBeerCompanyInc-ASAMUSUSD325390273459641730371621618214635870042131368CompanyMolsonCoorsBeverageCoTAPUSUSD50700110na12411873191817408683236587358ConstellationBrandsInc-ASTZUSUSD217950211na2031861641881541414319015513315741SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of6TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesBeer00291HKSimpleAverage5002642021732021481211083316321464WeightedAverage28118119517415914212111143212195201raMthgiRelbaTMainlandChinaListedBaijiuCompaniesKweichowMoutaiCoLtd-A600519CHCNY176779042335630326034023119416384289179252532396WuliangyeYibinCoLtd-A000858CHCNY1904103162752392082491821541305623921764842839LuzhouLaojiaoCoLtd-A000568CHCNY2421904463512852353372502031678130719872406540JiangsuYangheBrewery-A002304CHCNY1622503242572141812291811511274421527764278829ShanxiXHCFenWine-A600809CHCNY2714906214243272605263072341821133651378237773127March2023JiangsuKingSLuckBrew-A603369CHCNY61270379308250204232219174139572321376787652SichuanSwellfunCoLtd-A600779CHCNY75300307293246210331213181149853552485041935AnhuiKouziDistilleryCo-A603589CHCNY67140233235202174162156133111391942575245938AnhuiGujingDistilleryCo-A000596CHCNY2720206114783753093242802171676717910773143355JiuguiLiquorCoLtd-A000799CHCNY127250463355280219548241188145762841380047151ShedeSpiritsCoLtd-A600702CHCNY189490501372299232410219nana772630678971999AnhuiYingjiaDistilleryC-A603198CHCNY65500379299242200277212174146612542070459755JinhuiLiquorCoLtd-A603919CHCNY27030422491325248377308219168391221264115636HebeiHengshuiLaobaigan-A600559CHCNY35500826463441321385nanana671530769337032SimpleAverage4463542882333382311851506824616777WeightedAverage4223432882433312281881567727718856SourceBloomberg2raMthgiRelbaTNoteAllmarketdataareupdatedasat27March2023Figure-5BandofPERFigure-6BandofPBR00291HK华润啤酒SourceBloombergSourceBloombergChinaResourcesBeerReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of6TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesBeer00291HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue3338735263381394050242853Fixedassets1371714050133461260512059Costofsales2031321702225442334824049Right-of-useassets33793156303529182806Goodwill92509385907489738862Grossprofit1307413561155951715418804Others8810984410001101931058127March2023SDexpenses67436750686572097628Totalnon-currentassets3515636435354563468934307Administrativeexpenses36193320340435713793Others32791736112312731448Cashcashequivalents537610208131401829123539Stocks64587402791582688599EBIT59915227644976478832Tradereceivables34362612393943314623Netfinanceincome224301456547657Others627656553614609Totalcurrentassets1589720878255483150437370Profitbeforetax62155528690581949488Incometax16251178145818362218Totalassets5105357313610046619371677Profitaftertax45904350544763587270Short-termdebts0512000Non-controllinginterest36445Tradepayables21007230022424025368262332raMthgiRelbaTShareholdersprofitloss45874344544463537265Others163153153153153Totalcurrentliabilities2117023667243932552126386NormalizedEBITDA691671678472962710804NormalizedEBIT52755605698181979426Long-termdebts0588000Deferredtaxliabilities19551850203521772330BasicEPSRMB14141339167819582239Others3439413140093929385053946569604461076180Totalnon-currentliabilitiesTableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalliabilities2656430236304373162832566Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022F2023F2024F2025F00291HKSharecapital1409014090140901409014090PBT62155528690581949488Reserves1034212949164352042924971DDA15761409142114191407Totalshareholdersequity2443227039305253451939061华润啤酒Impairmentlossonfixedassets300286283280277Minorityinterest5738424650Others17271665415743857Workingcapitalchanges961875603384242Totalequity2448927077305673456539111Incometaxpaid12731201104416332121Cashfromoperatingactivities49956232654779018437TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosDisposaloffixedassets22610923794416262021A2022A2023F2024F2025FChinaResourcesBeerPurchaseoffixedassets1471605516417418Others1505346455546656Beersalesvaluegrowth6256826258Cashfrominvestingactivities27501351439311389Grossprofitgrowth833715010096EBITgrowth946-128234186155Netchangeinborrowings0179312197877Shareholdersprofitgrowth1191-53253167144Dividendspaid12811849195823592724Others856000Grossmargin392385409424439Cashfromfinancingactivities136649317724382801EBITDAmargin229193208224238EBITmargin179148169189206Netchangesincash8794832293251525247Netmargin137123143157170Cashatbeginningofyear45385376102081314018291ROE201169189195197EffectofFXratechanges410000ROA90768996101Cashatendofyear537610208131401829123539Currentratiox0809101214SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalQuickratiox0406070911NetgearingNCNCNCNCNCPayoutratio400400400400400ReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of6TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesBeer00291HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to527March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthis00291HKResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearch华润啤酒Report6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaResourcesBeerThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of6