>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly： Sales continued to cheer up the market-230320
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研究报告全文：20Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorPropertyWeeklySalescontinuedtocheerupOUTPERFORMthemarketMaintainThelatesthighfrequencydatacontinuestocheerupthemarketespeciallythenewhomesaleswhichbooked935WoWMTDYoYgrowthandtheYTDChinaPropertySectordeclinenarrowedto-4YoYSecondaryhomesalesremainedstrongat83JeffreyZengYoYforMTDinMarTogetherwithanotherRRRcutasweexpectedreportand85239163727BEKEsstrongguidancereportmarketconfidenceonsalessustainabilitywasjeffreyzengcmbicomhkfurtherstrengthenedThesolidsalesrecoveryhasalsoacceleratedthepriceofbasicmaterialslikeCement2WoWRebar1WoWGlass2WoWMiaoZhangWithpolicysupportlikeRRRcutwethinkthesalesgrowthislikelyto85237618910remainpositiveinMar-Maywhichgivesagoodopportunitytoplayonthezhangmiaocmbicomhkcontinuousbetter-than-expecteddataandbuyqualitynamesWecontinuetolikeCRLandYuexiuBinjiangHuafaandBEKEBellaLiPropertysales-newhomereportedastrongweekAsofMar16newhome85237576202saleswentup9WoWandtheMarMTDwidenedto35YoYYTDdeclinebellalicmbicomhkwasfurthernarrowedto-4YoYThiswasmainlydrivenbythebettermomentuminTier3citieswhichgrew16WoWandexpandedMTDto41RelatedReportsYoYTier12citiesalsoperformedsolidlyat7WoWand33YoYforMar1KeHoldingsBEKEUS2Q23EMTDSecondaryhomesalesslightlydecreased4WoWbutMTDinMarandwillbeanothermarketsurpriseYTDgrowthwerestillhighat8352YoYWethinkthereisnoneedtobe2ChinaPropertySectorNBS2M23worriedabouttheWoWcorrectionforsecondaryhomessalesas1itisnormaldataStrongasexpectedthatmarketwillreturntoastandardlevelafterthestrongpeak23Febwasthehighestsince21Mayand2salesinMarwilleasilybookaflatYoYgrowth3GreentownService2869HKProfitalertroughlyin-lineevenMoMisexpectedtodrop20whileMTDMoMgrowthisnowat48SalesgrowthtostaypositiveinMar-MayWebelievesalesdatawillstay4ChinaPropertySectorPropertypositiveinMar-Mayas1OurleadingindicatorbookedahighestFebandWeeklyFactsprovedthatmarketispointingtoastrongMar2MarAprareseasonalhighmonthsforprojectoverworriedlaunchingandourrecentchannelchecksawmoredemandsfrombuyerswho5ChinaPropertySectorPropertyareconcernedaboutpotentialhousepricerise3LowbaseinAprMaydueWeeklySalesmomentumtolockdownin20224ContinuouslygoodimplementationofsupportiveacceleratedonlowertiercitiespoliciesonbothdemandsideXuzhoutoissuetickettoboostshantytown6CountryGarden2007HKMrredevelopmentandfinancingsideSeazenHldgtoraisemoneybyPPYeungsretirementnotasurpriseandAgiletoissueCDSaswellasjust-announcedRRRcutof25bpwhich7ChinaPropertySectorFebsaleswashintedbyPBoCsgovernorYiGangon3MarreportastrongbeatRaise2023forecastCementpricewentup2WoWNationalcementpricecontinuedhiking24WoWMoMtoRMB471mtasof15Marwhilethestorageratiowentupto632pptfromthepreviousweekThisismainlyduetounevenrecoverypaceindifferentregionswheresoutheastregionsawsoliddemandcomingbackbutnorthandsouthwestregionsarestilllaggingbehindespeciallySichuanChongqingandYunnanprovincesWethinkthecontinuousimprovementofpropertysalesandconstructionpeakseasonwouldgivesupporttofuturecementpriceSteelrebarpriceup13WoWMoMatRMB4417mtasof15MarmainlydrivenbyoveralldemandrecoveryfromhousingconstructionsboostedbystrongsalesSomerebarsupplierspointedoutthatthelargesizerebarwhichisusedduringfoundationlayingstagesawmoreordersThisfurtherconfirmedthatthegoodsalesmomentumhaspassedtoupperstreamOtherMaterialsAluminumpriceremainstableatRMB18310mtastheupwardmomentumsupportedbydemandwasoffsetbyfluctuatingoverseasmacroFloatglasswentup2WoWlastweekWebelievethestrongsalesrecoverymomentumwillfurtherspreadtoupperstreamanddriveupthepriceofrelatedmaterialsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Mar2023Figure1MarchMTDNewhomesalessurged35YoYvs-14-21-25in2M23Dec-22Nov-22SourceWindCMBIGMFigure2MarchMTDSecondaryhomesalesraisedto83YoYvs4642-12in2M23Dec-22Nov-22SourceWindCMBIGMFigure3NewhomesalesinTier12citiessaw33YoYinMarchMTDSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Mar2023Figure4NewhomesalesinTier3citiessaw41YoYinMarchMTDSourceWindCMBIGMFigure5GAINwasoneofthehighestinFebindicatingverypromisingMarchSourceNBSCMBIGMFigure6AvgpriceofbulkcementPO425national-wideSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Mar2023Figure7NationalcementstorageratioSourceWindCMBIGMFigure8SteelrebarpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure9AluminumingotpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Mar2023Figure105mmplainfloatglasspriceSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE520Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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