>> 招银国际-China Software & IT Services – Implications of Huawei MetaERP-230320
| 上传日期： |
2023/3/20 |
大小： |
522KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共3页 |
来源： |
招银国际 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
无限制-登录即可下载 |
|
|
研究报告全文：20Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateSoftwareITServicesOUTPERFORMImplicationsofHuaweiMetaERPMaintainMediareportedthatHuaweimaylaunchself-developedERPMetaERPinAprChinaSoftwareITServicesThisisnegativetotheChinaERPmarketascompetitionheatsupbuttheimpactstoYonyouandInspurwillbelargerthanKingdeeastheformersaremorelarge-enterprisesSOEsfocusedAlsoHuaweihastoconsiderthepotentialimplicationsMarleyNGANtoitsCloudbusinessasKingdeeYonyouInspurmayscaledowntheircloud85239163719marleyngancmbicomhkresourcesusagewithHuaweiCloudgivendirectcompetitioninERPMeanwhileHuaweisITservicepartnerssuchasChinasoftiSoftStoneandSiEwillbenefitBowenLIgivenmoreRDandcustomizationdemandHoweverweareconcernedthatthe85237618957top-linebenefitscannotbefullyreflectedintheirbottom-lineasHuaweisprojectslibowencmbicomhkmargindeclinedHuaweimaylaunchself-developedERPinAprMediareportedthatHuaweimaylaunchMetaERPofficiallyinApr2023ThenewsquotedaspeechdeliveredbyHuaweisfounderMrRenZhengfeiinFeb2023AccordingtothespeechHuaweihasreplaced13000componentsand4000circuitboardsforitsproductswithdomesticsubstitutesinthepastthreeyearsMeanwhileHuaweihasdevelopedanERPsystemMetaERPwithitsownOSdatabasecompilerandlanguageMetaERPhasbeenimplementedandtestedbyinternaldepartmentsgloballyChinaERPmarketcompetitionheatsupWethinkHuaweispotentialmoveisnegativetotheoverallERPmarketascompetitionmayheatupForthepositioningofMetaERPwethinkitaimstoreplaceSAPOraclebeingusedbylarge-enterprisesTheimpacttoYonyou83cloudrevenuefromlargeenterprisesGovtinFY21andInspurwillbelargerthanKingdee19AlsowethinkthatHuaweihastoconsidertheimpactofdirectcompetitionwithitscloudcustomersincludingKingdeeYonyouWeestimatethatKingdeesannualprocurementofHuaweiCloudresourcesamountstooverRMB100mnlevelKingdeeYonyoumayscalebackandshifttouseothercloudvendorsifcompetitioninERPbecomesfierceHuaweisITservicepartnerstobenefitontop-linebutmarginisaconcernWethinkHuaweisITservicepartnersincludingChinasoftiSoftStoneandSiEwillbenefitgivenincreasingRDandimplementationworkrelatedtoMetaERPHoweverweareconcernedthattheseprojectshavelowermarginandthatthetop-linebenefitscannotbefullyreflectedintheirbottom-lineWehaveobservedthemargindeclinetrendinChinasoftGPM298inFY19to267inFY21andiSoftStoneGPM269inFY19to247inFY21sinceHuaweibusinessfacedheadwindsformUSsanctionsSharepriceover-reactedbuyKingdeeAsanewentranttotheERPmarketwethinkittakestimeforHuaweitoproveandrampuptheMetaERPThepotentialcompetitionwithexistingERPvendorscouldbelimitedintheneartomediumtermAlongtheERPsupplychainwepreferKingdeeforitsstandardizedSaaSGalaxyperformanceandstrongXinchuangordersValuationTableRelatedReports1Kingdee268HKSaaSandPriceTPEVsalesPEROESalesCAGRXinchuangbothingoodshape17FY23EFY23EFY23EFY21-24EMar2023linkTickerRatingLCLCKingdee268HKBUY1342232864na-4172Kingdee268HKBiddingdataYonyou600588CHHOLD25402227671028417impliedacceleratedsoftwaresubstitution14Feb2023linkInspur596HKNR451na0717710263Yonyou600588CHChinasoft354HKBUY53091405951115Distressedmarginwithnon-iSoftstone301236CHNR4262na101571723standardizedcloud1Feb2023linkSiE300687CHNR3692na453851429SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Mar2023Figure1Huaweitolaunchself-developedMetaERPinApr2023accordingtoaspeechdeliveredbyHuaweisfounderMrReninFeb2023inaChineseuniversitySourceCMBIGMFigure2KingdeecloudrevenuemixFY21Figure3YonyoucloudrevenuemixFY21GovtpublicLargesectorclientsenterprise13Small19Smallmicromicrobusinessesbusinesses1036Mid-sizedenterprises7Medium-Large-sizedsizedenterprisesenterprise7045SourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure4HuaweirevenuecontributionFY21Figure5GPMtrendRevenuefromHuaweiGPM6032305028402630242022102020182019202020210ChinasoftiSoftstoneChinasoftiSoftstoneSiESourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
|
|
