华润电力(00836 HK):从逆风到顺风的转变会在不远的将来，首予“买入”
　　评级：买入6-18m   目标价: HK$19.54
　　分析员：邵俊樨   报告日期: 2023-03-16
　　报告摘要
　　我们首予华润电力（以下简称“公司”）“买入”评级，目标价19.54港元。我们预测2022-2024年EPS分别为1.31/ 2.27/2.69港元，体现了公司绿色转型所带来的高速成长。通过分部估值给予19.54港元目标价（火电：0.7倍2023年PB；可再生能源：9.0倍2023年PE）。
　　我们的不同观点：市场担心公司正处亏损的火电业务会影响其转型进度，同时增加新能源业务拆分压力，因此对公司成长前景持保守态度。我们则对公司成长前景较为乐观，我们认为公司火电业务有望反转并再度成为支持公司转型的现金牛，且更长远来看，公司火电资产亦是其在中国电力系统转型背景下获取新能源项目的竞争优势。此外，鉴于相关金融理论及经验证据，我们认为即使分拆新能源业务（许多投资者不乐于见到的情景），现有股东利益也不会受损。
　　不畏浮云遮望眼：2021年公司火电板块在煤价高企背景下首次录得亏损，令投资者担心公司进一步发展将受到拖累。但我们认为反转有望，鉴于1）长协煤履约率有望提升、进口煤价下跌、市场化改革加速推进，以及2）公司火电资产质地佳：机组先进、运营效率高、拥区位优势。在过去两年新能源项目竞标中，火电公司越来越多受优惠待遇，体现了火电资产的竞争优势。这在很大程度上是因为火电提供的发电侧灵活性对于中国电力系统转型是不可或缺的，尤其是在现阶段。
　　催化剂：新能源装机加速增长、点火价差好于预期、电力市场化改革加速。风险提示：项目开展延迟、原材料价格高于预期、出现极端气候。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus17March2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变ChinaItWontTakeLongFromHeadwindtoResources00836HKHK1954--Buy--NTailwindInitiateWithBuyPower从逆风到顺风的转变会在不远的将来首华润电力00836HKHK1954--买入--否予买入证TypeofReportTitleIssueDate告报告类型标题券宏观欧美银行危机蔓延心病还需降息医2023年3月16日研报MarketStrategyForeignCapitalofHongKongEquity-StickingtoReality16March2023究究报Appendices研ChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports告后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版券EquityResearchReport证HSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec22Mar23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover1920391-172111354848181恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE648247-118206242515342国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of6MorningResearchFocusHSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE381181-1413552830034364700科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatMar15PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJIndustryandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsChinaResourcesPower00836HKItWontTakeLongFromHeadwindtoTailwindInitiateWithBuyRatingBuy6-18mTPHK1954AnalystPeterShaoReportDate2023-03-16SummaryWeinitiatecoverageonChinaResourcesPowerCRPortheCompanywithaBuyratingandaTPofHK1954Weforecast2022-2024EPSofHK131HK227HK269respectivelyreflectingrapidgrowthdrivenbytheCompanysgreentransformationOurTPofHK1954isderivedviaasum-of-the-partsapproachthermal07x2023PBrenewables90x2023PEWherewedifferWebelievethemarketremainsconservativeaboutCRPsgrowthprospectinlightoftheCompanyscurrentlyloss-makingthermalexposurewhichcouldweighontheCompanystransformationandaddtothepressureforaspin-offofitsrenewablesbusinessHoweverweareratheroptimisticaboutCRPsgrowthprospectandwearguethatCRPsthermalbusinesscouldsoonturnintoacashcowagainsupportingtheCompanystransformationwhilefromalonger-termperspectivealsorepresentingacompetitiveedgeinsecuringnewrenewablesprojectsamidChinaspowersystemtransformationMeanwhilewearguethatevenintheeventofarenewablesspin-offtheworstcasedeemedbysomeinvestorsexistingshareholdersofCRPwouldnotbeworseoffinlightofbothrelevantfinancetheoryandempiricalevidenceLookingbeyondcurrentheadwindsCRPsthermalsegmentposteditsfirst-everlossin2021amidhighcoalpricescausingconcernsthatitwouldweighontheCompanysfurtherdevelopmentThatbeingsaidwebelieveaturnaroundisinsightgiven1weseeupsideinlong-termcoalcontractfulfilmentdecliningimportedcoalpricesandaccelerationinmarketliberalisationand2CRPsthermalassetsareofhighqualitywithadvancedgenerationfleethighoperationalefficiencyandregionaladvantagesTherehasalsobeengrowingpreferentialtreatmentofthermalIPPsduringrenewablesprojectauctionsinthepasttwoyearsimplyingacompetitiveedgebroughtbythermalassetsThisislargelybecausethegenerationflexibilityprovidedbythermalpowerisindispensabletoChinaspowersystemtransformationespeciallyatthecurrentstageCatalystsAcceleratedrenewablescapacitygrowthbetter-than-expecteddarkspreadsaccelerationinpowermarketliberalisationRisksDelaysinprojectroll-outhigher-than-expectedrawmaterialcostsextremeweatherconditionsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of6MorningResearchFocusTableFocusForeignCapitalofHongKongEquity-StickingtoRealityAnalystAndyHuangReportDate2023-03-16SummaryLastweektheUSFederalReserveFedChairmanshawkishspeechbeatmarketexpectationwhileSiliconValleyBankwentbankruptChinaCPIgrowthwaslessthanmarketexpectationandHongKongstocksfellIntermsofsectorperformanceliquidity-sensitivesectorsfellthemostlastweekwhiledefensivesectorsshowedresilienceHongKongstocksaremoreattractivethanA-sharestocksaftertheHongKongstockmarketfellinFebruaryThecurrentAHpremiumlevelincreasedto1456IntermsofcapitalflowsinceFebruary1asatMarch10theobviousdivergencebetweendomesticandforeigncapitalissouthboundcapitalinflowintotelecomservicespharmaceuticalsandconsumerservicessectorswhileforeigncapitalwasflowingoutofthesesectorsSinceFebruarytheconsensusbetweensouthboundcapitalandforeignintermediarycapitalisasfollowsbothtypesofcapitalflowedintopropertysemiconductorsandretailsectorswhilebankinginsurancenon-bankfinanceandautomobilescomponentssectorsexperiencedoutflowThedifferenceisthatsouthboundcapitalflowedintotelecomservicespharmaceuticalsandhealthcareequipmentwhileconsumerservicesandconsumerdurableswhileforeigncapitalactedoppositelyWithregardtovaluationcurrentPEvalueofsectorindexesforautomobilescomponentssoftwareandconsumerservicesareinhighlevelsoftheirhistoricalrangewhilethoseofbankingenergyandmaterialsareinlowlevelsoftheirhistoricalrangeAfterthefallintheHongKongequitymarketinFebruaryPEvalueoftheHangSengIndexfellfrom1115to962whichisabout05standarddeviationsbelowitshistoricalmeanWefoundthatsincethebeginningofFebruarysectorsthathaveseenthelargestdeclineintheirhistoricalrangeoftheirPEvaluearemediaconsumerandpropertyWeexpecttheHongKongstockmarkettobeoscillateintheshorttermwerecommendahighdividendstrategyandpurchasingliquidity-sensitivesectorsondips1Liquidity-sensitivesectorswithlowlevelsofcrowdingweexpectthattheliquidity-sensitivesectorssuchaspharmaceuticalssemiconductorsandhardwarewillreboundsignificantly2Sectorsthatarelesscrowdedandnearthebottomoftheirbusinesscyclesemiconductorshardwareandothersectorindiceshavelowvaluationcurrentlyandmaybeclosetothebottomofthebusinesscycle3SectorswithmoderatelevelsofcrowdingmaybenefitfromtherecoveryofdomesticdemandtherearesignsofrecoveryforthepropertysectorpolicysupportforChinasdomesticpropertymarketinthefutureisworththewaitWeremainoptimisticonrealestatebankingandmaterialssectorsRiskFactors1TheUSFederalReservemaytightenpolicymorethanmarketexpectation2uncertaintiesinChina-USrelationsChineseTranslation中文翻译行业和公司焦点TableFocuschiNil无Seethelastpagefordisclaimer3of6MorningResearchFocusTableLatestchi最新报告华润电力00836HK从逆风到顺风的转变会在不远的将来首予买入评级买入6-18m目标价HK1954分析员邵俊樨报告日期2023-03-16报告摘要我们首予华润电力以下简称公司买入评级目标价1954港元我们预测2022-2024年EPS分别为131227269港元体现了公司绿色转型所带来的高速成长通过分部估值给予1954港元目标价火电07倍2023年PB可再生能源90倍2023年PE我们的不同观点市场担心公司正处亏损的火电业务会影响其转型进度同时增加新能源业务拆分压力因此对公司成长前景持保守态度我们则对公司成长前景较为乐观我们认为公司火电业务有望反转并再度成为支持公司转型的现金牛且更长远来看公司火电资产亦是其在中国电力系统转型背景下获取新能源项目的竞争优势此外鉴于相关金融理论及经验证据我们认为即使分拆新能源业务许多投资者不乐于见到的情景现有股东利益也不会受损不畏浮云遮望眼2021年公司火电板块在煤价高企背景下首次录得亏损令投资者担心公司进一步发展将受到拖累但我们认为反转有望鉴于1长协煤履约率有望提升进口煤价下跌市场化改革加速推进以及2公司火电资产质地佳机组先进运营效率高拥区位优势在过去两年新能源项目竞标中火电公司越来越多受优惠待遇体现了火电资产的竞争优势这在很大程度上是因为火电提供的发电侧灵活性对于中国电力系统转型是不可或缺的尤其是在现阶段催化剂新能源装机加速增长点火价差好于预期电力市场化改革加速风险提示项目开展延迟原材料价格高于预期出现极端气候欧美银行危机蔓延心病还需降息医宏观组周浩孙英超报告日期2023-03-16报告摘要欧美银行业危机进一步蔓延瑞士央行SNB和该国监管机构在一份声明中表示瑞士信贷符合对系统重要性银行的资本和流动性要求如有必要瑞士央行将向该行提供流动性截至北京时间3月16日上午最新消息显示瑞信集团采取行动以增强流动性瑞信将向瑞士央行借款至多500亿瑞郎此外将回购至多30亿瑞郎的OPCOSR债务证券引发本轮银行业危机的导火索主要是通胀下的加息浪潮从美国的中小银行挤兑开始整个金融链条中相对脆弱的环节开始被一个个发现并被放大成为本轮危机的典型现象银行业本身是受益于加息的这对于欧洲银行业尤为如此由于长期以来处于负利率欧洲银行业的盈利状况一直不理想这也导致了很多欧洲银行从金融危机以来就采取了收缩战略从欧洲央行快速加息以来欧洲银行业的盈利状况出现了明显改善股价也迭创新高但近期的银行业爆雷事件频发则反映出市场在担忧加息情境下的整体宏观风险各国央行是否会转向似乎成了解救金融市场的核心矛盾但事实上金融监管机构需要考虑的是短期风险与中长期风险的匹配就短期风险而言监管机构会持续向市场提供流动性以避免金融风险的进一步蔓延以及向实体经济的传播但中期角度而言降息带来的通胀风险可能意味着即使躲过了眼前的危机下一轮危机也可能很快到来Seethelastpagefordisclaimer4of6MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of6MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKSENSETIME-W00020HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKAACTECHNOLOGIESHOLDINGS02018HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIFEINSURANCE-HSHARES02628HKTENCENT00700HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKCNOOC00883HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomSeethelastpagefordisclaimer6of6