销量正在缓慢复苏，自主品牌渗透率持续提升。行业分化加剧，自主转型提速。“自主崛起+出口高增”将是常态。自主品牌进一步抢占市场份额。2月份，自主品牌/合资品牌的新能源车渗透率分别为52.9%/ 4.2%。汽车板块机会仍在整车，个别零部件企业也将受益。
　　二月新能源汽车渗透率再次突破30%，但行业需求复苏将有所推迟。乘联会2月新能源汽车零售同比增60.9%，渗透率为31.6%。2月增程式电动车批发销量为2.93万辆，同比大增190.0%，占插混总量的20.0%。增程式渗透率进一步提升可期。近期湖北省多家传统燃油车企推出购车优惠活动，主要形式为厂家补贴和政府补贴。叠加今年以来乘用车普遍降价，使消费者形成降价预期，从而直接影响了消费者的购买情绪。即使在2月新能源汽车销量复苏较为强劲之际，我们预测行业需求复苏时点也将会有所推迟。
　　两会提“扩大消费+绿色发展”指引，新能源汽车政策仍可期。上周两会政府工作报告对汽车行业提出“扩大消费+绿色发展”的指导方向。随着国内汽车保有量不断上升，下沉市场有望成为新能源汽车消费增长的另一动力。政策端方面，预计全年将持续推动新能源汽车下乡、完善充电设施，进而推动销量改善。我们预计插混将成为下沉市场消费主力。我们相信短期还会有更多汽车行业扶持政策出台。
　　抢占燃油车市场份额仍在延续，机会仍在整车。整车板块，我们推荐吉利汽车（00175 HK）、长城汽车-H（02333 HK）和理想汽车-W（02015 HK）；零部件板块，我们推荐耐世特（01316 HK）。
　　风险提示：1）行业竞争加剧，价格战超预期；2）乘用车销量不及预期。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportAutomobilesSectorIvanWu吴凱翔行业报告汽车行业85225092649ivanwugtjascomhk15March2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateNEVPenetrationRateExceeded30in行FebSelf-OwnedBrandsWillFurtherSeizeMarketShare双周报二月新能源汽车渗透率再次突破30自主品牌将进一步抢占市场份额业Salesareslowlyrecoveringandpenetrationrateofself-ownedbrands报continuestoriseIndustrydifferentiationisintensifyingandself-ownedbrandRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformtransformationsareacceleratingSelf-ownedbrandrisehighexportsbusinessMaintained告ReportSectorgrowthwillbethenormSelf-ownedbrandsfurtherseizedmarketshareInFebthepenetrationratesofNEVsofself-ownedbrandsjointventurebrandswere评级跑赢大市维持52942respectivelyOpportunitiesintheautosectorstilllieinOEMsandsomecomponentcompanieswillalsobenefit2PenetrationrateofNEVsinFebexceeded30butrecoveryofindustryHK-listedOEMsandHSIperformancedemandisexpectedtobedelayedTheCPCAsFebruaryretailsalesofNEVs港股上市整车企业和恒生指数表现surgedby609yoywithpenetrationrateof316InFebwholesalesalesofextended-rangeEVswas29300unitsjumped1900yoyaccountingfor20010oftotalPHEVsalesItisexpectedthatextended-rangeEVpenetrationratewill0furtherriseRecentlyanumberoftraditionalFVOEMsinHubeiProvincehave-10launchedvehiclepurchasepromotionsmainlyintheformofOEMsubsidiesand-20governmentsubsidiesCombinedwiththegeneralpricecutsofPVsFVsand-30NEVssincethebeginningofthisyearconsumershaveformedexpectationsof证-40pricecutswhichdirectlyaffectsconsumersentimentEvenwithrelativelystrong-50recovery告ofNEVsalesinFebweexpectthatrecoveryofindustrydemandtobe券-60delayed研报-70Thetwosessionsputforwardtheguidelinesofexpandingconsumption究究greendevelopmentandNEVpoliciesarestillexpectedThegovernmentResearchReportworkreportofthetwosessionslastweekputforwardtheguidingdirectionof报研expandingconsumptiongreendevelopmentfortheautoindustryAstheHengSengIndexHK-listedMainAutoOEMs告numberofdomesticOEMscontinuestoriselower-tiermarketsareexpectedto券EquitybecomeanotherdrivingforceforNEVconsumptiongrowthOnthepolicysideSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalpromot证ionofNEVsinthecountrysideandimprovementinchargingfacilitiesisexpectedtocontinuethroughouttheyeartherebypromotingsalesimprovementHKmainOEMsandHSIperformanceWeexpectPHEVstobecomethemainconsumerbrandinthelower-tiermarketsWebelievethattherewillbemoresupportpoliciesfortheautoindustryintheshort港股主要整车企业和恒生指数表现term80SeizingFVmarketshareiscontinuingandopportunitiesstillliein60OEMsFortheOEMsectorwerecommendGeelyAuto00175HKGreat40TWallMotor-H02333HKandLiAuto-W02015HKforthecomponents20asectorwerecommendNexteer01316HK0-20bRiskwarning1Industrycompetitionmayintensifypricewarmayexceedexpectations2PVsalesmayfallshortofexpectations-40汽l-60车e销量正在缓慢复苏自主品牌渗透率持续提升行业分化加剧自主转型提速自主崛-80起出口高增将是常态自主品牌进一步抢占市场份额2月份自主品牌合资品牌的行-100新能源车渗透率分别为52942汽车板块机会仍在整车个别零部件企业也将受益20223102022510202271020229102022111020231102023310业HSI0017500489011140195802238L二月新能源汽车渗透率再次突破但行业需求复苏将有所推迟乘联会月新能源302023330121109866098680201509863汽车零售同比增609渗透率为3162月增程式电动车批发销量为293万辆同eAutomobilesSector比大增1900占插混总量的200增程式渗透率进一步提升可期近期湖北省多家SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalf传统燃油车企推出购车优惠活动主要形式为厂家补贴和政府补贴叠加今年以来乘用车普遍降价使消费者形成降价预期从而直接影响了消费者的购买情绪即使在2月新能t源汽车销量复苏较为强劲之际我们预测行业需求复苏时点也将会有所推迟M两会提扩大消费绿色发展指引新能源汽车政策仍可期上周两会政府工作报告对汽车行业提出扩大消费绿色发展的指导方向随着国内汽车保有量不断上升下沉a市场有望成为新能源汽车消费增长的另一动力政策端方面预计全年将持续推动新能源r汽车下乡完善充电设施进而推动销量改善我们预计插混将成为下沉市场消费主力我们相信短期还会有更多汽车行业扶持政策出台g抢占燃油车市场份额仍在延续机会仍在整车整车板块我们推荐吉利汽车00175HKi长城汽车-H02333HK和理想汽车-W02015HK零部件板块我们推荐耐世特01316HKn风险提示1行业竞争加剧价格战超预期2乘用车销量不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7rccthcdrclafcsosmretmnvniheaieytogeoeyfEslsnewexpectweFebinsalesNEVofrecoverystrongrecoveryrelativelywithEvensentimentconsumeraffectsdirectlywhichcutspriceCombinedwithgeneralpricecutsofPVsFVsandNEVssincethebeginningofthisyearconsumershsubsidiesandgovernmentsubsidiesmostlyextendedthatexpectedisvehiclesEVselfofNEVsof316salesdatasales2M2023releasedCPCAAssociationCarPassengerChinarecoverybutagain30exceededFebinNEVsofratePenetrationbenefitdrivingautonomousofapplicationChinasofdevelopmentvehiclesNEVtheselfandselfofratepenetrationandslowlyrecoveringSalesimprovementimproveandcountrysidebelievethattherewillbemoresupportpoliciesfortlowertheinbrandconsumermaintheConsideringanfacilitieschargingofperiodconstructiongrowthconsumptionNEVforforcedrivinganotherpenetrationmarketincreasegreenconsumptionexpectedstillarepoliciesNEVanddevelopmentgreenconsumptionexpandingofguidelinestheforwardputsessionstwoTheSeSourceSourcebethenormalnewwill1FigureeChineseautomarketin2023inmarketautoChinesethe100200300400500600700800whichwhichDongfengDongfengseriesjointventurebrandslasCPCA0Similarly-RetailRetailNEVsinSalesofChinaExportVolumeofNEVsownedbrandtransformationisacceleratingSelfacceleratingistransformationbrandownedint000Units000pagindustrydemandtobedelayeddemandtoindustrybeaercvrandrecoverySaleswGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiewere29300unitsjumped1900yoyaccountingfor200oftotalasfoofself-owhgvrmnwrrprotewssinlsweptowrteudndrcinfexpandingofdirectionguidingtheforwardputweeklastsessionstwotheofreportworkgovernmentThert13891389mnunitsup103yoyand74hepenetrationrateofNEV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