【市场回顾】周四国债期货早盘高开，全天震荡上行，明显收涨。
　　【资金市场}公开市场共有3o亿逆回购到期，央行开展1090亿7天逆回购，当日净投放资金106o亿元。资金利率整体上行，银行间隔夜加权利率升至2.3%左右。税期叠加跨季缺口之下，流动性环境较之前更加紧张，而尽管央行超量续做MLF，但另一方面来说也在短期内证伪了降准的预期,并没有明显改善市场情绪。
　　【行情研判】瑞信事件进一步延续了市场的恐慌情绪，北京时间本周二瑞信官方发布年度报告成2022和2021财年程序中发现重大缺陷，隔日其最大股东沙特银行表示不会进一步注资保障流动性。在硅谷银行的余波尚未平息之际，瑞信作为全球系统重要性银行再生事端，进一步抬升市场的避险情绪，2年期美债收益率大幅回落。而国内方面，温和复苏以及强刺激政策的落空导致债券市场依旧是多头强势，国内外因素结合下，日内债市明显上涨。需要指出的是，今日瑞士央行已经公告将向瑞信提供500亿瑞士法郎的流动性支持，而受此消息影响瑞信股价也大幅反弹，随着恐慌情绪的回落，预计债市将重归震荡行情。
　　

研究报告全文：3010907106023MLF202220212500TFTS10043510097010082001801300567228530893016879545784-196817680510173161188239430301485合约走势150000000持仓变动10150101001010010090100000000100501008050000000100001007000000995010060-50000000990010050-1000000002023022220230223202302242023022520230226202302272023022820230301202303022023030320230304202303052023030620230307202303082023030920230310202303112023031220230313202303142023031520230316TFTTSRHS20230221TSTFT1000000000主力合约成交量主力合约持仓量200000000080000000080000000016000000006000000006000000001200000000400000000400000000800000000200000000200000000400000000000000000000000TSTFTTFTTSRHS2年期活跃券基差1020TS-TF跨品种价差1010040050100810150300401006030020101002010041005010010100200000010001000220028200005RHS价差右元TS2306CFETF2306CFE5年期活跃券基差2TS-T跨品种价差10111010303509100910053030080807100030250706069953020050599030150404230002220022RHS价差右元TS2306CFET2306CFE151810年期活跃券基差2TF-T跨品种价差1410201024161310151022121410201010111210181010051016091010001014080899507101206069901010220017220025RHS价差右元T2306CFETF2306CFE22502524268428272856-182-056-105-047-1251Y3Y5Y7Y右10Y右曲线形态29830002725288-052523278-10212682019-151725815-201Y3Y5Y7Y10Ybp右2023-03-162023-03-15中美利差bpbp美债10-2利差5003000040020000200001500030010000100002000005000100-10000000000-20000-5000-10000-15000中美利差RHS美债10Y国债10YDR001229718441825036-247601DR007220784894535-23800DR01422466616287-4780R00122493349000-5036380R0070000000000-654137R0142339401000-64003bp银存间资金价格走势资金日变动35302000292315002017100011051050000000DR001DR007DR014DR021DR1MDR2MDR3MDR001DR007DR014bp右2023-03-162023-03-15千元bp质押式回购成交量资金分层120000000000000750010000000000000055008000000000000035006000000000000015004000000000000020000000000000-50000000-25002022-12-142023-01-142023-02-142023-03-14DR001R001隔夜七天