研究报告全文：20Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateXpengIncXPEVUSBUYMaintain4Q22earningsmisssalesmayriseQoQinFY23ETargetPriceUS1400PreviousTPUS1800UpDownside584BothXpengsrevenueandnetlossin4Q22missedourpriorforecastslargelyCurrentPriceUS884duetomoreintensifiedcompetitionthanexpectedOntheotherhandweexpectitssalesvolumetorisesequentiallyeveryquarterinFY23EbasedonourChinaAutoSectorchannelcheckswithitsbatterysupplierandtherolloutsoftheG6in2Q23ItappearstousthattheautomakerhasstartedtoprioritizecostoptimizationandSHIJiCFAcustomerneedsafterseniormanagementchangesThenewG6ispivotalto85237618728shijicmbicomhkXpengasinvestorswouldtakethisasasignalwhetherthecompanycouldturnaroundandsurviveintheshorttomediumtermDOUWenjingCFA852693947514Q22earningsmissXpengs4Q22revenuewas4lowerthanourpriordouwenjingcmbicomhkforecastduetohighersalespromotionGrossmarginwas25pptslowerthanwehadexpectedasvehiclegrossmarginnarrowedto57thelowestsinceGUSijie4Q20SGAexpenseswerealsoaboutRMB270mnhigherthanourpriorjasongucmbicomhkestimatesAccordinglyXpengs4Q22netlosswasaboutRMB24bnorRMB400mnwiderthanwehadexpectedXpengsnetcashwasreducedbyaboutStockDataRMB45bnin4Q22largerthanwehadprojectedMktCapUSmn7627Avg3mthstoUSmn169SalesvolumemayrisesequentiallyinFY23EBasedonourchannel52wHighLowUS3535618checkswithitsbatterysupplierXpengsproductionplanin2Q23shouldbeTotalIssuedSharesmn1726higherthan1Q23WiththenewG6goingonsalefromJunsalesvolumeatSourceBloombergXpengmaycontinuetorisesequentiallyWecutourFY23Esalesvolumeforecastby20000unitsto135000unitsWealsocutourFY23EaverageShareholdingStructureHeXiaopeng212sellingpriceforecastby10amidpricewarTaobaoChina112CostreductionandcustomerneedsarenowprioritizedManagementOthers676SourceBloombergprojectsalargeroomforcostreductionincludinga50cutinautonomousdrivingADanda25cutforpowertrainwithintwoyearsShouldthisbeSharePerformancerealizedweprojectitsgrossmargintobeabove20ThisisthemainreasonAbsoluteRelativewhywekeepourFY23EgrossmarginestimateslargelyunchangedWealso1-mth-72-12lowerourSGAforecastsamidnewmanagementWebelieveXpenghas3-mth-85-896-mth-445-481learntalessonthatitoverestimatedthecontributionofADtotheP7ssuccessSourceBloombergValuationKeyrisksWemaintainourBUYratingbutcuttargetpricefromUS1800toUS1400stillbasedon25xourrevisedFY23Erevenue12-mthPricePerformanceestimatesalowertargetvaluationthanLiAutoLIUSBUYandNIONIOUSXPEVUSMSCIChinarebased40USBUYgivenitslowerprojectedsalesvolumegrowthKeyriskstoour35ratingandtargetpriceincludeslowerADtechnologyadvancementanda30fastercatchupfromotherautomakerslowersalesvolumeandorgross25marginthanweexpectaswellasasectorde-rating2015EarningsSummary105YE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E02022-032022-062022-092022-12RevenueRMBmn584420988268553199547210YoYgrowth15182591280191476SourceBloombergNetincomeRMBmn48904863913980666472EPSRMB648296534470375AuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersYoYgrowthNANANANANAZhongTianPSx3722191611PBx0611162128YieldNANANANANARelatedReportsROE354127243277295XpengInc4Q22EnetlosstonarrowNetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashsalesaskeytoFY231Feb2023SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Mar2023Figure1QuarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22YoYQoQSalesvolumeunits1334017398256664175134561344222957022204-468-249ASPRMB22120921619022286020492921570421603523075723150613003Revenue29513761572085567455743668235140-399-247Grossprofit3304498211023911809923445-565-518RDexpenses535864126414511221126514991230-153-179SGAexpenses7211031153820151642166516261756-12980Operatingprofit9041443180324301920209121772517NANANetprofit7871195159512871701270123762361NANAGrossmargin11211914412012210913587-33ppt-49pptOperatingmargin-306-384-315-284-258-281-319-490-206ppt-171pptNetmargin-267-318-279-150-228-363-348-459-309ppt-111pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22FY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22FY23EFY24ERevenue268553199547210271004106051380NA-221-81Grossprofit308839877141324653477686NA-254-71Operatingprofit870692137389865183637224NANANANetprofit913980666472873373896462NANANAGrossmargin115125151120130150NA-06ppt02pptOperatingmargin-324-288-157-319-204-141NA-84ppt-16pptNetmargin-340-252-137-322-180-126NA-72ppt-11pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22FY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22FY23EFY24ERevenue268553199547210271734466365743-12-284-282Grossprofit3088398771413401622410737-92-359-335Operatingprofit870692137389849870904103NANANANetprofit913980666472827864533651NANANAGrossmargin115125151125139163NA-15ppt-12pptOperatingmargin-324-288-157-313-159-62NA-129ppt-94pptNetmargin-340-252-137-305-144-56NA-108ppt-82pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EYEsummary31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue584420988268553199547210Profitbeforetaxation27314837911480666472Costofsales557818366237672800840069Depreciationamortization438838134323373515Grossprofit2662623308839877141Changeinworkingcapital2495358412110913214Others340653792664542RDexp17264114521565006800Netcashfromoperating140109587097484285SGAexp29215305668874008730Otherincome872181097001000Capex136243186650915010150Operatingprofit42946579870692137389Others304428758800262533976Netcashfrominvesting440633076135228976174Netfinancecosts111688927447217Othernon-operexp145210551339700700Shareissuance2739913110---Pre-taxprofit27314837911480666472Netborrowings3521438722113817458Others72831660---Incometax12625--Netcashfromfinancing34330146278722113817458Accronpreferredshares2158----Netprofit48904863913980666472Netchangeincash2978419543136510001000Cashatbeginningofyear240831542116351300014000Exchangedifference650363---Cashattheendofyear3154211635130001400015000BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECurrentassets3967948831443074096246128SalesmixCashequivalents2920911025123901339014390Vehiclesales949955925928939Accountreceivables11292673367943836467Servicesandothers5145757261Inventories13432662325634534391Othercurrentassets799832470249821973620879GrowthRevenue15182591280191476Non-currentassets502816821218482963234695GrossprofitNA8860178291791PPE3082542594611653423412OperatingprofitNANANANANAIntangibles608879893899894NetprofitNANANANANAOthernon-currentassets133810517114931219910389Totalassets4470765651661547059480822ProfitlossratioGrossmargin46125115125151Currentliabilities783718013271773867654893Operatingmargin735313324288157Bankborrowings173-82421914327102Netprofitmargin837232340252137Accountpayables511212362130231381219760Currentdeferredrevenue16441865510091530BalancesheetratioOthercurrentliabilities23895232525747126501Netcashtotalequityx1010080401Currentratiox5127161108Non-currentliabilities24405492584967967220Receivableturnoverdays7146505050Bankborrowings16451675215526352135Inventoryturnoverdays8853504540Othernon-currentliabilities7953817369441615085Payableturnoverdays334246200180180Totalliabilities1027723505330264547262113ProfitabilityMezzanineequity-----ROE354127243277295Ordinaryshares00000ROA1818813911885Reserves3443042146331272512218710Shareholdersequity3443042147331282512218710PersharedataRMBTotalequityandliabilities4470765651661547059480822EPS648296534470375DPSNANANANANASourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4