研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary20Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereweakthismorningAsianIGoverallwidened10-20bpsHSBCAT1downc10ptsasaresultofCSAT1writedownChinaAT1wererelativelyGlennKoCFA高志和firmerwithc2ptslowerandwesawactivebuyingflowswhenthepricedown85236576235glennkocmbicomhkLNGFORResilientFY22resultsBuyLNGFORsLNGFORsmoved-05to05ptthismorningSeebelowHRINTHChinaHuarongexpectsaroundRMB276bnFY22netlossonCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩declineinfairvalueofcertainequityfinancialassetsandhigherprovisions85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkforcreditimpairmentlossesHRINTHsdown025to1ptbymid-dayTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkAsiaIGspaceopenedunchangedtomarginallyfirmerlastFridayUSTyieldsclimbed5-20bpsacrossthecurveonThurnightCSsspilloverandECBs50bpshikemademarketreassessglobalratesoutlookIntocloseChinaannouncedtocutRRRby25bpsChinaSOEswereatouchstrongerHAOHUA29s30stightened5-8bpsTMTsgenerallyedged1-5bpstighterTENCNT31sBABA31stightened2-4bpstoT160andT167respectivelyInChinafinancialsT2sCCB29s30swerestilltradedflatatrecentwideBNKEA67527weremarkedanother30bpswiderThaiT2salsomarchedanother5-10bpswiderElsewhereKoreancorpHYUELE33stightened8bpsChinapropertyspacewerelargelysidewaysexceptforCENCHIswhichmoved1-2ptslowerThatsaidweweretoldthatCENCHIhadcuredthemissedcouponsROADKG24dropped25ptsandrestofROADKGsweredown05ptSINOCEsweredown05ptandAGILEslowered05-1ptMacaugamingnamesMPELsSANLTDsWYNMACsweremarked05-15ptshigherIndianspacewasmutedVEDLNsdrifted05-1ptlowerwhilerenewablesremainedfirmIndonesiannamesLPKRIJsweredown025-075ptMoodysaffirmedLippoKarawacisratingatB3anddowngradeditsbondratingtoCaa1fromB3MEDCIJswereup05-1ptIntheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVspacessentimentwasoverallcalmasmarketdigestedtheCSdevelopmentandlookedforwardtocomingWedsFOMCaftertheECBs50bpshikeInAT1spacetheHSBC8Perpwasactivelytradedhigheragainto99-handlebeforecomingdownbackto98afterLondonenteredFlowsontheHSBCAT1remainedbetterbuyingfromregionalPBsAMsversussellingfromEuropeRestofAsiaAT1swerelargelystablePerpshadanupbeatsessionwithmoreactivemixedflowsSOEnamesweregenerallybetterbidCTIH64outperformedtocloseat101625SPICPTCHCOMUCHALUMperpsperformedstrongafterChinas25bpsRRRcutMeanwhilewesawbettersellingflowsinCNSHANandHKCGASbutbidsremainedresilientHYSANandZHHFGRwereunderbetterbuyingPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk120Mar2023LGFVsweremixedwithbondscomingoutofhigh-betafrontendpapersGXFINGSHARAOGSHIAVbuttheyweredigestedfairlywellbyPBandcashparkingdemandWesawclientslookingtoparkcashalsosoughtafteroffersinfrontendqualitynamesYWSOAOHZCONIJXCCMZLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeZHHFGR414PERP93719ROADKG52011226756-24YANTZE3210164975218ROADKG7PERP639-19CITLTD4604143593017EHICAR7092126703-16CITLTD48504254695017CENCHI714042423517-14MPEL51404262689214CENCHI734052424285-12MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsturnedtodownonlastFridaySP-110Dow-119andNasdaq-074wereweakamidmarketworriesaboutbankingsectorriskTheUniversityofMichigansMarchindexofconsumersentimentreleasedas634downfrom67inFebChinaPBOCcutRRRby25bpstheaverageweightedRRRoffinancialinstitutionis76afterthecutTheUStreasuryyieldsoveralldroppedlastFridaythe251030yieldsreached381344339360respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点LNGFORResilientFY22resultsBuyLNGFORsLongfordeliveredresilientFY22resultslastFridayTotalcontractsalesinFY22amountedtoRMB2016bnwith1305mnsqmGFAsoldRevenueandcorenetprofitbothincreasedby122yoytoRMB2506bnand05yoytoRMB225bnrespectivelyItsprofitmarginsdespitedeclinedyoyarealsomoreresilientcomparedtothatofpeersgrossprofitmarginat212andcorenetprofitmarginat123ThebetterthanpeersfinancialperformancewassupportedbythegrowthinrecurringrentalandpropertyservicesbusinessesastheirmarginsarehigherthanthemarginofpropertydevelopmentThetotalrevenuecontributionfromthesetworecurringsegmentsincreasedby1yoyto94alsohelptooffsetthedecliningmarginofpropertydevelopmentThereisnoguidanceonsalesorcashflowtargetin2023Thecompanyacquired34landparcelsinFY22toreplenishthesaleableresourcesinhighertiercitiesComparedtoFY22theFY23saleableresourcesintier1includingHKandleadingtier2citiesincreasedto56from50The2M23contractsalesamounttoRMB184bnup40yoyThefinancialpositionwassolidatDec22TotalcashbalanceatRMB726bncashtoshort-termdebtat352xand3redlinesareallingreencampsLongforexpectstomaintainthetotaldebtlevelatRMB208bninFY23andcontinuestooptimizeitsdebtstructureincludingtoincreasetheportionofonshorebankfinancingThecompanyisabletoobtainongoingfundingviabondissuanceandbankfinancingfundingchannelsremaindiverseInparticularthecompanyissued4onshorebondstotalingRMB5bninwhichRMB500mnissuedMay22withCDStwoCBICL-guaranteedMTNsRMB15bninAug22firstissuanceinrealestatesectorandRMB2bninNov22aswellasanoffshoreloansunderonshoreguaranteeofRMB700mninDec22ForoffshoreduesthereisnooffshoreUSDbondsmaturityuntil2027MaturitiesinHKDwillbecHKD10bnin2023aftertheearlyrepaymentofsyndicatedloanHKD51bninOct22andcHKD15bnin2024Theoffshorematuritiesaremanageableinourview220Mar2023ThepriceofLNGFORsare6-9ptslowersincemid-FebAtahighsingledigityieldwhileitsIGratingMSFBaa2BBB-BBBremainintactweseethelowcashpricesarebetterentrypointsandrecommendbuyonLNGFORsLNGFORsarealsolow-betaIGplayswithbettercarrythanpeerssuchasChinaJinmaoVankeChinaOverseasLandandChinaResourcesLandPxmidYTMmidAmountosUSDmnLNGFOR337504132783682245LNGFOR4501162883987500LNGFOR39509162976987850LNGFOR38501133272184400Total1995CHIOLIs50-58CHJMAOs63-93CRHZCHs50-84VNKRLEs60-67SourceBloombergOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFZhangzhouTransportation125364d628628---DevelopmentGroupCoLtdOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere79creditbondsissuedlastFridaywithanamountofRMB75bnAsforMonth-to-date1407creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1202bnraisedrepresentinga113yoyincreaseADEINMediareportedthatAdaniGroupseekstorefinanceUSD115bnoverseasbondsforAdaniPortsAdaniGreenEnergyviaprivateplacementsAGILEAgileGroupunitproposestoofferuptoRMB12bncUSD17462mntwo-yearcorporatebondstorepaydebtsCOGARDCountryGardenannouncedthatitisstillintheprocessofapplicationforissueuptoRMB186bncUSD27bnonshorebonds320Mar2023DAFAPGDaFaPropertiesmaynotbeabletopublishthe2022annualresultsonorbefore31MarEVERREMediareportedthatChinaEvergrandeisclosertoarestructuringdealwithitsoffshorebondholdersandithasreceivedcreditorsupportforrestructuringHRINTHChinaHuarongexpectsaroundRMB276bnFY22netlossondeclineinfairvalueofcertainequityfinancialassetsandhigherprovisionsforcreditimpairmentlossesLPKRIJMoodysaffirmedLippoKarawaciB3CFRanddowngradedbondratingstoCaa1REDSUNRedsunPropertiesexpectstogetRMB3-4bnlossforFY22SHIMAOMediareportedShanghaiShimaoJiansheextendsvotingdeadlineforholisticdomesticbondrestructuringto23MarTPHLTimesChinaexpectstorecordnetlossofuptoRMB10bnforFY22YXREITYuexiuREITtoissueRMB15bn415guaranteednotesdue2026forrefinancingCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimer420Mar2023ForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5