研究报告全文：MN21Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePDDHoldingsPDDUSInvestmenttoenhancelong-termdevelopmentprospectTargetPriceUS10600PDDHoldingsPDDannounced20Mar4Q22resultsrevenuewasup462PreviousTPUS11690YoYtoRMB398bn75belowourBloombergconsensusestimatesNon-UpDownside153GAAPnetincomeattributabletoPDDincreasedby434YoYtoRMB121bnCurrentPriceUS919418aheadofourforecastBloombergconsensusthankstobetter-than-expectedgrossmarginWelowerourDCF-basedTPtoUS1060priorChinaInternetUS1169toaccountforPDDsproactivemovetoenhancemerchantsROIandSaiyiHECFAconsumerengagementamidintensifiedindustrycompetitionintheshort-term85239161739butmaintainBUYasweremainpositiveonPDDsestablishedconsumerhesaiyicmbicomhkmindshareindomesticmarketwhichshouldaidsteadyGMVgrowthin2023andinternationalexpansionpotentialoverthelong-runYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhk2022resultsimpliedanexpansioninmonetizationrateFor2022PDDstotalrevenuereachedRMB1306bnup39YoYor50ifWentaoLUluwentaocmbicomhkexcludingtheimpactofmerchandisesalesbusinessdrivenby42increaseinonlinemarketingservicesandothersand95increaseinSophieHUANGtransactionservicesfeeThoughPDDstoppedtodiscloseannualGMVassophiehuangcmbicomhkmanagementthinksGMVisnolongeragoodmetrictotrackcompanydevelopmentweestimatetheonlinemarketingservicesOMSrevenueEasonXUgrowthhasoutpacedGMVgrowthin2022andmonetizationrateforOMSeasonxucmbicomhkhasexpandedby02ppYoYto32Non-GAAPnetincomewasup186StockDataYoYtoRMB395bntranslatinginto303non-GAAPnetmarginwhichMktCapUSmn1324233expanded156ppYoYdrivenby1controlledinvestmentpacefordomesticAvg3mthstoUSmn919businessand2narrowinglossesgeneratedfromDuoduoGroceryDDG52wHighLowUS104683384TotalIssuedSharesmn14403Transactionservicesrevenuemaintainedrapidgrowthin4Q22OnlineSourceFactSetmarketingservicesandothersrevenueroseby38YoYtoRMB310bninShareholdingStructure4Q2278oftotalrevenueIn4Q22transactionservicesrevenuegrewEntitiesaffiliatedwithZheng279by86YoYtoRMB88bnWeattributethestronggrowthtorobustHuangdevelopmentofDDGandincrementalmonetizationfromtenbillionsubsidyEntitiesaffiliatedwithTencent155SourceNasdaqprogramwhichwebelievecouldsustainin2023InvestmenttoenhanceconsumerengagementweighedonmarginSharePerformancePDDsGPMroseto776in4Q224Q2176152ppbetterthanourAbsoluteRelative1-mth-16-03forecastNon-GAAPSMexpenseswereRMB172bnin4Q22up593-mth56-28YoYequivalentto432oftotalrevenue4Q213973Q223796-mth400378Thisisworsethanourestimateat377whichinourviewcouldbeSourceFactSetattributedtoPDDsmovetoenhancecustomerengagementthroughmore12-mthPricePerformancecouponsprovidedanditsinvestmenttosupportTemusinternationalexpansionPDDsoverallnon-GAAPOPMwas291in4Q224Q213083Q22346inlinewithourforecastFactoringinPDDsinvestmenttoenhanceitsconsumerengagementweareforecasting19YoYnon-GAAPOPgrowthforcoredomesticbusinessin2023Epreviousforecast26YoYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ESourceFactSetRevenueRMBmn93950130558164496195189223878YoYgrowth579390260187147NetprofitRMBmn77687315381327889459112559360AdjustednetprofitRMBmn138295395297413944557223667339EPSAdjustedRMB287438694633ConsensusEPSRMB293536494314PEx1230154244174143PBx12741493728ROE115327234241223SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Mar2023Figure1PDDquarterlyfinancialresultsRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22Onlinemarketingservicesandothers1411118080179462242518158251732842630965YoYgrowth1569636437185287392584381Transactionservicesfees29313008347747245591621670228797YoYgrowth179516411610108390710671020862Merchandisesales51241958828244515658Totalrevenue2216723046215062723123794314403550439820YoYgrowth23898905132673364651462Grossprofit1142115148149472071516634234782809030893Operatingprofit414719972139690721548697104379114Non-GAAPnetprofit18904125315084444200107761244712106GPM515657695761699747791776OPM-187879925491277294229Non-GAAPNPM-13110576243109283298237SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2PDDforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2023E2024ERevenue16451952223917012030-33-39GrossProfit12331478169712791545-36-43OperatingProfit364516656408570-108-96Non-GAAPnetprofit414557667449600-79-71GrossMargin749757758752761-03ppt-04pptOperatingMargin221264293240281-19ppt-17pptNon-GAAPnetmargin252285298264295-12ppt-10pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenue164519522239165219852318-04-17-34GrossProfit123314781697124014911731-06-09-20OperatingProfit364516656408543649-108-5011Non-GAAPnetprofit414557667427541677-3031-14GrossMargin749757758750751747-01ppt06ppt11pptOperatingMargin221264293247273280-26ppt-09ppt13pptNon-GAAPnetmargin252285298258272292-07ppt13ppt06pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Mar2023Figure4PDDDCFvaluationWACCof120terminalgrowthof20bothunchangedRMBbn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ETotalrevenue164496195189223878250275273081292610309846325427NPVofFCF396601Discountedterminalvalue469279TotalPDDequityvaluation1057639Noofsharesdilutedmn1440ValuationpershareUS1060SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue5949293950130558164496195189223878Costofgoodssold192793171831462412464739154149Grossprofit402136223299095123250147798169729Operatingexpenses4959455335686938687096248104126Sellingexpense411954480254344691767544780492Adminexpense150715413965483155376351RDexpense6892899310385128631526317282Others000000Operatingprofit9380689730402363805155165603Interestincome245530623997448353696595Interestexpense757123152242424Foreignexchangegainloss22572150150150150Others1946562221656656656Pre-taxprofit7263945536419413455740272680Incometax01934472684011133616589Others84247155155155155Aftertaxprofit7180776931538327894591155936Minorityinterest000000Netprofit7180776931538327894591155936Adjustednetprofit29651383039530413945572266734BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets149524160909216618259689322257399267Cashequivalents2242164273432676647138537214913Restrictedcash524225961757974579745797457974Accountreceivables7306745887408791008Prepayment516034252298289634363941Othercurrentassets6879190767121431121431121431121431Non-currentassets93852030120502237802378723550PPE20322031045168019872050Right-of-useassets6309391416141614161416Intangibles1277701134277724772177Othernon-currentassets72751645717907179071790717907Totalassets158909181210237120283468346044422817Currentliabilities8388293730116889118657125562135653Short-termborrowings1866013886138861388613886Accountpayables538346251063317639606501370063Othercurrentliabilities167351670718124229372654229834Leaseliabilities253427602602602602Accruedexpenses111931408620961172721951921268Non-currentliabilities14851123652460246024602460Convertiblebonds14433117891576157615761576Othernon-currentliabilities418577884884884884Totalliabilities98733106095119349121117128021138112Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus866999534199255992559925599255Retainedearnings25475177071519359774115445182127Otherreserves104825203322332233223322Totalshareholdersequity6017675115117771162352218022284705Totalequityandliabilities158909181210237120283468346044422817PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation7263945536419413455740272680Depreciationamortization65214951948325138974267Taxpaid01934472684011133616589Changeinworkingcapital31050135629886101762269457Others3759620449808399960410591Netcashfromoperations281972878348508456116579480406InvestingCapitalexpenditure4332872611329039044030Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments9316013026828596000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term55083975470000investmentsOthers2384458845000Netcashfrominvesting383583556222362329039044030FinancingNetborrowings90618750000Proceedsfromshareissues5089303915000Sharerepurchases000000Others003905000Netcashfromfinancing51799187510000NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear3334674844660443432676647138537Exchangedifference140145100000Others0057974000Cashattheendoftheyear748446604415027576647138537214913GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue974579390260187147Grossprofit689548592244199148Operatingprofitnana3408197417273Netprofitnana306040400218Adjnetprofitnana185847346198PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin676662759749757758Operatingmargin15873233221264293Adjnetprofitmargin50147303252285298ReturnonequityROE169115327234241223GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox181719222629Receivableturnoverdays552718151515Payableturnoverdays792966947299563249674552VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEna1230154244174143PEdilutedna797140220163136PB10212741493728SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE521Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6