我们维持“买入”的投资评级并上调目标价至29.20港元。我们预测2023-2025财年的每股盈利为人民币2.058元/ 2.390元/ 2.783元。考虑未来业绩增速和历史估值水平，我们给予12.5倍2023年市盈率，对应目标价29.20港元，维持投资评级为“买入”。
　　我们预计2023年公司电信网络侧业务将稳步增长。公司2022财年业绩符合我们预期。2023年中国5G基站建设量将与2022年持平，而目前千兆光网络渗透率不足20%，我们预计千兆光网络建设将快速爬升，将为公司光网络设备业务提供增长机会。
　　我们预计第二曲线业务的发展将超过市场预期。在新基建、东数西算、双碳等大背景下，公司快速拓展服务器及存储、5G行业应用、终端、数字能源、汽车电子等“第二曲线”布局，通过将自身的ICT技术能力外延，强化与行业头部企业合作。作为电信运营商新的投资重点和数字中国建设的重要基础设施，算力网络投资今年有望继续保持强劲增长。因此，我们预计2023年对电信运营商的服务器和存储出货量仍将强劲。
　　催化剂：第二曲线业务发展快于预期；千兆光网建设提速。
　　风险提示：中美贸易摩擦风险；政企客户需求弱于预期。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleGinYu余劲同CompanyReportZTE00763HK究8675523976686EquityResearch公司报告中兴通讯00763HKginyugtjascomhk14March2023BusinessesTableSummaryintheSecondCurvetoGrowRapidlyBuy第二曲线业务快速成长买入WemaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyandraiseTPtoHK2920TableRank公WeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB2058RMB2390RMB2783RatingBuyMaintainedrespectivelyConsideringfutureperformancegrowthrateandhistorical司valuationlevelwegivea125x2023PERcorrespondingtoTPofHK2920评级买入维持报andmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuy告WeexpecttheCompanysbusinessinthetelecomnetworksidetogrowCompanyReportTablePricesteadilyin2023TheCompanysFY22resultswereinlinewithour6-18mTP目标价HK2920HK2350expectations5GbasestationconstructionvolumeinChinain2023willbesimilartothatin2022AtpresentthepenetrationrateofgigabitopticalShareprice股价HK24500networksislessthan20andweexpecttheconstructionofgigabitopticalnetworkstoclimbrapidlywhichwillprovidegrowthopportunitiesfortheCompanysbusinessinopticalnetworkequipment告Stockperformance证Weexpectdevelopmentofbusinessesinthesecondcurvetoexceed股价表现报marketexpectationsUnderthebackgroundofnewinfrastructuretheTableQuotePic600ofreturnReport券EasternDataandWesternComputinginitiativeaswellascarbonpeaking500究研andcarbonneutralitytheCompanyisquicklydevelopingitssecondcurve400研layoutinserversandstorage5Gindustryapplicationsterminalsdigital300究energyautomotiveelectronicsetcandstrengthencooperationwithleading200券100报companiesinvariousindustriesbyextendingitsownICTtechnologycapabilitiesAsnewfocusoninvestmentsbytelecomoperatorsanda00告证significantinfrastructurefortheconstructionofdigitalChinaistakingplace100EquityResearchinvestmentincomputingpowernetworksisexpectedtocontinuetogrow200300stronglythisyearThusweexpectshipmentsofserversandstoragein2023400totelecomoperatorstostillbestrongMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23TabCatalystsFaster-than-expectedgrowthwithinitsdifferentbusinessareasinHSIIndexZTEGroupleIthesecondcurveaccelerationofgigabitopticalnetworkRiskwarningRiskofSino-UStradefrictionweaker-than-expecteddemandnfo1ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Yfromgovernmentandcorporatecustomers股价变动个月个月年131我们维持买入的投资评级并上调目标价至2920港元我们预测2023-2025财年的每Abs238313660绝对变动通股盈利为人民币2058元2390元2783元考虑未来业绩增速和历史估值水平我们ReltoHSIndex324332672信给予125倍2023年市盈率对应目标价2920港元维持投资评级为买入相对恒指变动AvgSharepriceHK221197170行我们预计2023年公司电信网络侧业务将稳步增长公司2022财年业绩符合我们预期平均股价港元业2023年中国5G基站建设量将与2022年持平而目前千兆光网络渗透率不足20我们SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational预计千兆光网络建设将快速爬升将为公司光网络设备业务提供增长机会我们预计第二曲线业务的发展将超过市场预期在新基建东数西算双碳等大背景下公司快速拓展服务器及存储5G行业应用终端数字能源汽车电子等第二曲线TelecommunicationsSector布局通过将自身的ICT技术能力外延强化与行业头部企业合作作为电信运营商新的投资重点和数字中国建设的重要基础设施算力网络投资今年有望继续保持强劲增长因此我们预计2023年对电信运营商的服务器和存储出货量仍将强劲催化剂第二曲线业务发展快于预期千兆光网建设提速Tab风险提示中美贸易摩擦风险政企客户需求弱于预期TableleIYearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率nfo21231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB2021A1145226813147059812810882170300161442022A122954808017101631231238217040019147中2023F13555097452058204971422814051426155兴2024F149646113212390161831636512059830156通2025F167603131832783164731885311069634158讯TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m47361Majorshareholder大股东Zhongxingxin202MarketcapHKm市值HKm1089303Freefloat自由流通比率798ZTE00763HK3monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00056248FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金6652WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK2490012700FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元325SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6TablePageHeaderZTE00763HKWemaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyandraiseTPtoHK2920BasedonthenewforecastofoperatorcapitalexpenditureweforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB2058RMB2390RMB27831respectivelyraMthConsideringgiRefuturelbaTperformancegrowthrateandhistoricalvaluationlevelwegive125x2023PERcorrespondingtoTPofHK2920andmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyTheTPrepresents125x107x92x2023-2025PERZTEsFY22resultswereinlinewithourexpectationsAccordingtoPRCAccountingStandardsforBusinessEnterprisesASBEsoperatingrevenueinFY22increasedby74yoytoRMB122954millionThegrossprofitmarginoftheCompanyincreasedby20pptyoyto372whilegrossprofitincreasedby133yoyRDexpensesincreasedby149yoywhileRD14March2023expensestototalrevenueincreasedby12pptyoyto176WebelievethatstrongRDinvestmentwillensuretheCompanysleading-edgeadvantageinICTtechnologyandtheequipmentmarketShareholdersnetprofitincreasedby186yoywhileshareholdersnetprofitafterextraordinaryitemsincreasedby865yoytoRMB6167millionCarriersnetworkbusinessgovernmentandcorporatebusinessconsumerbusinessincreasedby5711899respectivelyWeexpecttheCompanysbusinessinthetelecomnetworksidetogrowsteadilyin2023Chinahasaccumulated231million5Gbasestationsuptotheendof2022AccordingtotheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyMIIT5GbasestationconstructionvolumeinChinain2023willbeabout06millionwhichissimilartothatin2022Asattheendof2022thenumberof10GPONportscapableofGB-gradenetworkservicingreached1523millionincreasedby737millionYTDAtpresentthepenetrationrateofgigabitopticalnetworksislessthan20andweexpectthe2rconstructionaMthgofigigabitRelopticalbaTnetworkstoclimbrapidlywhichwillprovidegrowthopportunitiesfortheCompanysbusinessinopticalnetworkequipmentThusweexpectthecarriersnetworkbusinesstostillachievesteadygrowthin2023WeexpectdevelopmentofZTEsdifferentbusinessareasinthesecondcurvetoexceedmarketexpectationsUnderthebackgroundofnewinfrastructuretheEasternDataandWesternComputinginitiativeaswellascarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitytheCompanyisquicklydevelopingitssecondcurvelayoutinserversandstorage5GindustryapplicationsterminalsdigitalenergyautomotiveelectronicsetcandstrengtheningcooperationwithleadingcompaniesinvariousindustriesbyextendingitsownICTtechnologycapabilitiestoempowertransformationandupgradingofdigitalintelligenceinverticalindustriesIn2022revenuefromsecondcurvebusinessincreasedbyover40yoyamongwhichrevenuefromserversandstorageincreasedbyabout80yoytonearlyRMB10billionAtpresentasanewfocusforinvestmentbytelecomoperatorsandasignificantinfrastructurefortheconstructionofdigitalChinainvestmentincomputingpowernetworksisexpectedtocontinuetogrowstronglythisyearChinaUnicomhasannouncedtoincreaseitscapitalexpenditureoncomputingpowernetworksby20yoyin2023DuetostrongcomputingpowerCAPEXoftelecomoperatorsweexpectshipmentsofserversandstoragein2023to00763HKtelecomoperatorstostillbestrongWeexpectdevelopmentwithinitsdifferentbusinessareasinthesecondcurvetoexceedmarketexpectations中兴通讯CatalystFaster-than-expectedgrowthwithinitsdifferentbusinessareasinthesecondcurveaccelerationofgigabitopticalZTEnetworkRiskwarningRiskofSino-UStradefrictionweaker-than-expecteddemandfromgovernmentandcorporatecustomersReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of6TablePageHeaderZTE00763HKFigure-1DevelopmentofmobilebasestationsFigure-2Numberofgigabitbroadbandusers1raMthgiRelbaTMillionNumberofmobilebasestationsMillionNetadditioninnumberofmobilebasestations100120091890871103581499680760100093170684170657611800605595056674606195014March2023409600403040020174200100900870600480650000201720182019202020212022SourceMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyGuotaiJunanSourceMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyGuotaiJunanInternationalInternationalFigure-3ZTEsPEgraphFigure-4ZTEsPBgraph2raMthgiRelbaT25325201SD1SD215AverageAverage1510-1SD-1SD15050000763HKSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational中兴通讯ZTEReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of6TablePageHeaderZTE00763HKTable-1PeerscomparisonMarketCapPERPBR1raMROEthgDYiReEVEBITDAlbaTCompanyTickerCurrencyPriceHKDMil23F24F25F23F24F25F23F23F23FHKListedCompaniesZteCorp-H00763HKHKD24500170920105939115131215419105ChinaTowerCorpLtd-H00788HKHKD09401619281621341030707074740162YangtzeOpticalFibreAnd-H06869HKHKD152802229175681140908071144175CombaTelecomSystemsHoldin02342HKHKD15103979168159na1010na600916814March2023XiaomiCorp-ClassB01810HKHKD115402769402261801561615127200226LenovoGroupLtd00992HKHKD7470885356866621815133165268ChinaCommunicationsServi-H00552HKHKD3810252116561610505na866165AsiainfoTechnologiesLtd01675HKHKD15160140501211069516151314028121SimpleAverage1241089712111112431124WeightedAverage15512911314121111623155PRCListedCompaniesZteCorp-A000063CHCNY34010170920166146130242119149141662raMthgiRelbaTFiberhomeTelecomTechCo-A600498CHCNY1741023291425332na1614nana08425YangtzeOpticalFibreAnd-A601869CHCNY3758022291196170na2421na12215196JiangsuZhongtianTechnolo-A600522CHCNY152505881311698na1514na14118116GuangzhouHaigeCommunicat-A002465CHCNY1052027772253206na2120na8418253HengtongOptic-ElectricCo-A600487CHCNY1464039636128105na14121110810128ZhongjiInnolightCoLtd-A300308CHCNY347603098719916813220181610708199EoptolinkTechnologyIncL-A300502CHCNY3164017818169140na2823na17508169AccelinkTechnologiesCo-A002281CHCNY231401800723020932624212010708230FujianStar-NetCommunicat-A002396CHCNY2371015726153127na2219na15406153SimpleAverage17717019621191612711177WeightedAverage16615414621191713413166JapanListedCompaniesNecCorp6701JPJPY504000078582150118103090808582215000763HKFujitsuLimited6702JPJPY1820500021795013912812021191715413139SimpleAverage14412311115141310618144中兴通讯WeightedAverage14212611518161512916142ZTETaiwanListedCompaniesAcerInc2353TTTWD2570019983154151na1111na7348154AsustekComputerInc2357TTTWD26600050033143103na0909na5653143naSimpleAverage149127DIV01010DIV06550149WeightedAverage146117DIV01009DIV06152146USandEuropeListedCompaniesNokiaOyjNOKIAFHEUR4384207251101969111101010630101EricssonLm-BShsERICBSSSEK589001459579882731412121624998MotorolaSolutionsIncMSIUSUSD261150342588233211186586286246359513233CiscoSystemsIncCSCOUSUSD48410155522012912011445383336132129JuniperNetworksIncJNPRUSUSD306907798413612112021191816228136SimpleAverage119126117135736487730119ReportWeightedAverage111129120118706079530111OverallAverage1421311303925262602889CompanyOverallWeightedAverage1441311243625262472793SourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of6TablePageHeaderZTE00763HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalRevenue114522122954135550149646167603Long-termequityinvestments16851754175417541754Fixedassets114371291311894108959842Costofsales74160772288392992450103359Constructioninprogress1373964916870827Grossprofit4036245727516205719664244Intangibleassets80957342734273427342Goodwill0000014March2023Taxesandsurcharges787951108411971341Othernon-currentassets1830320107200962008520074Sellinganddistributioncosts87339173101661122312570TotalNon-currentAssets4089243080420014094539837Administrativeexpenses54455333610068847542RDcosts1880421602237212544028493CashCashEquivalents3907147072420175005358931Financecosts963163108613011180Billreceivables00482853305969Otherincome19411893203322452514Tradereceivables1750917751631336969878062Investmentincome156410878138981006Otherreceivables13541347743820918Gainsfromchangesinfairvalues109911427910Inventories3631745235172461899721238AssetImpairmentlosses15211190000Othercurrentassets3362126469281243016732772Creditimpairmentlosses269369000TotalCurrentAssets127871137874156090175064197891Lossesgainsfromassetdisposal23211000TotalAssets1687631809541980912160092377292raMthgiRelbaTOperatingProfit86768795123171430316648Shorttermloans89479962996299629962Non-operatingincomeexpenses17743404040Billspayables1155710630310423419438229ProfitBeforeTax84998752122771426316608Tradepayables2171719075321923546039645IncomeTax1463960221025672989Otherpayables35052890134314791654ProfitAfterTax70367792100671169513619Othercurrentliabilities3295835867119541282113928Non-controllingInterest223289322374436TotalCurrentLiabilities78685784248649493917103418ShareholdersProfitLoss6813808097451132113183BasicEPS14701710205823902783Longtermloans2990835126351263512635126Othernon-currentliabilities68827861786178617861TotalNon-currentLiabilities3679142987429874298742987TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalLiabilities115476121410129481136903146405Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022F2023F2024F2025FShareholdersProfit6813808097451132113183Sharecapital47314736473647364736Non-controllingInterest223289322374436Capitalreserves2536025893258932589325893Non-cashexpenses63785946113611451147Othercomprehensiveincome22872353235323532353Non-operatingincome1305158511501064955Otherreserves236783036539110492316101400763HKChangeinworkingcapital361577442447535154448TotalShareholdersEquity5148258641673867750789290CashfromOperatingActivities157247578121221038911273MinorityInterest1806902122415982034TotalEquity5328859543686107910691324中兴通讯CAPEX546649289012070ZTEInvestment554825567910TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosOthers42110808209071016CashfromInvestingActivities1059212917237789362021A2022A2023F2024F2025FGrossmargin352372381382383Equityfinancing538171000Netmargin5966727679Debtfinancing53095406000ROA4045495255Others30684122293131313331ROE144147155156158CashfromFinancingActivities27791455293131313331Currentratiox1618181919Quickratiox1111141515NetChangesinCash791077411433080368878Liablitiestoassetratio684671654634616CashatBegofYear3140339071563464201750053FXchange242260000CashatEndofYear3907147072420175005358931SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of6TablePageHeaderZTE00763HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to514March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport00763HK6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies中兴通讯DISCLAIMERZTEThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedReport27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of6