>> 招银国际-China Policy – RRR cut is a gift from new cabinet-230320
| 上传日期： |
2023/3/20 |
大小： |
813KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共6页 |
来源： |
招银国际 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
无限制-登录即可下载 |
|
|
研究报告全文：20Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyRRRcutisagiftfromnewcabinetTheRRRcutindicatesPBOCseasingbiasforliquidityandcreditpolicyTheBingnanYEPhDrecentfailureoffewsmallbanksintheUSshouldremindglobalcentralbanks85237618967howfragilethebankingsystemistotheconfidenceshockChinasmoneymarketyebingnancmbicomhkrateshaveincreasednoticeablyinthepastthreemonthsmainlyduetohigherliquiditydemandafterthereboundingofcreditsupplyandeconomicactivityHoweveritmayunderminenewleaderscommitmenttogrowthvowedlast1615DecemberattheCentralEconomicWorkingConferenceasithaseroded14investorsconfidenceaboutChinaspolicysupportandrecoveryprospectThe1312RRRcutisverytimelyasitshowsnewcabinetsstrongcommitmenttogrowth11LookingforwardoverseasrecessionriskmaycontinuetorisewhileChinasGDP109growthshouldremainbelowthepotentialgrowthwithlimitedreflationriskChina8hastomaintainaccommodativeliquidityandcreditpolicytoboostdomestic76demandWeexpectthePBOCmaycuttheRRRbyadditional025pptwithinthis201720182019202020212022yearThecentralbankwillmaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostcreditsupplyto1Q23manufacturingservicebusinessesandSMEsBanksweightedaverageRRRSourceWindCMBIGMThepolicymoveindicatesPBOCseasingbiasforliquidityandcreditpolicyThePBOCsaidtheRRRcutwasaimedatmaintainingreasonableandsufficientliquiditysupplytosupportreasonableeconomicgrowthAsliquiditydemandhasreboundedalongwithnewcreditsupplyandeconomic45activitymoneymarketrateshaveincreasednoticeablyinthepastthree40monthsBanks7Dreporatesand3MShiborrespectivelyrosefrom17and35175inearlyNovemberlastyearto21and25lastweekThehousing30marketrecoveredbetterthanexpectedaftertheCNYholidayassome25investorsstartedtoworryaboutpossiblechangesinthePBOCsattitude20HowevertheRRRcutsendsaclearsignalthatthePBOCwillmaintain1510accommodativeliquidityandcreditpolicyintheshorttermtoboostthegrowth2017201820192020202120222023ThepolicymoveisasignalfromthenewcabinetforitsstrongPBOC7DrepoBanks7DrepocommitmenttotheeconomicgrowthTheRRRcutwasannouncedthree1YMLF1YLPRdaysafterthefirstexecutivemeetingofthenewcabinetAtthepressSourceWindCMBIGMconferenceaftertheNPCannualsessionon13MarchPremierLiQiangpledgedtousethepackagesofmacropoliciesdemandbuoyancymeasuresreforminnovationpoliciesandriskreliefmeasurestoboosteconomicgrowthamidglobaleconomicuncertaintyThepolicymakershavetorebuildthecredibilityoftheirpolicieswhichwaserodedlastyearWebelievetheRRRcutisasignalfromthenewcabinetforitsstrongcommitmenttothegrowththisyearWeexpectadditionalRRRcutby025pptthisyearTherecentfailureoffewUSsmallbanksalsoremindsthePBOChowfragilethebankingsystemistotheconfidenceshockThebankingsystemhasamultiple-layerliquiditydistributionasfrangibilitylurksinthedarkplaceandcouldcausesystematicrisksiftheconfidenceofdepositorsorinvestorsdeterioratesChinasmoneymarketratesandbondrateshaveincreasednoticeablyaftertheannouncementofeconomicreopeninginearlyNovemberwhichbroughtashocktobanksWMPsandhurtinvestorconfidenceAfurtherincreaseofmoneymarketratescouldthreatenChinasshakyrecoveryasoverseasrecessionriskcontinuestoriseChinasGDPgrowthremainsbelowthepotentialgrowthasthereflationpressureisverylowThereforethePBOCPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Mar2023hastomaintainaccommodativeliquidityandcreditpolicytosupportthegrowthWeexpectthePBOCmaylaunchadditionalRRRcutby025pptintheremainingmonthsthisyearThecentralbankwillmaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostcreditsupplytomanufacturingservicebusinessesandSMEsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Mar2023Figure1RRRCutsFrom2021DateEffectivedateRRRchangeWARRRIncrementalliquidity20233172023327025pptformostbanks76Rmb500bn202211252022125025pptformostbanks78Rmb500bn025pptformostbanksand2022415202242581Rmb530bn05pptforregionalbanks20211262021121505pptforalmostallbanks84Rmb12trn202179202171505pptforalmostallbanks89Rmb1trn202143415202151520211pptforregionalbanks94Rmb400bnSourceWindCMBIGMFigure2BanksEffectiveRRRExcessReserveRatioFigure3PBOCsClaimtoBanksRmbtrn25232119171513119752017201820192020202120222023PBOCsclaimtobanksBanksreservedepositinPBOCSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure41DShiborM2SupplyGrowthFigure5MoneyMarketRatesYoY3135012454021135103025192081507102017201820192020202120222023201620172018201920202021202220231DShiborLHSM2YoYRHSYueBao3MShibor6MNCDSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Mar2023Figure6ChinasBondMarketRatesFigure7ChinasLoanRatesaveragerate76566055545034522017201820192020202120222023407YT-bond7YAAACorporatebond20162017201820192020202120227YAACorporatebondLoanCorporateloanMortgageloanSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure8CreditM2SupplyGrowthFigure9EMVolatilityWeeklyNorthboundInflowYoYindexRmbbn1745501640401530143520101330012251011202010309154082022720232017201820192020202120222023EMETFvolatilityLHSTSFoutstandingRMBloanM2WeeklyNorthboundinflowRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure10RetailSalesFAIandExportsFigure11HousingSalesbyCityYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoY2YCAGRfor20213011090207010503001010103020503070201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023RetailsalesFAIExportsofgoodsTier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Mar2023Figure12ChinasLandSalesFigure13LandRevenueInfrastructureInvestmentYoY3MMA3MMA8060605040402030020204010600201720182019202020212022GFAforlandsalesLandpremiumtobasepriceSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure14ChinasInflationFigure15CoreCPIGrowthT-bondRatesYoYYoY340433032202102101110002013012019202020212022202320162017201820192020202120222023CoreCPILHSFoodpriceRHSFuelpriceRHSCoreCPIYoY2YT-bondratesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure16MobilityIndicatorsinTier-1CitiesFigure17USDRMBExchangeRatesIndexTenThousands204030152010100201907202107201901202001202007202101202201202207202301DailytrafficcongestionindexLHSDailysubwaypassengerflowRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE520Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
|
|
