研究报告全文：MN21Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSANYInternational631HKCorenetprofitin202253YoYinlinewithexpectationMarginrecoveryin4QTargetPriceHK1300SANYIscorenetprofitin2022grew53YoYtoRMB166bnwhichisinlinePreviousTPHK1300withourexpectationTheresultsimplythatnetprofitsurged11xYoYtoUpDownside740RMB369mnin4Q22SANYIproposedHK019dividendpershareimplyingCurrentPriceHK74732dividendpay-outWeseethisasolidsetofresultsWemaintainourpositiveviewonSANYIasweexpectthecoalminingcapexupcycletocontinueChinaCapitalGoodsin2023EcoalminingFAI20in2M23andexpectroboticandlithiumbatteryWayneFUNGCFAequipmenttoofferpotentialupsideMaintainBUYwithTPofHK1318x2023E85239000826PEonthebackof18earningsCAGRin2023E-25Ewaynefungcmbicomhk2022resultshighlightsRevenuegrew52YoYtoRMB102bnminingKatherineNGequipment59YoYtoRMB69bnlogisticsequipment40YoYto85237618725RMB33bnBlendedgrossmarginremainedstableat234Administrativekatherinengcmbicomhkexpenseratioreducedto76down27pptYoYasRDexpensegrewonly15YoYReportednetprofitgrew32YoYtoRMB166bnExcludingStockDatatheone-offgainsondisposalofasubsidiaryRMB172mnrecognizedinMktCapHKmn237008Avg3mthstoHKmn792021coreearningsgrowthwouldbe53YoYOperatingcashinflowgrew52wHighLowHK88864417YoYtoRMB11bnSANYImaintainedanetcashpositionofTotalIssuedSharesmn31728RMB118bnasatend-2022SourceFactSetMarginrecoveryin4Q22Netprofitin4Q22surged11xYoYtoShareholdingStructureRMB369mndrivenby48YoYincreaseinrevenuetoRMB39bn18pptSanyHeavyEquipment677YoY15pptQoQimprovementingrossmarginto237andgoodInvestmentsCompanyexpensecontrolFreefloat323SourceHKExPost-resultsconferencecallCMBIwillhostagroupcallat1430HKtimetodayWeexpectmanagementtoshareaboutthelatestbacklognewSharePerformanceproductdevelopmentandmargintrendPleasecontactyoursalesAbsoluteRelative1-mth-4126representativesfordetails3-mth-83-87Majorriskfactors1weaknessinminingactivities2slower-than-6-mth-104-139expectedprogressonnewproductdevelopment3reboundofrawmaterialSourceFactSetcosts12-mthPricePerformanceEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1019515537184032173925215YoYgrowth384524184181160AdjustednetprofitRMBmn1086716649199272325527128SourceFactSetEPSAdjustedRMB035053063074086ConsensusEPSRMBnana061074naRelatedreportsSANYI631HKBUYExpansiontoPEx1771281038876newenergyequipmentsectorwithanambitioustarget9Jan2023linkPBx2621181614Yield1725303541SANYI631HKBUYKeytakeawaysfrompost-resultscallandNDR2NovROE1521781851881912022linkNetgearing183118158203263SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Mar2023Figure1SANYIsquarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q211Q22ChgYoY2Q212Q22ChgYoY3Q213Q22ChgYoY4Q214Q22ChgYoYRevenue2411411671257335163725573969552653393648Costofsales1790324681198025713019633090572073300245Grossprofit62287040593946595948794858093461Grossmargin258211231269232222219237Pretaxprofit36850938578514-1129843245194465140Pretaxprofitmargin15312422514611710973118Netprofit33944431473462-227539142173369113Netmargin140108184131107986594Adjustednetprofit339444313224624327539142173369113Adjustednetmargin140108125131107986594SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2SANYIs2022resultsYEDec31RMBmn20212022ChangeYoY1H211H22ChangeYoY2H212H22ChangeYoYRevenueMiningequipment6896109805923227548069836695501499Logisticsequipment329946073971757215222515412455593Totalrevenue10195155375244984763253152107905517Costofsales7805119085263769581654340366092509Grossprofit239036285181215181549411751813544Otherincome391447142458250-45567197naOthergainsandlosses34754-8431938na32792-719SDexpenses567933647244401644323532648Administrativeexpenses1053117711847056319758361454Otherexpenses125na31-777324naEBIT15071994323975106390532931750Netfinanceincomecost69736129393474034-147Financeincome51591602633276242536Financeexpenses12013210355733136459-78ShareofprofitofJVandassociates00na00na00naPretaxprofit14381921336946102482492897823Incometax129252954117111-481214110819Aftertaxprofit13091669275829913101480756575MI504-917187-618323naNetprofit12591665322811906117448759695Adjustednetprofit10871665532DA24928815912615825312213062EBITDA17562283300110112221096541061621SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure3ChinarawcoalproductionannualFigure4ChinarawcoalproductionmonthlySourceWindCCTDCOALCMBIGMSourceWindCCTDCOALCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Mar2023Figure5ChinacoalminingFAIFigure6ChinacoalminingFAIgrowthYTDSourceWindNBSCMBIGMSourceWindNBSCMBIGMFigure7ChinacoalminersmonthlyprofitFigure8ChinaQinhuangdaoPort5500kcalpricemarginRMBmn16000035140000301200002510000020800001560000104000020000500MonthlyprofitRmbmnProfitmarginSourceWindNBSCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure9SANYIsPEbandFigure10SANYIsPBbandHKDHKD21x1616141417x29x12121013x1023x889x17x6611x45x405x2200Jul-12Jul-15Jul-22Jul-18Jul-12Jul-22Jul-15Jul-18Oct-15Oct-18Oct-21Oct-09Oct-12Apr-19Apr-22Apr-12Apr-15Jun-11Jan-13Jun-14Jun-17Jan-16Jan-19Jun-21Jan-22Mar-18Mar-21Mar-11Mar-14Feb-10Feb-20Feb-23Feb-17Oct-09Oct-12Oct-21Oct-15Oct-18Apr-12Apr-22Apr-15Apr-19Dec-11Nov-13Dec-14Nov-16Nov-19Nov-10Dec-17Dec-20Nov-22Aug-10Sep-20Sep-11Aug-13Sep-14Aug-16Sep-17Aug-19Jan-13Jun-17Jun-21Jan-22Jun-11Jun-14Jan-16Jan-19May-16May-10May-13May-20Mar-18Mar-21Mar-11Mar-14Feb-17Feb-10Feb-20Feb-23Nov-13Nov-16Dec-17Dec-20Nov-10Dec-11Dec-14Nov-19Nov-22Aug-13Aug-16Sep-17Sep-20Aug-10Sep-11Sep-14Aug-19May-13May-16May-10May-20SourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue73641019515537184032173925215Costofgoodssold5403780511908140481667619395Grossprofit196123903628435550635820Operatingexpenses113716202110279732833757Sellingexpense430567933110413041513Adminexpense70710531177169319782244Operatingprofit46373747690210651236Otherincome237391447589696807Otherexpense31125556576Othergainslosses25734754368435504ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV000000EBITDA153517562283281432353712Depreciation249249288355390414EBIT128615071994246028463298Interestincome365159556272Interestexpense132120132141138139NetInterestincomeexpense966973867667Pre-taxprofit119014381921237427703231Incometax139129252309360420Aftertaxprofit105213091669206524102811Minorityinterest6504728498Netprofit104512591665199323252713Adjustednetprofit104510871665199323252713Grossdividends408385524618721841BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets120161421717191183792281724848Cashequivalents94113492690333142875614Accountreceivables328842726416558384737831Inventories182125293283456947526088Prepayment359585700700700700STbankdeposits02150505050FinancialassetsatFVTPL402436802088208820882088Othercurrentassets158317821964205824672477Non-currentassets544865687763790980197955PPE259133144066423843754338Deferredincometax296287298298298298Goodwill113011301130113011301130Othernon-currentassets143218382269224322162189Totalassets174642078524953262883083632803Currentliabilities7938917010836106291338413261Short-termborrowings2645168795495410541054Accountpayables289344226646643990958972Taxpayable197185155155155155Othercurrentliabilities220528753080308030803080Non-currentliabilities166728324014401440144014Long-termborrowings49317672691269126912691Othernon-currentliabilities117410651323132313231323Totalliabilities96051200214849146421739817275Totalshareholdersequity7839870110040115081321615208Minorityinterest208264136220319Totalequityandliabilities174642078524953262873083532802PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation119014381921237427703231Depreciationamortization249249288355390414Taxpaid108185252309360420Changeinworkingcapital10551854754826828Others36663019867667Netcashfromoperations10709231084175120502465InvestingCapitalexpenditure33410531013500500350Others3137571652556272Netcashfrominvesting647296639445438278FinancingDividendpaid394408385524618721Netborrowings1321200141138139Proceedsfromshareissues3000000Others105301801000Netcashfromfinancing602227377665656860NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear11039411349269033314287Exchangedifference1786000Cashattheendoftheyear94113492690333142875614GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue302384524184181160Grossprofit175219518200163149Operatingprofit10592354894181160EBITDA140144300233150147EBIT173172323233157159Netprofit136205322197167167Adjnetprofit20840532197167167PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin266234234237233231Operatingmargin637231494949EBITDAmargin209172147153149147Adjnetprofitmargin142107107108107108ReturnonequityROE140152178185188191GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx020201020203Currentratiox151616171719Receivableturnoverdays146813531255119011801180Inventoryturnoverdays11011017891102010201020Payableturnoverdays159617101696170017001700VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE1131771281038876PB152621181614Divyield351725303541SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE521Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6