研究报告全文：MN21Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSunnyOptical2382HK2H22firsttakeweaknessin-lineawaitingrecoveryTargetPriceHK9251Sunnys2H22netprofitdeclineof54YoYisin-linewithexpectationswhilePreviousTPHK9251revenueexceedsourconsensusestimatesby259mainlyduetobetterUpDownside64ASPandproductmix2H22GPMcameinat190vs208in1H22duetoCurrentPriceHK8695lowerHCMHLSVLSGPMWeexpect1H23Eoutlookwillremainunderpressuregivenon-goinginventorycorrectionsmartphonedemandrecoveryChinaTechnologyuncertaintyandglobalEVsalesslowdownDespitebumpyrecoveryin2023weAlexNGarepositiveonVCMperiscopeARVRtodrivegrowthinlongertermTradingat85239000881242xFY23EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedAnalystbriefingwillbealexngcmbicomhkhostedat1030amtodayandwewilllookfor2023shipmentASPguidanceandbusinessoutlookonARVRautoCCMbusinessLilyYANGPhD85239163716lilyyangcmbicomhk2H22weaknessin-lineHCMHLSmarginunderpressure2H22revenueNPdeclined854YoYlargelyin-linewithexpectationsGPMHanqingLIdroppedto190in2H22from215in2H21draggedbyHLSGPMlihanqingcmbicomhkdeclineof44pptsandHCMGPMdropof27pptsDespiteweakshipmentStockDataHCMVLSASPcameinbetterthanexpectedbutweestimateHLSdroppedMktCapHKmn98730034YoY31HoHmainlyduetocompetitionandcamde-spectrendAvg3mthstoHKmn97052wHighLowHK144606755AbumpydemandrecoveryintheneartermWeexpectHCMHLSTotalIssuedSharesmn10970SourceFactSetshipmentweaknesstopersistinto1H23EonhighbaseandinventorycorrectionWesuggesttofocusonmanagements2023shipmentguidanceShareholdingStructureduringearningscallwhichmightgiveussomecolorondemandrecoveryinSunXuLtd355JPMorganChaseCo492H23EWenotedthatQ-TechannouncedconservativecapexplanonSourceHKExsmartphonecapacityexpansionwhichimpliesbumpydemandrecoveryin2023inourviewSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeKeyquestionsformgmtatinvestormeeting1HLSmarketshareand1-mth-76-113-mth-44-47upgradewithUSmajorcustomers2periscopecamoutlookinAndroid6-mth-77-113camp3SunnysviewVLSdemandgivenslowerglobalautosales4autoSourceFactSetmoduleorderwinsandcapacityexpansionand5ARVRoutlookgiven12-mthPricePerformancemajorcustomerweaknessMaintainHOLDwithTPofHK9251WhilewearepositiveonSunnysindustryleadershipproductroadmapandopportunitiesinautocameraVCMARVRwebelieveinventorydestockingandhighexposuretohandsetsegmentwillremaintheoverhangforthestockTradingat242xFY23EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedMaintainHOLDwithSOTP-basedTPofHK9251SourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERelatedReportsRevenueRMBmn38002374972981332213377811FY22EpreviewBumpyrecoveryYoYgrowth041320580173in202315Mar2023linkNetprofitRMBmn4950350611245423625544050YoYgrowth232225154772152Shipmentweaknesslikelytopersistinto1Q23EMaintainHOLDEPSReportedRMB44745722032639611Jan2023linkConsensusEPSRMB000457271376486PEx2553833582421993SoftHLSHCMinAugStillPBx7492383329awaitingturningpoint13Sep2022Yield0605050810linkROE335268112149160Netgearing46161221216302SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Mar2023FocusChartsFigure1SunnyOpticalrevenuetrendFigure2SunnyOpticalGPMtrendRMBmn464000050504404524154283500040453983954035134830000303501735Thousands26725000203024682302222242282520720000010-1201471411371241221331261311261500001511510510611296849310000-20-101055000-2000-302019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E200820092011201220142015201620172018201920202010201320212023EOthersAutoLens2022EHandsetLens3DsensingOpticalComponentsOptoelectronicProductsCameraModulesYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SunnyHCMshipmenttrendFigure4SunnyHLSshipmenttrendmnunitmnunit20192020202120222023201920202021202220237018016060140501204010030308060812040102000JulJulAprOctAprOctJanJunJanJunFebMarFebMarAugSepDecNovAugSepDecNovMayMaySourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5Sunnynext-genhandsetcameraproductsFigure6SunnyopportunitiesinvehiclecamerasSourceCounterpointCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Mar20232H22ResultsPreviewFigure72H22resultspreviewCMBIConsensusRMBmn1H212H211H222H22YoY2H22EDiff2H22EDiffRevenue19833176631697216225-81284126148379Grossprofit4946379035223083-1926421729285Operatingprofit3345250617981216-511319-81330-9Netprofit2688230513581050-54105301125-7EPSRMB246211124096-540960099-3Grossmargin249215208190-25ppt206-16ppt197-07pptOperatingmargin16914210675-67ppt103-28ppt90-15pptNetmargin1361318065-66ppt82-17ppt76-11pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8FY22revenuebreakdownRMBmn1H212H211H222H22EYoYFY21FY22YoYOpticalcompVLSHLS434444324399506914877694688Autolensshipmentmnunit3731384135687916ASPRMB3513363514363034439615HandsetlensShipmentmnunit7171722565165410-251439511926-17ASPRMB36313021-343326-23OptoelectronicHCM15308130261237110955-162833423326-18HCMshipmentmnunit361312289228-27674517-23ASPRMB39338338941183883993Opticalinstruments182206202202-23874034TotalRevenue19833176631697216225-83749729813-20GrossMarginOpticalcompVLSHLS429359355315-44ppt395334-61pptOptoelectronicHCM14812411697-27ppt137107-30pptOpticalinstruments442493446463-3ppt451420-31pptBlendedGPM249215208190-25ppt233199-34pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Mar2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithTPofHK9251WemaintainHOLDwithTPofHK9251Wederivedour12-monthTPfromSOTPvaluationmethodologyandourTPisbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof236xFY23EEPSinordertoreflect1Sunnysdiversificationinmultiplebusinesseswithdifferentgrowthprofilesand2visibilityofproductupcyclesacrossdifferentsegmentsWeassign15xPEtoitsCCMbusinesstoreflectitsChinaNo1positionproductupcycleandadvancedtechnologycapacityWeassign35xPEforitsvehiclelensbusinesstoreflectthehigh-marginandhigh-growthindustrynatureofvehiclelens25CAGRFY20-23EandSunnysNo1globalmarketshareWeapplya25xPEtoitshandsetlenssegmentgivensecularupgradetrendandcontinuedsharegainsfrompeersFigure9SunnyOpticalSOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY23EProfitFY23EEPSRMBTargetPECameramodules33711015xHandsetlenses45014725xVehiclelenses19306335xOthers2100725xTotalRMBImpliedPE326236xTPHK9251SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure10PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24ESunnyOptical2382HKHOLD1216087092562421993329149160Qtech1478HKBUY6274252258764090898120Cowell1415HKNR17301616NANA1691232622200218Truly732HKNR419104NANA------Catcher2474TTNR437318700NANA19018008084345Largan3008TTNR9743223000NANA1661521817114117Lite-on2301TTNR53996980NANA1141011919176194Primax4915TTNR9056020NANA94871615163168O-film002456CHNR2373501NANA-864444113208Average1512212220100127SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1112MforwardPEbandFigure1212MforwardPBbandSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue378493800237497298133221337781Costofgoodssold300982930428761236492519229366Grossprofit775186988736616470218415Sellingexpense279313274266235283Adminexpense650719758772709793RDexpense220924992642256023842758Others205698789558670691Operatingprofit480658775851311743645272ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV6019222NetInterestincomeexpense250224230240264291Pre-taxprofit455056535640287941014983Incometax531703579424476578Minorityinterest286868436478Netprofit401949505061245436264405Netdividends623799974470695844BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets224462563027989240353170131571Cashequivalents1917284256057285780711123Accountreceivables963082127448500384517328Inventories514657835482229359893665STbankdeposits212381112111211121112FinancialassetsatFVTPL566384808314831483148314Othercurrentassets697428282828Non-currentassets8247980910785119791294213627PPE65677513830395501049711144Othernon-currentassets168022952481242924452483Totalassets306933543838774360144464345198Currentliabilities1263013411118737129128289822Short-termborrowings111920711539153915391539Accountpayables113221073398695163108497816Othercurrentliabilities5622922315493221821942726021Non-currentliabilities533652016005600560056005Long-termborrowings00700700700700Othernon-currentliabilities533652015305530553055305Totalliabilities179671861217879131341883315827Sharecapital105105105105105105Otherreserves124481649220483224232529028773Totalshareholdersequity127261682620895228792581029371Minorityinterest173229307351415493Totalequityandliabilities306933543838774360144464345198PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE521Mar2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation455056435640287941014983Depreciationamortization122715701638175320532353Changeinworkingcapital14771152009281457413Others361168499170216298Netcashfromoperations466271606979539044817451InvestingCapitalexpenditure276022712498300030003000Others79637055400000Netcashfrominvesting355659762902300030003000FinancingDividendpaid623796974470695844Netborrowings38210170000Sharerepurchases1701510000Others2662912215240264291Netcashfromfinancing144122212417109591135NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear225419172842560572857807Exchangedifference2378358000Cashattheendoftheyear1917284256057285780711123SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE621Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7