>> 招银国际-Fixed Income Daily Market Update -230321
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研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary21Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketssentimentrecoveredthismorningAT1sectorreboundedafterEUregulatorsclarifiedthattheywouldimposelossesonshareholdersbeforeGlennKoCFA高志和bondholdersHSBCAT1ralliedc5ptsTHKRAT1rose2-3ptsandChina85236576235AT1upc1ptAsianIGspaceoveralltightened5-10bpsbymid-daywithtwoglennkocmbicomhkwaybalancedflowsChinaMacroMonitorUnderwaytorecoverCMBImaintaintheforecastonChinasGDPgrowthat38for1Q23and54for2023SeebelowforCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩commentsfromoureconomicresearch85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkFOSUNIMediareportedFosunsolditsnewsouthern-regional-headquarterstowertoGuangzhouLGFVforRMB35-4bncUSD051-058bnFOSUNIsmoved-05to1ptthismorningJerryWang王世超85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点AftertheweekendannouncementofmergingwithUBSCSstatedthatFINMAhasdeterminedthatthebanksCHF16bnAT1capitalwillbewrittendowntozeroAsiaIGspacefollowedAT1spaceweaknessandwidened10-25bpsTMTbenchmarkpaperswidened15bpsBBBtechnamesLENOVOMEITUAcurveswidened30-40bpsInAMCspaceHRINTHsweretradedinaheavytonewidened20-40bpsafterprofitwarningandotherthreeAMCswidened10-30bpsThefrontendofBankT2andleasingpaperswidened10-30bpsunderheavysellingagainChinapropertyspaceperformedweakerDALWAN23-26sdropped25-35ptsSINOCEsUTLANsFTLNHDswerequoteddown15-25ptsCENCHIGRNLGR24-26slowered1-2ptsIndustrialnamesFOSUNIsHONGQIsdrifted05-15ptslowerMacaugamingnamesSANLTDsSTCITYsWYNMACsweremarkeddown15-25ptsAwayfromChinaIndianspacedriftedlowerVEDLNsweretraded25-6ptslowerRenewablessuchasGRNKENsRPVINsfell15-3ptsIndonesiannamesLPKRIJsMEDCIJswereindicateddown15-25ptsIntheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVspaceAT1hadabloodbathafterthesurprisingCSAT1write-offintheUBSacquisitiondealEuropeannamesplummeted10-15ptsThenewHSBC8PerpremainedthemostactiveoneinAsiahoursThepaperstartedoffwithHFre-establishingshortsbeforefundmanagersrushedintotrimexposureTheplungewasnotresistedbysporadicshortcoveringPBpuntinguntilfallingtoaround85ThenmoreHFssteppedintocovershortsafterLondonentryandPBclientssteppedintosupportTheHSBCAT1bouncedbackby2-4ptsfromlowtocloseat8789HKbetanamesperformedsoftlyBNKEAperpsslumped9-105ptsandCHOHINCINDBKperpsdropped35-6ptsTheplungealsospilledovertoAsiaAT1swithThaiKoreanamesdropped3-5ptsandChinesenameslowered2-3ptsinthemorningsessionThoughlaterChineseAT1sPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk121Mar2023bouncedbackaround1ptlateafternoononthebackofonshoreRMdemandOtherwiseweonlysawdipbuyinginc23issuesTheotherspaceswerelargelymutedastheentiremarketfocusedonAT1sOverallsentimentwasfragileandflowswereskewedtosmallbettersellingLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeHXCEME21411192590315BNKEA578PERP827-104LUSOIB53812282798512BNKEA5825PERP802-99CATIC21211172691211CINDBK48PERP900-63YUEXIU3801203178910VEDLN618080924630-59SHCONS21406162594410BBNIIJ43PERP787-59MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsreboundedyesterdaySP089Dow120andNasdaq039ralliedwhilefinancialsectorwasstillunderperformeddraggedbyCSandFRBThevolatilefinancialsectordecreasesprobabilitythatFedliftsinterestrateon22Mar23meetingtoc60ChinaPBOCmaintains1yrand5yrLPRrateunchangedat36543TheUStreasuryyieldsbouncedupyesterdaythe251030yieldsreached392356347365respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaMacroMonitorUnderwaytorecoverEconomyForecastChinaseconomycontinuedtorecoverinMarchwithconstructionfactoryactivityandfreightflowimprovingandtrafficpassengerflowmildlysofteningWemaintainourforecastonChinasGDPgrowthat38for1Q23and54for2023ChinasreflationpressureremainedlowastheCPIgrowthmaybearound1inMarch-AprilwhilethePPImayfurtherdecline2-25innextthreemonthsAmideasingcreditpolicythegrowthofrenminbiloansmaycontinuetoreboundFreightPassengerFlowRailwayfreightandportcontainerthroughputcontinuedtoimproveindicatingfurtherimprovementofindustrialoutputandshippingactivityThenumberofexpresspackagesalsopickedupHoweverinner-citypassengerflowandtrafficcongestionindexmildlydeclinedasrelatedserviceactivitymayhavesoftenedHousingMarketAutoSalesandConstructionActivityChinashousingsaleshadabetter-than-expectedrecoveryinMarchduetoaccommodativecreditpolicyconfidenceimprovementaftereconomicreopeningandareleaseofpotentialdemanddelayedbylockdownslastyearAutosalesdroppedasconsumerswaitedforbetterpricesintheproducerspricewarConstructionactivitycontinuedtoimproveasinfrastructureinvestmentmayhaveremainedstrongandpropertydevelopmentinvestmentmayhavefurtherimprovedChinaExportsandUSRecessionRiskChinasexportsofgoodsmayhaveremainedweakwithmildimprovementinMarchTherecentturmoilinglobalmarketspointedtohigherrecessionriskforoverseaseconomyaheadTherecessionwiththedisinflationindicatesChinaexportsmayremainweakinnexttwoquartersWeexpectChinaexportsofgoodstodrop35YoYin2023221Mar2023ChinasLiquidityConditionRMBExchangeRatesMoneymarketratesincreasedinthepastthreemonthsasliquiditydemandreboundedalongwithcreditexpansionandeconomicrecoveryTheRRRcutindicatesthePBOCseasingbiasforliquidityandcreditpolicytoboostthegrowthTreasurybondratesmildlydeclinedinMarchaftermoderateincreasesfromearlyNovemberRenminbidepreciatedagainstUSdollarinthefirsthalfofMarchastheUSdollarindexrosethankstobetter-than-expectedeconomicdataandtheriskaversionsentimentduringtherecentglobalfinancialmarketturmoilRenminbimaymoderatelyreboundagainstUSdollarin2H23aftertheUSeconomyseesarecessionWemaintainourforecastonUSRMBspotrateat660atend-2023ClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere89creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB129bnAsforMonth-to-date1496creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1335bnraisedrepresentinga186yoyincreaseADEINMediareportedthatAdaniGroupputsproposedUSD4bncoal-to-PVCplantatMundraonholdhopestoobtainfinancialclosureinnext6monthsEVERREMediareportedthatChinaEvergrandetoannouncedebtrestructureproposalwithoffshorecreditorson22Maritplanstoissuenew9unsecuredbondstoexchangeexistingbondsFOSUNIMediareportedFosunsolditsnewsouthern-regional-headquarterstowertoLGFVunitforRMB35-4bncUSD051-058bnJINKEJinkegotapprovalfrombondholdertoamortizetisRMB1bnbondsinsixinstallmentsKWGPROMediareportedthatKWGredeemedRMB1bndomesticprivatenotesdue20Mar23ontimeLMRTSPLMIRTrustannouncednottopayMarchdistributionforSGD140mnperpsMPELMoodysaffirmedMelcogroupunitsB1-Ba3CFRandunsecuredseniorratingsmaintainednegativeoutlookREGHRegalHotelsexpectstorecordnetlossofaroundHKD358mforFY22321Mar2023SJMHOLMoodysaffirmedSJMHoldingsBa3CFRandB1unsecuredseniorratingmaintainednegativeoutlookSUNKWPSunkwanPropertiesexpectstogetnetlossattributabletoownersoftheparentforRMB17-22bnCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap421Mar2023289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5
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