注意消费的季节性回落
　　①消费持续回暖，但存在季节性拐点。深加工的消费量当前已经超过历史同期，但库存累积已经到达历史最高水平，同时存在消费的季节性回落可能性，饲料企业消费处于季节性回升，但仍同比偏低。
　　②售粮进度开始趋缓，港口库存季节性回升。在超过去年同期水平后，售粮进度近期增幅开始减慢，可以看到港口库存仍将保持季节性回升，直到回归至正常水平线内。
　　总结：综合来看，下游的消费还是存在一定韧劲的，但是需要注意的是在中转库存的过程中，下游需要进行一定的去库才能更良性的循环，市场即将达到一个瓶颈期。尽管盘面本周的表现偏强，但这种偏强可能更多来自于对稻谷抛储时间预期变化的体现，玉米及淀粉上方的空间相当有限。

研究报告全文：南华玉米淀粉周报20230318注意季节性拐点南华研究院边舒扬Z0012647玉米淀粉周度综述本周总结上游下游饲料企业平均库存3288天周环比增加061天较去年同期下跌供应全国售粮进度为77较上期增加5较去年同期增加1多饲料养殖1606饲料企业库存小幅调整但幅度有限多北方港口库存2786万吨同比增加277万吨当周北方港口淀粉加工企业上周消化玉米461万吨较前一周减少15万吨深库存下海量102万吨同比减少8万吨广东内贸库存48万吨较中淀粉加工企业玉米库存6055万吨环比增加139已经达到历史均多上周增加76万吨外贸库存1213万吨较上周减少103万吨值附近进口美玉米累计出口给中国4185万吨本周出口至中国1287万吨多酒精酒精企业上周消化玉米4142万吨环比上调086万吨中玉米基差近期基差呈现季节性回落期货与现货当前平水中淀粉期现5月基差收敛明显多美玉米出口呈现增长态势截至3月9日当周美出口2223年美玉米多其他因素未来中国将增加巴西玉米的进口但整体量有限且周期偏长空度玉米172467万吨其中单周为11649万吨注意消费的季节性回落消费持续回暖但存在季节性拐点深加工的消费量当前已经超过历史同期但库存累积已经到达历史最高水平同时存在消费的季节性回落可能性饲料企业消费处于季节性回升但仍同比偏低观点售粮进度开始趋缓港口库存季节性回升在超过去年同期水平后售粮进度近期增幅开始减慢可以看到港口库存仍将保持季节性回升直到回归至正常水平线内总结综合来看下游的消费还是存在一定韧劲的但是需要注意的是在中转库存的过程中下游需要进行一定的去库才能更良性的循环市场即将达到一个瓶颈期尽管盘面本周的表现偏强但这种偏强可能更多来自于对稻谷抛储时间预期变化的体现玉米及淀粉上方的空间相当有限策略空玉米多淀粉套利考虑止盈离场技术分析玉米价格当前处于均线交织的情况中走势还不明朗淀粉价格承压于120日均线进一步上行的压力增加美玉米反弹后635价格附近压力较大风险港口库存变化淀粉企业原料库存去化问题玉米淀粉周度统计期货数据合约收盘价周涨跌涨跌幅备注现货数据价格周涨跌基差变化C012734-4-015锦州港2830-10-2024C052836-14-049蛇口港2930-208034玉米CC092802-19-067四平2720-10-13024玉米主力2836-14-049C2305潍坊28200-3014CS0130918026黑龙江300020-1077CS05310713042吉林305050-5737淀粉CSCS09315411035河北3130023-13淀粉主力310713042CS2305山东3170106327CBOT玉米玉米主力63475165267ZC2305期货价差数据价差周涨跌重点关注现货价差数据价差周涨跌01-05-10210锦州港-蛇口港-10010玉米C05-09345玉米现货锦州港-四平110009-016858锦州港-潍坊10-1001-05-16-5黑龙江-吉林-50-30淀粉CS05-09-472淀粉现货黑龙江-河北-1302009-016372黑龙江-山东-17010仓单数据仓单增减售粮进度本周上周进口利润价格涨跌利润增减玉米38713-8659全国7974美西地区267473-3602255271602淀粉7768-1198东北7973美湾地区265204-4873277962873加工利润利润增减玉米淀粉黑龙江-1103港口当周增减库存当周增减吉林-11061北方四港278607940企业库存9680070淀粉河北-1012广东内贸48001860可售库存60-1库存山东-11210广东外贸1213002物理库存1021黑龙江-204-36下游当周增减产量当周增减酒精吉林-3620饲料企业3288061全国3227130802河南-691-130加工厂6055022730山东1309639玉米淀粉期货玉米期货走势图淀粉期货走势图上周玉米期货后期略有反弹整300034002950体区间横盘震荡290033002850320028002750310027002650300026002900美玉米连续抬升255025002800价格走势转头向上收四连阳玉米01玉米05玉米09淀粉01淀粉05淀粉09内外玉米价格对比玉米淀粉主力走势淀粉与玉米价85031003200差保持较低水80030003100平有扩大趋290075030002800势7002700290065026002800250060027002400550230026005002200250003CBOT玉米大连玉米玉米主力玉米淀粉主力玉米价差5-9价差略有抬升区间震荡仍与2021年相似但波动幅度更小玉米1-5价差玉米5-9价差玉米9-1价差4010015020501000-20050-40-500-60-80-100-50-100-150-100-1201526313942212934455768728310110911212411312112921422231732541041861718191101111121426217225312320328413421429515523531616624710718726811819827101710251110111811261212122012281901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301玉米1-3价差玉米3-5价差玉米5-7价差6060804060402004020-20200-40-600-80-20-20-100-40-120-40-140-60-60-160-8091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251118115122129252122192263431131832541484154224291115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307玉米7-9价差玉米9-11价差玉米11-01价差80100406080302040601020400020-10-200-20-40-20-30-60-40-40-80-60-50313831532232945412419426535105175245316761462162851585155225296561261962673710717724731878148218287178715722729858128198269299916923930107101410211028041907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22092307-23091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22112309-23111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-23012311-2401玉米基差现货东北价格稳中偏弱基层地趴梁进入收尾阶段大型收购主体采购心态仍然谨慎建库意愿较低主要以消化前期库存为主地区内市场上量节奏逐渐放缓港口库存缓速上升华北价格趋稳运行维持窄幅调整基层流通情况尚稳供需情况平缓短期以稳定为主销区饲料企业观望情绪强采购意愿不强港口走货有走弱趋势基差近期基差呈现季节性回落但期货与现货当前平水整体偏强玉米01基差玉米05基差玉米09基差400400400300300300200200200100100100000-100-100-100-200-200-200-300-300-30021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222锦州港-1901锦州港-2001锦州港-2101锦州港-1905锦州港-2005锦州港-2105锦州港-1909锦州港-2009锦州港-2109锦州港-2201锦州港-2301锦州港-2205锦州港-2305锦州港-2209锦州港-2309玉米03基差玉米07基差玉米11基差60060060040040040020020002000-2000-200-400-600-200-400-800-400-600-1000-800-1200-600-1000-800-1200-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101锦州港-1903锦州港-2003锦州港-2103锦州港-1907锦州港-2007锦州港-2107锦州港-1911锦州港-2011锦州港-2111锦州港-2203锦州港-2303锦州港-2207锦州港-2307锦州港-2211锦州港-231105淀粉价差5-9价差稳定区间运行抬升后保持中性水平淀粉1-5价差淀粉5-9价差淀粉9-1价差10020020015050150100100050050-50-500-100-100-50-150-150-200-100-200-250-15015263139-25042211012910934112451245711312112968214222723173258341041842621710172251025312111032011183281126413121242112204291228515523531616624710718726811819617181911011111218271901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301淀粉1-3价差淀粉3-5价差淀粉5-7价差804001006030050402002000100-50-200-40-100-100-60-80-200-150-100-300-20091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228111811512212925212219226343113183254148415422429101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307淀粉7-9价差淀粉9-11价差淀粉11-1价差15012020010010015050801006005040-50200-1000-50-150-20-100-40-200-150-60-250-80-20006-300-100-2503138315322329454124194265351051752453167614621628515851552252965612619626737107177247318781482182871787157227298581281982692999169239301071014102110281907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-2301淀粉基差整体稳中偏强供需处于博弈状态上游企业持续亏损维持挺价心态现货下游企业订单仍未消化采购意愿偏低存在部分企业急于出货仓单低价货源流出等利空因素但向下空间有限成本支撑以及副产品下跌等利多因素仍将维持市场基差当前基差表现平稳现货仍小幅升水05淀粉01基差淀粉05基差淀粉09基差100010001000800800800600600600400400400200200200000-200-200-200-400-400-400-60061779513283348213841577694613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129101110231116112812101222101010221115112712211011111211121314151617181潍坊-1901潍坊-2001潍坊-2101潍坊-2201潍坊-2301潍坊-1905潍坊-2005潍坊-2105潍坊-2205潍坊-2305潍坊-1909潍坊-2009潍坊-2109潍坊-2209潍坊-2309淀粉03基差淀粉07基差淀粉11基差15001200120010001000100080060080040060050020040002000-200-4000-500-600-200-800-400-1000-1000-600-800-1500-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101潍坊-1903潍坊-2003潍坊-2103潍坊-2203潍坊-2303潍坊-1907潍坊-2007潍坊-2107潍坊-2207潍坊-2307潍坊-1911潍坊-2011潍坊-2111潍坊-2211潍坊-231107淀粉-玉米现米粉价差-绥化元吨1200淀粉-玉米价差持续扩大已达到350元吨100080060040020001148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230201820192020202120222023米粉价差-公主岭元吨米粉价差-潍坊元吨120012001000100080080060060040040020020000567111486399294171941136658912921232552071582610712211522631142261772981292311411412741442761871491793012422231951052372782211810211216111812301121121710131026123020182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202308淀粉-玉米期盘面淀粉-玉米价差波动剧烈价差有持续扩大淀粉-玉米01价差淀粉-玉米05价差淀粉-玉米09价差60070065060050060055040050050045030040040020030035030010020025001002006177951535135428693373488821384157769410161362511671973181282491711792912921022211431732941042211551612752822062131571532772742082021322532041342551953161262471873081182391692811312910131025111811301212122410111023111611281210122210101022111511271221190120012101220123011905200521052205230519092009210922092309淀粉-玉米03价差淀粉-玉米07价差淀粉-玉米11价差800700800700700600600600500500500400400400300300300200200200100100100001636899255749634536881142949118130211223318330716728821914926108121411423517529610622825116128316421620813918930115221328515527122510204151617181911011111211121121310121024112912111117122319032003210322032303190720072107220723071911201121112211231109玉米淀粉仓单玉米仓单回落加大淀粉仓单持续回落但仍为同期高位玉米仓单变化张玉米淀粉仓单变化张18000025000160000140000200001200001500010000080000100006000040000500020000001148566371991148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230102111181216123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023吉林云天营口百丰达孚锦州中粮贸易大连象屿仓库中粮贸易维维股份嘉吉投资浙江农发厦门象屿陕西粮农河北粮产京粮粮贸锦州港锦阳锦州良运港北良港中储辽宁总计化泰仓储库中孚库锦象库玉米仓单数量200350070004410007276594800234200129380401013819300121649648本周增减000000-800-15501200-3189-10000-4628中粮生化北安象屿富锦象屿仓库山东中谷山东福洋诸城兴贸松原嘉吉辽宁益海山东福宽玉峰实业龙凤玉米黑龙江昊天益海富裕京粮龙江总计龙江生化生化淀粉仓单数量14006205402500000440890468451250012806049本周增减00-20000000-70-100-500250012803360010CFCT持仓净多单CFTC净多单大幅回落但美玉米上周连续拉升收四连阳CFTC非商业净多头变化内外玉米价格对比60000085031008003000500000750290040000070028006502700300000600260020000055025005002400100000450230004002200-100000-200000-3000002019-08-132020-08-132021-08-132022-08-13CBOT玉米大连玉米011进口利润尽管2月进口增加明显但目前美玉米出口偏低已远远落后于去年两年同期美玉米出口至中国吨1200000中国玉米月度进口对比吨玉米淀粉月度进口对比千克4000000300000010000003500000250000030000008000002000000250000060000020000001500000150000010000004000001000000500000500000200000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月009011001110112010101020103010401050106010701080120182019202020212022202320172018201920202021202218191920202121222223美玉米出口至中国吨玉米到岸完税价及利润变化2500000038006003600400340020000000200320030000150000002800-2002600-4001000000024002200-60050000002000-800009011001110112010101020103010401050106010701080101218191920202121222223美西完税价美墨完税价美西利润美墨利润美玉米作物生长报告美玉米种植进度4月开始美玉米出芽率4月下旬开始美玉米优良率5月底开始美玉米抽丝率6月底开始1001009010090909085808080807070706075506060704050503065404020601030300552020第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周101050周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周123456780091011121314151617181920212223第第第第第第第第第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第第第第第第第第第第第第第第第五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值美玉米鼓粒率7月下旬开始美玉米干粒率8月初开始美玉米成熟率8月下旬开始美玉米收割进度9月中旬开始1001001001009090909080808080707070706060606050505050404040403030303020202020101010100000第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值013玉米售粮进度全国售粮进度东北地区售粮进度120120100100808060604040202000142538414953142538414953111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111711251211121912271117112512111219122716171718181919202021212222231617171818191920202121222223全国售粮进度为77较上期增加5较去年同期增加1东北售粮进度79环比增加6与去年同期增加1014港口企业库存北方四港库存万吨广东港内贸库存万吨广东港外贸库存万吨5501601405001401204501201004001003508080300606025040200401502020100001111293648415663657171899994114856637199115114129127212226222311325319422414427510520523617618715714729727812826822923917107930114118122124115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122102110131026111811211216121712301230102111181216123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023主要深加工企业玉米库存万吨广东福建玉米淀粉物理库存万吨主要企业淀粉库存万吨7505000016014065045000120550400001004503500080300006035025000402502020000150015000114856637199114856637199115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122102111181216123010211118121612302018-09-072019-09-072020-09-072021-09-072022-09-0720192020202120222023广东四港福建四港201820192020202120222023北方四港库存季节性上行但同比偏低广东港内贸库存季节性回落但同比偏高广东港外贸库存低位小幅回落深加工企业库存持续上升已达到历史偏高水平015玉米淀粉物理库存增长后略有回落主要企业淀粉保持平稳玉米淀粉产量全国69家样本企业玉米淀粉产量变化万吨山东24家样本企业玉米淀粉产量万吨401635141230102586204152010112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812411233749516376881013102611211217123011212321422531832942051252361462571772881983091092110211412710131024111511261218122920202021202220232020202120222023玉米淀粉产量继续季节性波动当前略有调整主产区山东玉米淀粉产量季节性回升保持平稳状态016玉米加工消费深加工企业玉米消费量表现平稳但处于历史偏高水平玉米淀粉企业消费季节性回落玉米酒精消费逆季节性继续上扬主要深加工企业玉米消费量万吨玉米淀粉企业玉米消费量万吨13075701206511060551005090454080357030114856637199112936416571899411512921222631132542252061771572981282692310711412211412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812410211118121612301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023玉米酒精企业玉米消费量万吨氨基酸企业玉米消费量万吨452422402035183016251412201015801729364111657189942936411165718994222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822101310261121121712301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023饲料生猪饲料企业库存天数4341全国饲料企业玉米库存季节性回升但远低于历史水平393735本周生猪出栏均价重新回落全国均价达到1513元公斤环比下跌213333129上周配合饲料价格回落整体重心下移2725112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812410131026112112171230202120222023玉米与生猪价格对比元吨配合饲料价格元公斤3000300004202950280002900260004002850240003802800220002750200003602700180002650160003402600140003202550120002500100003002021-03-242021-08-242021-10-242022-01-242022-02-242022-03-242022-08-242022-10-242023-01-242021-04-242021-05-242021-06-242021-07-242021-09-242021-11-242021-12-242022-04-242022-05-242022-06-242022-07-242022-09-242022-11-242022-12-242023-02-242021-10-212021-11-212021-12-212022-01-212022-02-212022-03-212022-04-212022-06-212022-08-212022-09-212022-11-212023-01-212023-02-212022-05-212022-07-212022-10-212022-12-21玉米锦州港国标二等价商品猪出栏价育肥猪配合饲料蛋鸡配合饲料肉鸡配合饲料018加工利润玉米制淀粉利润玉米制乙醇利润1502000100150010005050000-50-500-100-1000-150-1500-2000-2002020-03-192020-05-192020-07-192020-09-192020-11-192021-01-192021-03-192021-05-192021-07-192021-09-192021-11-192022-01-192022-03-192022-05-192022-07-192022-09-192022-11-192023-01-19河北黑龙江吉林山东黑龙江吉林河南玉米制淀粉利润亏损有修复迹象玉米制乙醇利润亏损其中河南亏损扩大019