我们的首选股为受惠于地产回暖、基建投资持续发力主题的公司，尤其是具备组装合成法及光伏建筑一体化工程能力的公司，包括中国建筑国际（03311 HK，目标价15.86港元，评级“买入”）及中国建筑兴业（00830 HK，目标价2.66港元，评级“买入”）。我们还推荐受益于房地产行业复苏、基础设施投资持续推进、一带一路沿线新机遇、国有企业改革和低估值等主题的公司；包括中国中铁（00390 HK，目标价7.60港元，评级“买入”）、中国铁建（01186 HK，目标价8.10港元，评级“买入”），及中国交建（01800 HK，目标价5.20港元，评级“收集”）。重申行业“跑赢大市”评级。
　　1）2023年1-2月全国固定资产投资额为人民币53,577亿元，同比增5.5%，较预期高1.0个百分点。2）1-2月基础设施投资增速为9.0%，其中水利、环境和公共设施管理业投资增速为9.8%，交通运输、仓储和邮政业投资增速为9.2%。3）1-2月房地产开发投资增速为-5.7%，跌幅好于预期的-8.5%。4）2月社会融资规模增量为人民币3.16万亿元，高于市场预期的人民币2.2万亿元。5）2月纳入中国工程机械工业协会统计样本的26家挖掘机制造企业共销售各类挖掘机21,450台，同比降12.4%，跌幅较1月的-33.1%有所收窄。
　　 2月份投资数据普遍超预期，预计2023年基建投资增速将维持高位，叠加海外新签合同快速回升，2023年建筑工程央企业绩大概率超预期。1）2023年政府工作报告提出今年国内生产总值增长目标5%左右，地方政府新增专项债额度为人民币3.8万亿元（2022年：人民币3.65万亿元)、赤字率3.0%（2022年：2.8%），财政支持有所加强。2）在外交支出增加的年份，建筑工程企业海外新签合同和营业额往往也大幅增长且增速高于外交支出增速。2023年将举行“一带一路”第三次峰会，全年外交支出人民币548亿元，增加人民币60亿元，增长12.2%。2023年国际工程订单将加速增长。3）国资委、财政部等央企主管部委协同中国证监会，将共同推动央企用好资本市场的融资优势和资产配置功能，促进央企估值水平合理回归，推动央企上市公司质量提高。
　　风险：1）政府基础设施支出可能低于预期；2）通胀可能超预期并导致政策收紧；3）世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNoteConstructionEngineeringSectorGaryWong黄家玮快讯建筑工程行业85225092616garywonggtjascomhk15March2023TableMainInfoJan-Feb2023ChinaFAIIncreased55YoY10pptsHigherThanExpectation快2023年1-2月全国固定资产投资同比增55较预期高10个百分点讯OurtoppicksarecompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoveryandcontinuedpushinFlashNoteinfrastructureinvestmentespeciallywithMiCModularIntegratedConstructionandBIPVBuilding-IntegratedPhotovoltaicsexposurewhichincludeChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKtargetpriceHK1586ratingBuyandChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HKtargetpriceHK266ratingBuyWealsorecommendcompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoverycontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentnewopportunitiesalongtheBeltandRoadbenefitfromstate-ownedenterprisereformandlowvaluationthisincludesChinaRailwayGroup00390HKtargetpriceHK760ratingBuyChinaRailwayConstruction01186HKtargetpriceHK810ratingBuyandChinaCommunicationsConstruction01800HKtargetpriceHK520ratingAccumulateReiterateOutperformratingforthesector1InJan-Feb2023ChinaFAIamountedtoRMB53577billionup55YoY10pptshigherthanexpectation2Jan-Febinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthwas90ofwhichirrigationenvironment证andpublicfacilitiesmanagementinvestmentgrowthratewas98whiletransportstorageand券post-investmentgrowthratewas923Jan-Febpropertydevelopmentinvestmentgrowthratewas-57研betterthantheexpected-85decline4TheincreaseinsocialfinancinginFebruaryreachedRMB316trillion究higherthanthemarketexpectationofRMB22trillion5The26excavatormanufacturersincludedinthestatisticssamplesoftheChinaConstructionMachineryAssociationsoldatotalof21450excavatorsofvarioustypesinResearchReport报Februaryadecreaseof124YoYnarrowingfromthe331YoYdeclineinJanuary告EquityTheinvestmentdatainFebruarygenerallyexceededexpectationsWeexpectthatthegrowthrateofinfrastructureinvestmentin2023willremainhighCoupledwiththerapidrecoveryofnewoverseascontractstheoperationresultsofcentralconstructionengineeringSOEsin2023islikelytoexceed证券研究报告expectations1The2023governmentworkreportproposedtheGDPgrowthtargettobearound5thisyearthelocalgovernmentsnewspecialdebtamountwillbeRMB38trillion2022RMB365trillionandthedeficitratewillbe30202228financialsupporthasbeenstrengthened2IntheyearswhendiplomaticTexpendituresincreasedoverseasnewcontractsandrevenuesofconstructionengineeringcompaniestendedtoincreasesignificantlyandthegrowthrateswerehigherthanthatofdiplomaticexpendituresIn2023thethirdasummitoftheBeltandRoadwillbeheldandtheannualdiplomaticexpenditureswillbeRMB548billionanb建increaseofRMB6billionup122In2023theincreaseofnewinternationalengineeringorderswillbe筑laccelerated3TheState-ownedAssetsSupervisionandAdministrationCommissiontheMinistryofFinance工eandothercompetentministriesandcommissionsofcentralenterpriseswillcooperatewiththeChinaSecurities程RegulatoryCommissiontojointlypromotecentralenterprisestomakegooduseofthefinancingadvantages行andassetallocationfunctionsofthecapitalmarketpromotethereasonablereturnofcentralenterprisesL业valuationlevelsandpromotetheimprovementinthequalityofcentralenterpriselistedcompanieseRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2inflationcouldexceedfexpectationsandmaycausepolicytightening3worldwidepandemicsituationmightseefluctuationtConstructionSectorEngineeringMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3SeethelastpagTable1SummaryableFAIofSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaofStatisticsofBureauSourceNationalandYoYFigure1ChinaofStatisticsofBureauSourceNationalIrrigationEnvironmentPublicManagementFacilitiesTransportStorageandPostInvestmentInfrastructureDevelopmentPropertyTertiaryIndustryIndustrySecondaryIndustryPrimaryFAIChinaCategories-30-20-101020304050e0fo风险高中国证监会将共同推动央企用好资本市场的融资优势和资产配置功能促进央企估值水平合理回归推动央企上市公司质量提民币企业概率超预期21亿元开发投资增速为速1及中国交建司包括中国中铁入我们还推荐受益于房地产行业复苏基础设施投资持续推进一带一路沿线新机遇国有企业改革和低估值等主题的公括中国建筑国际我们的首选股为受惠于地产回暖基建投资持续发力主题的公司尤其是具备组装合成法及光伏建筑一体化工程能力的公司包rpdisclaimerPagePagedisclaimer月的月份投资数据普遍超预期预计roperty2022为PropertyFAIProperty2020-032023海外新签合同和营业额往往也大幅增长且增速高于外交支出增速54890-512020-05331年政府基础设施支出可能低于预期年亿元2人民币2020-07其中水利环境和公共设施管理业投资增速为d月纳入中国工程机械工业协会统计样本的1evelopmentFAIg-有所收窄01800HK122020-09rowthofrowth月全国固定资产投资额为人民币-增加5720232020-1103311HK0331136500390HK2021-02人民币ManufacturingFAIManufacturing跌幅年政府工作报告提出今年国目标价2021-04s万亿itatisticstatisticsnfrastructure2021-06目标价60好元目标价2021-08于预期的亿赤字率520元2021-1020232021-12Jan1586港元评级收集增长760P-年基建投资增速将维持高位852022-03-30mFeb12222022-05港元评级InfrastructureFAIInfrastructure港元评级买入及中国建筑兴业anufacturing通胀可能超预期并导致政策收紧2022-074535772020222022-09内2232023生产总值增长目标262022-11月社会融资规模增量为年亿元同比增家挖掘机制造企业共销售各类挖掘机买入中国铁建2021-02年国际工程订单9828SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaofStatisticsofBureauSourceNationalFAIYoY2Figure-30-20-10重申行业跑赢大市评级1020304050交通运输仓储和邮政业投资增速为0财政支持有所加强InvestmentRMB000Investment叠552020-0320235加海外新签合同快速回升IrrigationEnvironmentPublicFacilitiesManagementFacilitiesPublicEnvironmentIrrigationPostandStorageTransportWaterandGasHeatofElectricitySupplyandProduction2020-05将加速左右地方政府新增专项债额度为较预期高TablePageHeader年将举行2020-07人民币01186HKg2020-09增3otofrowth世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动长2020-113160083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