事件描述：乐享集团（“公司”）公布了其关于2022年的盈利预警，预期其2022年全年收入不低于3,700百万港元，其中国内业务将录得收入不低于约610百万港元及海外业务将录得收入不低于3,090百万港元。而净利润方面，公司预期其2022年归股东净亏损在322.2百万港元至356.1百万港元之间。
　　观点评论：乐享集团2022年整体收入基本符合我们之前的预期（3,724百万港元），超出彭博一致预期7.4%左右。其中，海外电商业务收入是公司整体收入超市场预期的主要原因。公司的海外电商业务是2021年第四季度才开展的业务，短短一年间其业务年GMV已突破30亿港元，进一步印证了我们对公司的核心优势来自其对于流量的核心算法的观点，以及对其精准配对长尾流量和长尾市场的能力的认可。然而，公司的利润率差于我们的预期，出现了净亏损。我们认为这主要是来自其海外业务的扩张所产生的市场补贴费用和拓展销售渠道的支出高于预期，以及国内市场营销业务的毛利率因疫情扰动而低于早前的平均水平。目前，海外电商业务处于快速扩张阶段，在渗透海外市场前期需要投入较高拓展和研发的相关费用，因此整个海外业务处于亏损状态。展望2023年，海外业务的利润率有望逐步提升。我们预计该业务在2025年底之前能实现盈利。而国内业务方面，2022年的不尽人意表现主要归咎于疫情对于国内商业活动的巨大扰动以及游戏行业的严监管政策。从目前来看，2022年影响国内业务的两大负面因素已经基本扫清。中国的疫情防控已经全面放开，对于中国的品牌主广告商而言，商业活动的逐步恢复也意味着其市场营销上的预算相应逐步恢复。另一方面，国内游戏版号发放恢复常态化管理，对于公司的互动娱乐及数字产品的营销业务而言也出现显著边际改善。
　　投资建议：海外业务的超预期表现再一次显露出乐享集团作为一家互联网科技公司的创新能力以及其算法的优势。我们预期疫情防控以及游戏行业的政策边际改善会显著改善公司2023年国内营销业务的表现。与此同时，公司目前也保持其一贯的创新性。乐享集团的战略合作伙伴保利乐享文娱科技（乐享子公司乐享文化科技持有10%股份）旗下的区块链信息服务名称出现在2023年2月21日国家互联网信息办公室公布的关于第十一批境内区块链信息服务备案编号公告当中。保利乐享文娱科技于2月28日宣布成为百度文心一言（百度自主研发的类ChatGPT人工智能内容生成应用）的首批生态合作伙伴。我们预计保利乐享文娱科技未来将应用百度领先的智能对话技术于其数字原生内容、数字艺术以及结合传统线下文化场景应用。乐享集团于2022年3月认购了保利乐享文娱科技的注册股份，开始与文化央企共同开拓影视文娱及互联网科技相结合的数字化新业务机会。我们认为乐享集团在视频内容的算法分析能力结合其扎实的互联网行业积累，有望在文化内容创造和其电商业务以及市场营销业务上产生新的协同和创新。长期来看，我们对乐享集团未来业务的创新性以及盈利性充满信心。我们目前维持“买入”的投资评级，将会在下份公司报告中调整盈利预测以及目标价。
　　风险提示：海外业务可能会承受比预期高的成本和支出，导致亏损的周期比预期长；中国的游戏行业恢复可能不及预期，长尾市场的游戏发行数量可能低于预期，导致公司的互动娱乐营销业务恢复不及预期。

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteJoySpreader06988HKTeddyLin林荣叶EquityResearch8675523976692快讯乐享集团06988HKrongyelingtjascomhk14March2023RevenueTableSummaryExceededExpectationsbutProfitabilityUnderShort-TermPressureInnovationHoldsPromise营收超预期但盈利性短期承压创新性值得期待快讯WhathappenedJoySpreadertheCompanyannouncedaprofitalertfor2022expectingitsfull-yearrevenuetobenolessthanHK3700mnwithdomesticbusinessrecordingrevenueofnolessthanFlashNoteapproximatelyHK610mnandoverseasbusinessrecordingrevenueofnolessthanHK3090mnAsfornetprofittheCompanyexpectsitsnetlossattributabletoshareholderstobebetweenHK3222mnandHK3561mnin2022CommentsandviewsJoySpreadersoverallrevenuein2022basicallymetourforecastofHK3724mnandexceededBloombergsconsensusbyabout74TheCompanysoversease-commercebusinessrevenueisthekeyreasonwhyoverallrevenueexceededmarketexpectationsTheoversease-commercebusinessoftheCompanywaslaunchedinthefourthquarterof2021anditsannualGMVexceededHK3bninjustoneyearfurtherconfirmingourpreviousviewthattheCompanyscoreadvantagescomefromitscorealgorithmfor证internetusertrafficaswellasitsabilitytoaccuratelymatchlong-tailusertrafficandnichemarketsHowevertheCompanysprofitmarginwaslowerthanourexpectationsresultinginanetlossWebelievethisismainlydueto券themarketsubsidycostsgeneratedbytheexpansionofitsoverseasbusinessandthehigher-than-expected研expensesforexpandingsaleschannelsaswellasthelowergrossprofitmarginofitsdomesticmarketing告究businessduetoimpactfromtheCovid-19pandemicAtpresenttheoversease-commercebusinessisina报报stageofrapidexpansionanditrequireshighlevelsofinvestmentinRDandmarketingtopenetrateinto告究overseasmarketsthustheentireoverseasbusinessiscurrentlyloss-makingLookingaheadto2023theprofitEquityResearchReportmarginoftheoverseasbusinessisexpectedtograduallyimproveWeexpectthisbusinesstoachieve研Tableprofitabilitybytheendof2025Asforthedomesticbusinessthedisappointingperformancein2022ismainly券Info1attributedtothehugeimpactfromthepandemicondomesticbusinessactivityandthestrictregulatorypoliciesin证ChinasgameindustryCurrentlythetwomajornegativefactorsaffectingdomesticbusinessin2022havebeenbasicallyclearedChinaspandemicpreventionandcontrolmeasureshavebeenfullyrelaxedandforChinese传brandadvertisersthegradualrecoveryofbusinessactivityalsomeansthattheirmarketingbudgetswill播graduallyrecoveraccordinglyOntheotherhandtheissuanceofgamecopyrightsinChinahasreturnedto文化normalwhichhassignificantlyimprovedprospectsfortheCompanysmarketingbusinessforinteractive行entertainmentandotherdigitalproducts业InvestmentsuggestionTheexceptionalperformanceofoverseasbusinessonceagaindemonstratesJoyMediaCultureSectorSpreadersinnovativeabilityasaninternettechnologycompanyandtheadvantagesofitsalgorithmsWeexpectthattheimprovementinpandemicpreventionandcontrolmeasuresandtherelaxationofpolicyinthegameindustrywillsignificantlyimprovetheCompanysdomesticmarketingbusinessperformancein2023AtthesametimetheCompanyismaintainingitsinnovationJoySpreadersstrategicpartnerPolyJoySpreaderTableDigi-EntertainmentJoySpreaderssubsidiaryLexiangCultureTechnologyholdsa10sharehasitsInfo2blockchaininformationservicenameincludedintheannouncementoftheeleventhbatchofdomesticblockchaininformationservicerecordnumberspublishedbytheNationalInternetInformationOfficeonFebruary212023OnFebruary28PolyJoySpreaderDigi-Entertainmentannouncedthatithadbecomethefirstbatchof乐ecologicalpartnersofBaiduErnieBotBaidusself-developedChatGPT-styleAIcontentgenerationapplication享集WeexpectthatinthefuturePolyJoySpreaderDigi-EntertainmentwillapplyBaidusleadingintelligentdialogue团technologytoitsdigitalnativecontentdigitalartandtraditionalofflineculturalsceneapplicationsInMarch2022JoySpreadersubscribedforPolyJoySpreaderDigi-Entertainmentsregisteredsharecapitalandbegantocollaboratewiththecentralstate-ownedculturalenterprisestoexpandnewdigitalbusinessopportunitiesJoySpreader06988HKJoy06988SpreadercombiningfilmandtelevisionentertainmentwithinternettechnologyWebelievethatJoySpreadersalgorithmicSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3TablePageHeaderJoySpreader06988HKanalysiscapabilitiesforvideocontentcombinedwithitssolidaccumulationintheinternetindustryareexpectedtogeneratenewsynergiesandinnovationsinculturalcontentcreatione-commerceandmarketingbusinesses1raMthgiRelbaTInthelongrunweareconfidentinJoySpreadersfuturebusinessinnovationandprofitabilityWecurrentlymaintainaBuyinvestmentratingandwilladjustprofitforecastsandtargetpricesinthenextCompanyReportRiskwarningOverseasbusinessmaybearhighercostsandexpensesthanexpectedleadingtoalongerperiodoflossesthanexpectedtherecoveryofChinasgameindustrymaybeslowerthanexpectedandthenumberofgamecopyrightsreleasedinthenichemarketmaybelowerthanexpectedresultinginslower-than-expectedrecoveryoftheCompanysinteractiveentertainmentmarketingbusinesses14March2023事件描述乐享集团公司公布了其关于2022年的盈利预警预期其2022年全年收入不低于3700百万港元其中国内业务将录得收入不低于约610百万港元及海外业务将录得收入不低于3090百万港元而净利润方面公司预期其2022年归股东净亏损在3222百万港元至3561百万港元之间观点评论乐享集团2022年整体收入基本符合我们之前的预期3724百万港元超出彭博一致预期74左右其中海外电商业务收入是公司整体收入超市场预期的主要原因公司的海外电商业务是2021年第四季度才开展的业务短短一年间其业务年GMV已突破30亿港元进一步印证了我们对公司的核心优势来自其对于流量的核心算法的观点以及对其精准配对长尾流量和长尾市场的能力的认可然而公司的利润率差于我们的预期出现了净亏损我们认为这主要是来自其海外业务的扩张2raMthgiRelbaT所产生的市场补贴费用和拓展销售渠道的支出高于预期以及国内市场营销业务的毛利率因疫情扰动而低于早前的平均水平目前海外电商业务处于快速扩张阶段在渗透海外市场前期需要投入较高拓展和研发的相关费用因此整个海外业务处于亏损状态展望2023年海外业务的利润率有望逐步提升我们预计该业务在2025年底之前能实现盈利而国内业务方面2022年的不尽人意表现主要归咎于疫情对于国内商业活动的巨大扰动以及游戏行业的严监管政策从目前来看2022年影响国内业务的两大负面因素已经基本扫清中国的疫情防控已经全面放开对于中国的品牌主广告商而言商业活动的逐步恢复也意味着其市场营销上的预算相应逐步恢复另一方面国内游戏版号发放恢复常态化管理对于公司的互动娱乐及数字产品的营销业务而言也出现显著边际改善投资建议海外业务的超预期表现再一次显露出乐享集团作为一家互联网科技公司的创新能力以及其算法的优势我们预期疫情防控以及游戏行业的政策边际改善会显著改善公司年国内营销业务的表现与此同时公司目前也保持其一贯的创新性2023乐享集团的战略合作伙伴保利乐享文娱科技乐享子公司乐享文化科技持有10股份旗下的区块链信息服务名称出现在202306988HK年2月21日国家互联网信息办公室公布的关于第十一批境内区块链信息服务备案编号公告当中保利乐享文娱科技于2月28日宣布成为百度文心一言百度自主研发的类ChatGPT人工智能内容生成应用的首批生态合作伙伴我们预计保利乐享文娱科技未来将应用百度领先的智能对话技术于其数字原生内容数字艺术以及结合传统线下文化场景应用乐享集团于年20223乐享集团月认购了保利乐享文娱科技的注册股份开始与文化央企共同开拓影视文娱及互联网科技相结合的数字化新业务机会我们认为乐享集团在视频内容的算法分析能力结合其扎实的互联网行业积累有望在文化内容创造和其电商业务以及市场营销业务上产生新的协同和创新长期来看我们对乐享集团未来业务的创新性以及盈利性充满信心我们目前维持买入的投资评级将会在JoySpreader下份公司报告中调整盈利预测以及目标价风险提示海外业务可能会承受比预期高的成本和支出导致亏损的周期比预期长中国的游戏行业恢复可能不及预期长尾市场的游戏发行数量可能低于预期导致公司的互动娱乐营销业务恢复不及预期FlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of3TablePageHeaderJoySpreader06988HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisneutral14March2023Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport06988HK4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearch乐享集团ReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesJoySpreaderDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of3