>> 招银国际-Smoore Int’l (6969 HK) Operational challenges remain; but China regulatory risk to sentiment likely settled-230321
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研究报告全文：21Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSmooreIntl6969HKOperationalchallengesremainbutChinaBUYMaintainregulatoryrisktosentimentlikelysettledTargetPriceHK120PreviousTPHK252LukewarmtakeawayfromanalystbriefinginourviewwhenneartermUpDownside153outlookiscloudedby1lingeringuncertaintyinPMTAapprovalafterFDACurrentPriceHK104deniestwomentholrefillsbyVuseSolocitingthelackofsufficientevidenceChinaConsumertodemonstratethatpermittingthemarketingoftheproductswouldbeFoodandBeverageappropriatefortheprotectionofthepublichealthand2theprevalenceofunlawfulfruit-flavoredrefillsinbothUSandChinamarketJosephWong85239000838AslowstartforChinain2023whenJanandFebretailsaleswerejosephwongcmbicomhkcannibalizedbyunlawfulrefillsunderthenewregulatoryregimeaccordingtoourchannelcheckWhileregulatorshavebeenactivelycombatinganyStockDataillegaldistributionswearehopefulofseeingcompliantrefillsietobacco-MktCapHKmn62489flavoredtorecoverfrom2QonwardsHoweverweremaincautiousinAvg3mthstoHKmn1889ChinarevenueandexpectasmallYoYdecline52wHighLowHK260743TotalIssuedSharesmn6079BusinessdiversificationishappeningbuttheroadmaptobearfruitSourceWindremainsabsentConsideringtheRMB13bnRDspendingfor202274ShareholdingStructurewasspentondisposablevapes12onmedicalbeautyandtheremainingSMRAlonltd331onindustrialvaporizationDespitethefast-growthseenintheformerEVEBatteryInvestmentltd316concernsoverregulatorysupervisionisgraduallysurfacingOntheotherAndyXiongHoldingltd453SourceWindhandwewerenotofferedanyconcretetimelineonrevenuegenerationfortheremaininginitiativesSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeEarningschangeWecutour202324Erevenueby2031toreflecta1-mth3089weakerUSChinaoutlookdespiteourhigherrevenueestimatesfor3-mth-159-167disposablevapesRMB34bnvspreviouslyRMB30bnWealsotrimour6-mth-84-125SourceWindGPMby10pppatofactor-inthedilutionimpactuponthemixchangeBothleadtoa4554cutinournetprofitsestimatesoverthesameperiod12-mthPricePerformancerespectivelyOurestimatesareingeneral20lowerthanconsensusHKD3006969HKHSCEIrebased250ValuationInattempttofactor-inthecurrentperplexedlocalsentimentthat200reflectstherevisedbusinessoutlookafterthenewregimebecameeffective150wenowstartourvaluationaveragefromMarch2022vspreviouslysince10050SmooresIPOUponourearningschangesourrevisedTPisbasedon00215xfrompreviously355xroll-forwardedend-23EwhichstillrepresentsMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23-1sdbelowtheaveragevaluationCurrentvaluationissettlingaroundSourceWindhistoricaltroughandwethinkregulatoryrisktosentimentiswell-pricedMaintainBuyAuditorDeloitteEarningsSummaryRelatedReportsYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EOverseasorderandthenewdisposableRevenueRMBmn1001013755121451517217043vapetosustaingrowththroughoutYoYgrowth3153741172491232022E2Jun2022NetincomeRMBmn24005287251028773322EPSRMB0409040505YoYgrowth141025525146155ConsensusEPSRMBnana050708PExnana208181156PBxnana242220Yieldnana202327ROE251323145153161NetgearingnananananaSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionsNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue121451517217043152091894724672-201-199-309GrossProfit5260565964607258902711765-275-373-451EBIT298334153939432361478557-310-444-540Netprofit251028773322365952127265-314-448-543GrossMargin433373379477476477-44ppt-103ppt-98pptEBITMargin246225231284324347-39ppt-99ppt-116pptNetMargin207190195241275294-34ppt-85ppt-10pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue121451517217043126311489517951-3819-51GrossProfit526056596460574866257787-85-146-170OperatingProfit298334153939334639654810-108-139-181Netprofit251028773322297135794346-155-196-236GrossMargin433373379455445434-22ppt-72ppt-55pptOperatingMargin246225231265266268-19ppt-41ppt-37pptNetMargin207190195235240242-29ppt-51ppt-47pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimateFigure31-yearforwardPEchartFigure4TrailingPBchart1-yrtrailingPBLTaveragex1-yrfwdPELTaveragex-2SD-1SD80-1SD1SD601SD2SD2SD7050604050304020301020-10Jul22JulJul22JulJan23JanJan23JanMar22Mar23MarMar22Mar23MarSep22Sep22NovSep22SepNov22NovMay22MayMay22MaySourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue1001013755121451517217043Netincome24005287251028773322Vapingdevicecomponent916312594106791356015270DA3657174232332Advancedpersonalvapor8471162146616121773Changeinworkingcapital10041654102325156Disposablevape--190034003910Others160310132375811018Netcashfroperatingact3035358847037154516Grossprofits52967377526056596460Capexinvestments3391959146414641464DA3657174232332Associatedcompanies-----Sellingexpense144193388484544Others92232679602929Administrationexpenses683864114810011125Netcashfrinvestingact12615226242414351435RDexpenses4206711372759852Otheroperatingexpenses177641805232332Equityraised73903721---EBIT41916234298334153939ChangeofDebts-----EBITDA44226566358742575317Dividendpaid1437195093910761242Others110517521215--Financecostsnet1525292929Netcashfrfinancingact7058352227610761242Non-operating1058----Preincomeexpense-taxprofit31186209295433863910Netchangeincash88321885167812041838Cashatthebeginningoftheyear731955811427976310967Incometax718922444509588Exchangedifference61614--LessMinorityinterests-----Cashattheendoftheyear95581142797631096712805Netprofittoshareholder24005287251028773322Lesspledgedcash-----BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets23334886516157835868SalesmixPPEFixedassets11162108427549124999Vapingdevicescomponents915916879894896Intangibleassets8866796463Advancedpersonalvapor8584121106104Deferredtaxassets1216161616Othernon-currentassets11172696790790790PLratiosCurrentassets1244117986191992151123968Grossmargin529536433373379Cash95581142797631096712805Operatingmargin419453246225231Accountreceivable22182409230228753230Pre-taxmargin311451243223229Prepayments22633586110751208Netmargin240384207190195Othercurrentassets4393815627365946725Effectivetaxrate230149150150150Currentliabilities21083394358947235185BalancesheetanalysisBorrowings-----Currentratiox0806050505Accountpayables702827115015891768Netreceivabledays608688888856898Otherpayables11212272237430693352Netpayabledays443438524526579Taxpayables285295656565Inventoryturnoverdays382286371384423NetdebttoequitynananananaNon-currentliabilities266231393393393Borrowings-----ReturnsDeferredtaxliabilities213175300300300ROE251323145153161Othernon-currentliabilities5356939393Dividendyieldna20192125MinorityInterest-----PershareEPSRMB0409040505Totalnetassets1240019246203772217824258DPSRMB0303020202Shareholdersequity1240019246203772217824258BVPSRMB2231333639SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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