研究报告全文：21Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateGreentownManagement9979HKEarningsbeatwithdoublesurprisesonBUYMaintaindividendpayoutMaintainBuyTargetPriceHK939PreviousTPHK860Companys32YoYearningsgrowthin2022slightlybeatthemarketUpDownside295expectationDoublesurprisescomefromaspecialdividendwhichpushestheCurrentPriceHK725payoutratioto100in2022andaliftoffuturepayoutratioto80vs60ChinaPJMSectororiginallyThisboostedthesharepriceby3againsttheHSI-3yesterdayConsidering1companysabsoluteleadingpositionintheindustry255mktMiaoZhangshareamidmorefavorablecompetitivelandscapeasotherswereaffectedby85237618910troubledparentco2MorebusinessfromFIsLGFVswhichpartlyoffsetthezhangmiaocmbicomhkcontinuedslowdowninSMDbusinessand3CompanysgoodtargetcompletionrecordsgoodcashflowandsuperhighdividendpayoutwemaintainbuyandJeffreyZengliftTP9toHK939reflecting18x2023EPE85239163727jeffreyzengcmbicomhkEarningsbeatwithmarginlargelyimprovedCompanyreported32YoYNPgrowthin202202aboveourexpectationastotalGPmarginBellaLisurprisinglylifted6pptto52in2022from46in2021duetodecreasein85237576202staffcostsandslowdowningrowthofservicesoutsourcingcostsFigurebellalicmbicomhk3GPMforcommercialPJMwentup9pptto54from45andwenoticedthattheproportionofself-operatedprojectslargelyincreasedFigure2WeStockDataMktCapHKmn14573thinkitwaslikelydueto1consolidationofShangliwhohasmoreself-Avg3mthstoHKmn1706operatedprojects2Companyneedslesshelpfrompartnerstoexpand52wHighLowHK767419businessamidmorefavorablecompetitivelandscape3PropmarketisTotalIssuedSharesmn2010SourceBloomberghavinghigherqualitystandardthatmakescompanytochoosemoreself-operatingpatterntoavoidrisk4CapitalPJMwithhighermarginwasincludedShareholdingStructureinthissegmentCompanyexpectsNPgrowthtostaystableat30YoYGreentownChinaHolingsLtd7128SUPORIndustrialcapital291LOUGONGWANG123StructureshiftingcontinueswithbusinessfromSMDsfurtherdeclinedSourceHKExCompanysrevenueofRMB27bn184YoYmissedourestimatesby78ascommercialPJMgrowthslowedto07YoYifexcludedtherevenueSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativefromacquiredcompanyvs13YoYin2022withnoacquisitionItis1-mth45109mainlyduetothedeclineinbusinessfromSMDswhichoutpacedthegrowth3-mth160150ofbusinessfromFIsLGFVsetcCommercialPJMnowaccountedfor63of6-mth28-22SourceBloombergtotalrevenuein2022vs66in2021ContributionfromGovernmentPJMreached29closetothecompanystargetof30Companystatedtolift12-mthPricePerformancecontributionfromCapitalPJMincludedinCommercialPJMto20inHK9979HKHSIrebasedthefutureanditalreadyaccountedfor117oftotalnewcontractvaluein102022DoubleSurprisespayoutratioat10080in2022goingforwardCompanysspecialdivofHK09sharepushes2022payoutratioto100totaledHK043sharerepresentsdividendyieldof59Thefuturepayoutratioisalsoliftedto80fromoriginalguidanceof600Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22MaintainBuyandliftTP9toHK939TakeintoaccountofcompanysSourceBloombergAuditorDeloitteabsoluteleadingpositionwith255marketshareintheindustryandmorefavorablecompetitivelandscapeaswellasfactorsincludingcompanyshighbrandvalueassetlightmodelgoodcashflowwithoutdebtsuperhighdividendpayoutratioetcwemaintainBuyratingandliftedTPtoHK939up9fromthepreviousTPreflecting18x2023EPEPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Mar2023EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn22432656337242945465YoYgrowth237184270274273NetincomeRMBmn56574593511741461EPSRMB029038048061075YoYgrowth124307256255244ConsensusEPSRMBNA037046058076PEx22217013510887PBx3834383634Yield3158597492ROE169199278331388NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Mar2023EarningsrevisionConsideringthatthecompetitivelandscapeisbecomingmorefavorableasmostcompetitorsareaffectedbytroubledparentCocompanysmktshareroseto255in2022from224in2021andcontinuedslowdowninSMDbusinesswillbepartlyoffsetbymorebusinessfromFIsLGFVslocalSOEsweliftedourrevenueestimatesby4-10in2023-24Eandexpectittogrowat26-27YoYin2023-25EWeexpectGPMtobestableat50resultedina9-13higherNPestimatesin2023-24ETheNPgrowthwasestimatedat27-28YoYin2023-25EFigure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue33724294546532573910na410naGrossProfit16912143272314721778na1521naOperatingProfit969126916259241142na511naNetprofit935117414618501029na1014naEPSRMB048061075044054na913naGrossMargin501499498452455na49ppt44pptnaOperatingMargin288295297284292na04ppt03pptnaNetMargin277273267261263na16ppt10pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2FY22resultssummary9979HKGreentownMgmtresultssummaryRMBmn20212022YoYvsEstRevenue22432656184-78CommercialPJM14781669130-129GovernmentPJM57278136626Otherservices1942066110Grossprofit1041138933464Netprofit56574531702EPSRMB029038307-06DPSRMB020038900639Dividendpayoutratio689945439pptGPMargin46452359ppt7pptGPMargin-Commercial45549ppt10pptGPMargin-Goernment409408-01ppt0pptGPMargin-Otherservices74284098ppt10pptNetMargin25283ppt2pptNewlycontactedGFAmnsqm22782823239Collectableservicefee711861211TotalcontractedGFAmnsqm846810140197SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure3Self-operatedprojectslargelyincreasedSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Mar2023Figure4StaffcostsdeclinedandServiceOutsourcingcostsgrowthsloweddownCOGSasoftotal20212022YoY20212022YoYStaffcosts49824929-14139-3pptServiceandoutsouringcosts6593665315552-2pptTravelingexpenses13215014110pptAmortizationofintangibleassets00534na044pptOthers31840828331pptTotal12025126745100100naSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure5ValuationtableSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue22432656337242945465Profitbeforetax57173592611651452Commercial14781669209726533346DA2524242424Government572781105714111874Changeinworkingcapital57291021917Otherservice194206218231245Others119118238300374Costofsales12031267168121522742Netcashfromoperating56671468610441325GrossProfit10411389169121432723Capex2139465667Advancerepaymentoflong-termreceivables23836---Sellingandmarketingexpenses93120145176224Others238178110112106Administrationexpenses378489546668843Netcashfrominvesting497253635739Listingfee-----Othergainsandlosses1073303030Dividendspaid3337647489391169Operatingprofit56070796912691625Advancefromrepaymentofarelatedparty25----Proceedsfromissueofnewshares-----Financecost-net110159137138142Others155777Pre-taxProfit7229251161461825Netcashfromfinancing322769755946117654Incometax152189238300374Netchangeincash2603076155188Discontinuedoperations-----Exchangedifference6----PROFITFORTHEYEAR5717359261161452Non-controllinginterest599959Cashatthebeginningoftheyear23972138183018241979NetProfitattributeto56574593511741461Cashattheendoftheyear21381830182419792168shareholdersBalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ECurrentassets37013858426450245980SalesmixBankbalancesandcash21381933182419792168Commercial659629622618612Tradeandotherreceivables749824112614341824Government255294314329343Contractassets4825747259241175Others8677655445Amountsduefromrelatedparties240298361460585Total10001000100010001000Othercurrentassets92228228228228GrowthNon-currentassets15432304192619582001Revenue237184270274273Propertyplantandequipment102109139166203Grossprofit202334217267271Right-of-useassets1719242834Operatingprofit328263371309281Investmentproperties4746464646Netprofit287317256255244Goodwill769982982982982InterestsinassociatesandJVs244317317317317ProfitlossratiosLong-termreceivables238265265265265Grossprofitmargin464523501499498Othernon-currentassets126567154154154Netprofitmargin25228027727326752446161619069827981210205205205205TotalassetsEffectivetaxrateCurrentliabilities18442087250131243908BalancesheetratiosTradeandotherpayables9431173131816882150Cashtotalassets0403030303Amountsduetorelatedparties246221344440561Currentratiox0811080605Contractliabilities385433579737938Receivableturnoverdays122122122122122270260260260260286286286286286OthersPayableturnoverdaysIBLtototalassets000000000--Non-currentliabilities29201201201201Deferredtaxliabilities19103103103103ReturnsLeaseliabilities109999ROE16919927833138818722288270233254110108121151168183TotalliabilitiesROAEquitytoshareholders33413739336435413765PershareSharecapital1617171717EPSRMB029038048061075Reserves33253722334735253749DPSRMB020038039048060Non-controllinginterests30134125115106BVPSRMB174193174183194TotalEquity33723873348836573872SourceCompanyandCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE521Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6