我们首予华润电力（以下简称“公司”）“买入”评级，目标价19.54港元。我们预测2022-2024年EPS分别为1.31/ 2.27/ 2.69港元，体现了公司绿色转型所带来的高速成长。通过分部估值给予19.54港元目标价（火电：0.7倍2023年PB；可再生能源：9.0倍2023年PE）。
　　我们的不同观点：市场担心公司正处亏损的火电业务会影响其转型进度，同时增加新能源业务拆分压力，因此对公司成长前景持保守态度。我们则对公司成长前景较为乐观，我们认为公司火电业务有望反转并再度成为支持公司转型的现金牛，且更长远来看，公司火电资产亦是其在中国电力系统转型背景下获取新能源项目的竞争优势。此外，鉴于相关金融理论及经验证据，我们认为即使分拆新能源业务（许多投资者不乐于见到的情景），现有股东利益也不会受损。
　　不畏浮云遮望眼：2021年公司火电板块在煤价高企背景下首次录得亏损，令投资者担心公司进一步发展将受到拖累。但我们认为反转有望，鉴于1）长协煤履约率有望提升、进口煤价下跌、市场化改革加速推进，以及2）公司火电资产质地佳：机组先进、运营效率高、拥区位优势。在过去两年新能源项目竞标中，火电公司越来越多受优惠待遇，体现了火电资产的竞争优势。这在很大程度上是因为火电提供的发电侧灵活性对于中国电力系统转型是不可或缺的，尤其是在现阶段。
　　催化剂：新能源装机加速增长、点火价差好于预期、电力市场化改革加速。风险提示：项目开展延迟、原材料价格高于预期、出现极端气候。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitlePeterShao邵俊樨究CompanyReportChinaResourcesPower00836HK85225095464EquityResearch公司报告华润电力00836HKpetershaogtjascomhk16March2023ItTableSWontummaryTakeLongFromHeadwindtoTailwindInitiateWithBuy从逆风到顺风的转变会在不远的将来首予买入WeinitiatecoverageonChinaResourcesPowerCRPortheCompany公withaBuyratingandaTPofHK1954Weforecast2022-2024EPSofRatingTableRankBuyHK131HK227HK269respectivelyreflectingrapidgrowthdrivenbythe司InitialCompanysgreentransformationOurTPofHK1954isderivedviaa报sum-of-the-partsapproachthermal07x2023PBrenewables90x2023PE评级买入首次覆盖告WherewedifferWebelievethemarketremainsconservativeaboutCRPsgrowthprospectinlightoftheCompanyscurrentlyloss-makingthermalexposurewhichCompanyReport6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK1954couldweighontheCompanystransformationandaddtothepressureforaspin-offofitsrenewablesbusinessHoweverweareratheroptimisticaboutCRPsgrowthprospectandwearguethatCRPsthermalbusinesscouldsoonturnintoacashShareprice股价HK16800cowagainsupportingtheCompanystransformationwhilefromalonger-termperspectivealsorepresentingacompetitiveedgeinsecuringnewrenewables告projectsamidChinaspowersystemtransformationMeanwhilewearguethatStockperformance证evenintheeventofarenewablesspin-offtheworstcasedeemedbysome股价表现报investorsexistingshareholdersofCRPwouldnotbeworseoffinlightofbothTableQuotePic30change券relevantfinancetheoryandempiricalevidence究研LookingbeyondcurrentheadwindsCRPsthermalsegmentpostedits20研first-everlossin2021amidhighcoalpricescausingconcernsthatitwouldweigh究ontheCompanysfurtherdevelopmentThatbeingsaidwebelieveaturnaround10券报isinsightgiven1weseeupsideinlong-termcoalcontractfulfilmentdeclining0告证importedcoalpricesandaccelerationinmarketliberalisationand2CRPsEquityResearchReportthermalassetsareofhighqualitywithadvancedgenerationfleethighoperational10efficiencyandregionaladvantagesTherehasalsobeengrowingpreferentialtreatmentofthermalIPPsduringrenewablesprojectauctionsinthepasttwo20yearsimplyingacompetitiveedgebroughtbythermalassetsThisislargely30TabbecausethegenerationflexibilityprovidedbythermalpowerisindispensabletoMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Nov-22Feb-23HSICRPChinaspowersystemtransformationespeciallyatthecurrentstageleICatalystsAcceleratedrenewablescapacitygrowthbetter-than-expecteddarknfo1spreadsaccelerationinpowermarketliberalisationRisksDelaysinprojectChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y能roll-outhigher-than-expectedrawmaterialcostsextremeweatherconditions股价变动1个月3个月1年Abs26183160源我们首予华润电力以下简称公司买入评级目标价1954港元我们预测2022-2024绝对变动ReltoHSIndex年EPS分别为131227269港元体现了公司绿色转型所带来的高速成长通过分部估值给59196204运相对恒指变动予1954港元目标价火电07倍2023年PB可再生能源90倍2023年PEAvgSharepriceHK营165164148我们的不同观点市场担心公司正处亏损的火电业务会影响其转型进度同时增加新能源业务拆平均股价港元行分压力因此对公司成长前景持保守态度我们则对公司成长前景较为乐观我们认为公司火电SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational业业务有望反转并再度成为支持公司转型的现金牛且更长远来看公司火电资产亦是其在中国电力系统转型背景下获取新能源项目的竞争优势此外鉴于相关金融理论及经验证据我们认为即使分拆新能源业务许多投资者不乐于见到的情景现有股东利益也不会受损EnergySectorOperations不畏浮云遮望眼2021年公司火电板块在煤价高企背景下首次录得亏损令投资者担心公司进一步发展将受到拖累但我们认为反转有望鉴于1长协煤履约率有望提升进口煤价下跌市场化改革加速推进以及2公司火电资产质地佳机组先进运营效率高拥区位优势在过去两年新能源项目竞标中火电公司越来越多受优惠待遇体现了火电资产的竞争优势这在很大程度上是因为火电提供的发电侧灵活性对于中国电力系统转型是不可或缺的尤其是在现阶段Tab催化剂新能源装机加速增长点火价差好于预期电力市场化改革加速风险提示项目开展leI延迟原材料价格高于预期出现极端气候Tablenfo2YearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231HKmHKmHKxHKxHK华2020A695517583158011154106178370906313888润2021A89800159303307915091837409029518182022F110420631913142982128191620905253169电2023F113798108952265724742052108090654110力2024F117784129492692189622213608107764122TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m48104Majorshareholder大股东ChinaResources629MarketcapHKm市值HKm808147Freefloat自由流通比率3713monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数000150606FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金163952WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK1806011220FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元195ChinaResourcesPower00836ChinaHKResourcesPowerSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HK1raMthgiRelbaTCONTENTSAForerunnerinLow-CarbonTransformation3TheflagshipandsolepowergeneratingarmofChinaResourcesGroup3Top-notchrenewablesbusinesswithoutstandingreturnprofile316March2023Ambitioustransformationagenda5ThermalBusinessaLadderoraStumblingBlock6LookingbeyondcurrentheadwindsassessingthequalityandpotentialofCRPscoal-firedassets6ThecompetitiveedgebroughtbythermalassetsduringChinaspowersystemtransformation9BreakingtheMythontheImpactofSpin-offs102raMthgiRelbaTEarningsEstimates11Valuation1200836HK华润电力ChinaResourcesPowerReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKAForerunnerinLow-CarbonTransformation1raMthgiRelbaTTheflagshipandsolepowergeneratingarmofChinaResourcesGroupAdifferentiatedbackgroundEstablishedin2001ChinaResourcesPowerCRPortheCompanyisoneofthelargestindependentpowerproducersIPPsinChinaengagedinbothconventionalandrenewablepowergenerationCRPiscontrolledbyChinaResourcesGroupCRGChinastop-notchcentralSOEaswellasaFortuneGlobal500companyranked70thin2022withadiversifiedbusinessreachspanningfromenergyrealestateandconsumerproductstohealthcarefinanceand16March2023technologysuchdiversificationprovidesCRPwithabundantbusinessopportunitiesintheareaofintegratedenergyservicesdistributedenergyservicesAstheonlypoweroperationplatformofCGRCRPisthesolereceiverofCRGssupportforthedevelopmentofpowerbusinesswhereasmanylistedIPPsinChinafacecertainlevelsofcompetitionfromsiblingpowercompaniesforinternalresourcesatthesamepowergroupsFigure-1CRPsownershipstructureasattheendof2021ChinaResourcesHoldingsChinaResourcesHoldingsOtherShareholdersPowerLimited629300137062raMthgiRelbaTChinaResourcesPowerSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternational00836HKTop-notchrenewablesbusinesswithoutstandingreturnprofileLow-carbontransformationinfull-swingsince2009CRPisamongtheearliestthermalIPPsinChinatodiversifyinto华润电力renewablesTheCompanystartedtoactivelyinvestinnewenergypredominantlyinwindpowerin2009withitsattributableinstalledcapacityofnewenergywindsolargrowingconsistentlyfrom241MWto15161MWinthe12yearsto2021reflectingaCAGRof412evenhigherthanpurerenewableplaysAsattheendof1H22theCompanysattributableinstalledcapacitywas50018MWamongwhichthermalwindsolarandhydrocapacityamountedto33716MW67415165MW303858MW17and280MW06respectivelyFigure-2CRPsattributableinstalledcapacityofnewenergyhasincreasedsteadilysince2009ChinaResourcesPowerMW500184799735500008584336582428028032040392316303743656228036185360761516540000347324532801433744810396313311302802752802532520280280868746325629681622626921028042353000025271355419420222310280028028721935816221641736501234147152000001471326461230241147113325563371610730197311432989229892309723212727497102336923769100001856520850641697656533140020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020211H22ThermalWindHydroSolarProportionofnewenergycapacityRHSSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKFigure-3CRPsgrowthinnewenergycapacitywindFigure-4CRPsnewenergywindsolardevelopmentsolaroutperformedleadingrenewablesfirmsleadsthermalpeerswith1artransformationaMthgiagendaRelbaTMW353163072500030206742000025CAGR4121516120150001307315125117CAGR15310216March20231010000CAGR143550003758262002410CRP00836HKLongyuanPowerDatangRenewable00916HK01798HKShareofwindandsolarintotalattributablecapacityAttributablecapacityofwindandsolarin2009Attributablecapacityofwindandsolarin2021SourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalWhilegrowingatarapidrateCRPsrenewablesbusinessalsoexcelledinachievingtop-notchreturnsimplyingoutstandingprojectmanagementfrompre-projectfeasibilitystudiescostcontroltogeneration2raMmanagementthgiReCRPslbaTrenewablesportfoliomainlyconsistsofwindpoweranditsreturnprofileleadsthatofboththermalandrenewablespeersOurcalculationsshowthattheprofitabilityofCRPsrenewablessegmentlargelystayedataboveRMB020KWhoverthepastfewyearsconsistentlyhigherthanthatofitspeersAlthoughCRPswindfarmsaremainlylocatedinChinasWindZoneIVwherewindresourceisexpectedtobetheleastfavourableCRPhasmanagedtodeliverhigher-than-peersutlisationhoursThisinourviewreflectsnotonlybetterwindconsumptioninChinasmoreaffluentregionswhereCRPhasalargepresencebutalsobetterpre-projectfeasibilitystudiesmoreadvancedwindturbinesandbettergenerationmanagementBesidesoperationalefficiencytheprofitabilityofCRPswindfarmsisfurtherenhancedbythehighersubsidisedtariffsinWindZoneIV00836HKFigure-5CRPachievedoutstandingwindutilisationFigure-6CRPsrenewablesbusinessismorelucrativehoursdespiteamajoritypresenceinWindZoneIVwithahighernetprofitperKWh华润电力HoursRMB246425000250240230222314020223623002225220102001601701401621000150130120130121900010008008008008007007006007ChinaResourcesPower170000515000002017201820192020202120182019202020211H22CRP00836HKDatangRenewable01798HKCRP00836HKLongyuanPower00916HKLongyuanPower00916HKCGNNewEnergy01811HKChinaPowerIntlDev02380HKNationalavgerageDatangRenewable01798HKChinaPowerIntlDev02380HKSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSteadygrowthofrenewablesbusinesshasbroughtenhancedearningsstabilityIn2017-2021CRPsrevenuefromrenewablesgrewfromRMB7482mntoRMB20280mnreflectingaCAGRof238andthesegmentsresultgrewfromRMB3356mntoRMB10820mnduringthesameperiodreflectingaCAGRof340Renewablesaccountedfor42oftotalsegmentresultsin2020upfrom34in2017ThegrowingcontributionfromrenewableshasbroughttheCompanyincreasingearningsstabilityIn2021whileCRPrecordednetlossofRMB6349mnexcludingnon-cashexchangegainsandlossesfromitsthermalsegmenttheCompanyachievedshareholdersprofitofRMB1593mnasearningsfromitsrenewablesbusinessmorethancompensatedforthelossfromthethermalsegmentReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKFigure-7CRPsawgrowingelectricitysalesvolumeFigure-8CRPsawgrowingrevenuefromrenewablesfromrenewables1raMthgiRelbaTHKmnMWhWindHydroSolarGrowthwindRHS2500010035000000100GrowthhydroRHSGrowthsolarRHS90202803000000080200008070250000006015000625601247916March202320000000401059450100009115401500000020748230240100000000500021820162178105000000-2000201720182019202020210-40RevenuefromrenewablesGrowthRHS20172018201920202021SourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-9CRPsawrisingrenewablessegmentresultsFigure-10BreakdownofCRPstotalsegmentalresultsHKmn2raMth415giRelbaTHKmn120001002000050108201613590451000015000428010956111684010004678440357010000168980005951629343344876784603599303356569550001082025600051250935256686681448750192040040003356359915305125247102050002000500836HK1072100000002017201820192020202120172018201920202021ThermalRenewablesRenewablessegmentresultGrowthRHSCoalminingShareofrenewables华润电力SourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalNoteweadjustedthereported2017-2019figuresbyincludingfinancecostsNoteweadjustedtherenewablessegmentresultsin2017-2019byincludingsothattheyarecomparablewiththereportedfiguresin2020-2021financecoststomakethemcomparablewiththereportedfiguresin2020-2021AmbitioustransformationagendaChinaResourcesPowerInsupportofChinasdualcarbongoalCRPaimstobuild40GWofrenewablescapacityduringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod2021-2025about25xofthe1584GWofinstalledcapacityinrenewablesattheendof2020AccordingtotheCompanyabout30ofthe40GWrenewablesadditionwillcomefromwindand70willcomefromsolarandtherequiredcapexwillcomefrom1operatingcashflows2loanfinancingand3securitisationofoutstandingrenewablessubsidyFigure-11CRPtargets40GWofrenewablescapacityadditionin2021-2025MW5149050000400004123830000200001583711490154419663Report100007770112389420754402018A2019A2020A2021A2025FCompanyInstalledcapacityinrenewbalesAttributablecapacityinrenewbalesSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKThermalBusinessALadderoraStumblingBlock1raMthgiRelbaTLookingbeyondcurrentheadwindsassessingthequalityandpotentialofCRPscoal-firedassetsThefirsteverlossIn2021whileCRPmanagedtodeliverpositiveearningsthankstogrowingcontributionsfromrenewablestheCompanysthermalsegmentrecordednetlossofHK6349mnamidsoaringcoalpricesmarkingthesegmentsfirsteverlossThelosssustainedin1H22amountingtoHK2027mnWhileweestimatethatthebreakevendarkspreadforCRPliesbetweenRMB90-100theCompanysreporteddarkspreadwasonlyRMB502MWhandRMB849MWhin2021and1H2216March2023respectivelyAmidheadwindsforthethermalsegmentCRPsnetcashfromoperatingactivitiesdroppedfromHK20702mnin2020toHK7400mnin2021leadingtoconcernsthatthethermalsegmentwouldweighontheCompanysrenewablesdevelopmentandaddonthepressurefortheCompanytospinoffitsrenewablesbusinessFigure-12CRPsdarkspreadsdeterioratedin2021Figure-13CRPsrevenueandnetprofitlossfromtheand1H22thermalsegment2020-20211H22RMBMWhHKDmn4508000010421969520400700008570726000073635035602raMthgiRelbaT337333143370500004300305838920400002250300000200203820000-21907100004182-4150-520-6100100002027-863495020000-91-100202020211H222019202020211H22RevenueofthermalsegmentDarkspreadAvgthermaltariffAvgunitfuelcostNetprofitofthermalsegmentNetmarginofthermalsegmentRHS00836HKSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalNoteCRPsreportednetprofitforthethermalsegmentexcludesnon-cashexchangegainsandlosses华润电力CurrentheadwindsshouldnotopaquethefactthatCRPsthermalassetsareofhighqualityinbothcomparativeandabsolutetermsByandlargeCRPsthermalsegmentoverthepasthasprovidedtheCompanywithdecentreturnsandcashflowsevenduringtoughtimessuchas2008whenmostthermalIPPsinChinawereloss-makingIn2017-2020CRPsthermalsegmentachievedoperatingmarginof8392117132weincludedfinancecostsinthecalculationof2017-2019segmentresultswhereasCRPexcludedsuchexpensepriorto2020respectivelyreflectingoutstandingprofitabilityasthesefigureswereevenhigherthanthegrossmarginofthethermalsegmentsofleadingthermalIPPsduringthesameperiodInChinaResourcesPoweradditiontoadvancedmanagementpracticewebelievethebelowtwofactorscanalsoexplaintheoutstandingperformanceofCRPsthermalsegmentAdvancedgenerationfleetNearly70ofCRPscoal-firedgeneratorshaveanameplatecapacityof600MWorabovehigherthanthatofotherleadingthermalIPPsinChinasuchasHuanengPowerIntlat54andHuadianPowerIntlat60LargergeneratorstendtohavehighergeneratingefficiencyandloweremissionintensitygivenotherconditionsbeingequalThecoalconsumptionrateofCRPwaskeptatacompetitiveleveloverthepastfiveyearsRegionaladvantagesThemajorityofCRPsthermalcapacityislocatedinthemoreaffluentmorepopulatedcoastalprovincesinChinasuchasJiangsuGuangdongZhejiangandLiaoningwherethereishigherdemandforpowerCPRhasachievedmuchhigherthermalutilisationhourscomparedwiththermalpeersinaconsistentmannerin2017-2021InadditioninthemoreaffluentprovincessuchasGuangdongandJiangsuthereisnotonlyhigherpowerpriceaffordabilitybutalsofasterprogressinpowermarketliberationwhichcanbetterrecognisethevalueofthermalpoweramidChinaspowersystemtransformationReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKFigure-14CRPsthermalsegmenthadbetterreturnsFigure-15CRPsthermalsegmentearneddecentnetcomparedwithotherleadingthermalIPPsprofitatRMB25centsper1rKWhaMoftpowerhgisoldRelbaT15132117408392102730520101002017201820192020202100-5-1016March2023-103-20-18-10-30-27-31RMBRMBcent-30-40-15-37-36-50-20-49-60OperatingmarginofCRPs00836HKthermalsegment202020211H22GrossmarginofHuanengPowerIntls00902HKthermalsegmentNetNetprofitperKWhofthermalpowersoldCRP00836HKChinaPowerIntlDev02380HKGrossmarginofHuadianPowerIntls01071HKthermalsegmentHuanengPowerIntl00902HKHuadianPowerIntl01071HKDatangIntlPower00991HKSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-1668ofCRPscoal-firedgeneratorshadaFigure-17CRPscoalconsumption2raMratethwasgikeptRatealbaTcapacityof600MWorabovebytheendof2021competitivelevel8031070305303683006030060297296297505455295402903028500836HK2028010CoalconsumptionrategKWh275firedgenerators600MWataboveor-020172018201920202021华润电力CRP00836HKHuanengPowerIntl00902HKHuadianPowerIntl01071HKDatangIntlPower00991HKofcoalChinaPowerIntlDev02380HKSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-18CRPsthermalpowerhasamajorityFigure-19CRPsthermalpowerenjoyedhigherChinaResourcesPowerpresenceinthemoreaffluentcoastalprovincesutilisationhours90008380HoursCoastalprovincecity8000550070004964497650006000472547304320448950004260450040003703330030001770400016851381200013201080350010006806476005127720300020172018201920202021AttributableCapacityThermalofPowerMWCRP00836HKHuanengPowerIntl00902HKHuadianPowerIntl01071HKDatangIntlPower00991HKReportSourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetherespectivecompaniesGuotaiJunanInternationalNoteAsattheendof1H22CompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage7of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKTurnaroundinsightWebelieveitwonttakelongforCPRsthermalbusinesstoturnbackintoacashcowprovidingvital1raMthgiRelbaTfundingfortheCompanystransformationagendain2020CRPsthermalsegmentcontributedRMB4182mnofcoreearningsreflectingprofitabilityofRMB27centsKWhGoingforwardweseemoreupsidethandownsideforCRPsthermalsegmentbasedonthebelowrationaleIWeexpectimprovingbottomlineondecliningspotcoalpricesandbetterlong-termcoalcontractfulfilmentBothdomesticandoverseasspotcoalpriceshavedroppedconsiderablysincetheirpeaksinNov2022implyingasignof16March2023improvingsupply-demandWebelieve2023shouldseethegrowthofsupplyoutpacingthatofdemandTakeChinasdomesticsupply-demandlandscapeforexampleamidthesupportofadministrativemeasuresChinamanagedtoincreaseitscoaloutputtoahistorichighat456bntonsup043bntonsyoySPexpectsthecountryscoalsupplyin2023tofurtherincreaseby034bntonswhichwebelieveshouldoutpacethegrowthofdemandduringtheyearespeciallyconsideringtheimplicationsofthepotentialrecessionoverseasamidahighinterestrateenvironmentCRPisalsoabeneficiaryofdecliningoverseascoalpricesastheCompanysthermalbusinesshasamajoritypresenceincoastalprovinceswebelieveimportedcoalaccountedforaround5-10oftheCompanystotalcoalconsumptionin2022Long-termcoalcontractcoveragehasalsoimprovedAccordingtoanupdateissuedbytheNDRCon1Mar2023the2raMthgiRelbaTcontractedcoalsupplyforcoal-firedgenerationhasalreadyreached25bntonsfor2023anamountthatshouldcover100ofthetotalconsumptionbyChinesethermalIPPsthisyearMeanwhiletheregulatorymeasuresputinplacetoimprovelong-termcoalcontractfulfilmentin2023aremorecomprehensiveandstringentthanthosefor2022PerthenoticeissuedbyChinasNDRCinNov2022regardingthesigningandexecutionofmid-to-long-termcoalcontractsin20232023年电煤中长期合同签约履约工作方案通知therequirementsaremorecomprehensiveanddetailedwithregardstotheeligiblesupplierspriceandqualitywhiletherearemorestringentrequirementsforcontractexecutionaswellasmoreseriouspunishmentforcontractviolationsItisalsoworthunderlyingthatasacentralSOECRPismorelikelythanlocalSOEsorprivatefirmstohaveahigherfulfilmentrate00836HKFigure-20DomesticandoverseascoalpriceshaveFigure-21SPexpectsChinascoaloutputtoincreaseenteredadownwardtrajectorysinceNov2022to490bntonsin2023up034bntonsor75yoyRMBton华润电力1700Bntons60160015004905045614004133953973873853904037537013003413521200301100100020900ChinaResourcesPower1080070000Jul-22Jan-22Jan-23Jun-22Oct-22Apr-22Sep-22Feb-23Feb-22Dec-22Aug-22Nov-22Mar-22Mar-23May-22QinghuangdaoSpotCoalPrice5500kcalGuangzhouPortAustralianCoalSpotPrice5500kcalGuangzhouPortIndonisianCoalSpotPrice5500kcalSourceWINDGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceNationalBureauofStatisticsSPGuotaiJunanInternationalIIAccelerationinpowermarketliberalisationTheneedforChinatohaveawell-functioningliberalisedpowermarketisgrowingasthecountrypushesforwarditspowersystemtransformationSincelate2022wehaveseenaccelerationinpowermarketliberationnotablythereleaseoftheConsultationPaperonElectricitySpotMarketBasicRules电力现货市场基本规则征求意见稿thepermissionofsubsidisedrenewablesprojectstoparticipateingreenpowertradingandincreaseddiscussionwithintheChinesegovernmentregardingtheestablishmentofcapacitymarketWebelievemarketliberalisationcannotonlybringhigherReportthermaltariffsegthenearly20pricehikeseenGuangdongslong-termpowercontractsin2023butalsoleadtostablecashflowsandenhancedearningsstabilityforthermalIPPsasmarketmechanismsshouldbetterrecognisethevalueassociatedwiththermalpowersroleasaregulatingandbackuppowersourceasrequiredbypowersystemtransformationCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage8of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKThecompetitiveedgebroughtbythermalassetsduringChinaspowersystemtransformation1raMthgiRelbaTThermalassetsrepresentastrongcompetitiveedgeforCRPtoobtainnewenergyprojectsamidChinaspowersystemtransformationThisisprimarilybecausethegenerationflexibilityprovidedbythermalpowerwillremainamajorsolutionforthefurtherintegrationofvariablerenewableenergyVREatthecurrentstageofChinaspowersystemtransformationsincetheflexibilityprovidedbythecountrystransmissionstoragedemandmanagementremainratherlimitedAnotherreasonisthattheintegrationofVREinChinastillreliesheavilyontheexistingtransmissionnetworkconnectedtothermalpowerplantsItisthusnotsurprisingthatpolicieshavebeenincreasinglyfavourableforthermalIPPstoobtainnew16March2023energyprojectssince2021ForexampleoverthepasttwoyearsHubeiprovincehasallocatedaround7GWofnewenergyprojectsamongwhich35GWhavebeenawardedtobiddersbasedonthermalcapacityinSep2022ChinasNERCandNEArepliedtotheexecutionplansofseveralnewenergybasesinInnerMongolia内蒙古库布齐沙漠鄂尔多斯中北部新能源基地鄂尔多斯南部新能源基地宁夏腾格里沙漠东南部新能源基地实施方案的复函confirmingtheinclusionofthermalpowerasasupportingpowersourcefornational-levelmegarenewableprojectsTable-1TheallocationofdevelopmentquotainHubeisrenewableenergymegabasesJan2021-Dec2022DevelopmentDevelopmentquota-Developmentquota-QuotarewardedbasedonQuotarewardedtoEntityquota-firstbatchadditionalbatchpumpedstoragecoal-firedcapacityequipmentmakersSPIC400MW300MWNil2ra100MMWthgiRelNilbaTChinaEnergyInvestmentCorp1200MW900MWNil750MWNilChinaHuadianCorp800MW600MWNil750MWNilChinaResourcesPower800MW600MWNil600MWNilChinaThreeGorgesCorp400MW300MW280MW600MWNilChinaHuanengGroup400MW300MWNil600MWNilBeijingEnergyNilNilNil100MWNilTitanWindEnergyNilNilNil0MW600MWSubtotal4000MW3000MW280MW3500MW600MW00836HKSourceNDRCGuotaiJunanInternationalTable2ThermalpowerhasbeenspecifiedassupportingpowerfornationalrenewableenergyprojectsbytheNDRC华润电力ProjectnameDeveloperInstalledcapacitySupportingrequirements库布齐沙漠鄂尔多斯南部杭锦旗新建新能源基LedbyChinaHuaneng4GWofwind依托周边电厂含近区配套扩能改造升级煤电抽水蓄能项目作为支撑性地Group8GWofsolar电源配套特高压输电线路起点位于鄂尔多斯市落点在中东部地区统筹配建新型储能RenewableEnergyBasesinHangjinBannerSouthofOrdosandKubuqiDesertThesupportingpowersourceisretrofittedcoal-firedpowerandpumpedhydropowerThestartingpointofthesupportingultra-highvoltagetransmissionlineislocatedinErdosCitywiththeendpointinthecentral-easternregionTheprojectwillbeequippedwithpowerstorageChinaResourcesPower腾格里沙漠东南部宁夏中卫吴忠和固原市新LedbyNationalEnergy18GWofwind依托周边电厂含近区配套扩能改造升级煤电抽水蓄能项目作为支撑性建新能源基地Group9GWofsolar电源配套特高压输电线路起点位于宁夏境内腾格里沙漠南缘落点在湖南湘南地区统筹配建新型储能RenewbleEnergyBasesinTenggerDesertSoutheastNingxiaZhongweiWuzhongandThesupportingpowersourceisretrofittedcoal-firedpowerandpumpedGuyuanCityhydropowerThestartingpointofthesupportingultra-highvoltagetransmissionlineislocatedinsouthernedgeofTenggerDesertinNingxiawiththeendpointinthecentral-easternregionTheprojectwillbeequippedwithpowerstorage库布齐沙漠鄂尔多斯中北部新能源基地LedbyChinaThree4GWofwind依托周边电厂含近区配套扩能改造升级煤电抽水蓄能项目作为支撑性GorgesCorporation8GWofsolar电源配套特高压输电线路起点位于鄂尔多斯市落点位于河北省中南部地RenewableEnergyBasesinKubqiDesertOrdos区统筹配建新型储能NorthCentralThesupportingpowersourceisretrofittedcoal-firedpowerandpumpedhydropowerThestartingpointofthesupportingultra-highvoltagetransmissionlineislocatedinErdosCitywiththeendpointinthecentralandsouthernareasofHebeiprovinceTheprojectwillbeequippedwithpowerstorageSourceNDRCGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage9of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKBreakingtheMythontheImpactofSpin-offs1raMthgiRelbaTWhatisaspin-offSimplyputaspin-offreferstowhenaparentcompanysellsaspecificbusinessunitordivisionieasubsidiarytoeffectivelycreateanewstandalonecompanyAspartofthespin-offtheparentcompanysexistingshareholdersaregivensharesinthenewindependentcompanytheexistingshareholdersreceivesharesinproportiontotheiroriginalownershippercentageintheparentcompanyUponcompletionofthespin-offitisthedecisionoftheshareholdersonwhethertocontinuetoholdthosenewsharesortosellthemintheopenmarket16March2023Spin-offsareexpectedtobevalueaccretiveIntheoryacompanywouldonlyconsiderspin-offswhendoingsoaddsvalueeitherthroughimprovingoperationalefficiencyreducinginformationasymmetryloweringtaxliabilityimprovingcorporategovernanceoracombinationofalloftheabovementionedAslongastheunderlyingspin-offdoesnotoccurunderduressegregulatoryrequirementandfiresaleitshouldcreatepositiveshareholdersvalueinpracticaltermsthismeansthevalueofthenewsharesinthespun-offunitallocatedonaproratabasistoexistingshareholdersoftheparentcompanyshouldmorethancompensateforthesharepricelossintheparentcompanyThereisabundantempiricalevidencesuggestingthatspin-offsdocreateshareholdervalueAfterstudying25corporatespin-offeventsthatoccurredinSingaporebetween1975and2005Uddinfindsthatshareholdersoftheparentcompanyon12raMthgiRelbaTaveragegainedabout1573adjustedvalueoverthetestperiodSimilarevidencecanbefoundinGermanyafterexamining8spin-offsinGermanybetween2010and2021Steureretalsuggestthatthecumulativeaverageabnormalreturnoverthethree-dayeventwindis4912Figure-22Whathappensinatypicalspin-offFigure-23Averageabnormalreturnofparentcompanyovertimethroughtheeventspin-offwindow-202000836HK华润电力ChinaResourcesPowerSourceSteureretal2021Spin-offsandTheirImpactonShareholderSourceSteureretal2021Spin-offsandTheirImpactonShareholderWealthAnEmpiricalAnalysisontheGermanCapitalMarketWealthAnEmpiricalAnalysisontheGermanCapitalMarketTheinvestmentcaseinahypotheticalpost-spin-offworldWebelieveCRPwillremainattractiveinahypotheticalpost-spin-offscenarioaswithouttheneedtoinvestinrenewablestheCompanysthermalbusinessisabletoprovideinvestorswithstablecashflowswhileitsspun-offrenewablessegmentcanstilladdvaluetotheCompanythroughinvestmentincomeReportCompany1UddinMH2010CorporateSpin-offsandShareholdersValueEvidencefromSingaporeTheInternationalJournalofBusinessandFinanceResearch2Steureretal2021Spin-offsandTheirImpactonShareholderWealthAnEmpiricalAnalysisontheGermanCapitalMarketJournalofFinancialRiskManagementSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage10of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKEarningsEstimates1raMthgiRelbaTWeforecast2022-2024EPSofHK131HK227HK269respectivelyOurprojectedearningsgrowthisprimarilydrivenbygrowthinrenewablescapacityaswellasimprovementinthethermalsegmentOurkeyassumptionsareasfollowsIn2022-2024weexpectCRPtoaddatotalof43GW80GW100GWofconsolidatednewenergycapacityrespectivelyAmongthetotalnumbersin2022-2024solarpowerwillaccountfor25GW60GW80GWrespectivelywhilewindpowerwillaccountfortherest16March2023Weassume4500utilisationhoursforthermalpower2300forwindpowerand1500forsolarpowerin2022-2024Our2022-2024tariffassumptionsareRMB420MWhRMB412MWhandRMB403MWhrespectivelyforthermalpowerRMB481MWhRMB469MWhandRMB457MWhrespectivelyforwindpowerRMB461MWhRMB442MWhandRMB425MWhrespectivelyforsolarpowerWeexpectCRPtoturnarounditsthermalsegmentin2023withasegmentresultofHK5135mnInlinewithcapacityexpansionweexpectcapextobeHK32bnHK39bnHK46bnin2022-2024respectivelyTosupportcapacityexpansionweexpecttotaldebttoreachRMB146bnRMB169bnandRMB202bnrespectivelyin2022-2024whiledebtassetratioremainingatareasonablelevelupfrom447in2021to532in20242raMthgiRelbaTTable-3Keyassumptions2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FConsolidatedinstalledcapacityMW4602550297657577403784317-yoyMW29734632440062667766Amongwhich-Thermal3453544440456004588046160-yoyMW170099051160280280-Wind1042314466162661826620266-yoyMW17384044180020002000-Solar597901342194211742100836HK-yoyMW89303252060008000AverageutilisationhoursThermal44894730450045004500-yoyhours23624123000华润电力Wind22362464230023002300-yoyhours3522816400Solarna1510150015001500-yoyhoursnana1000AveragetariffsRMBMWhThermal331356420412403-yoy17741802020Wind507494481469457-yoy0626252525ChinaResourcesPowerSolarnana461442425-yoynanana4040CapexHKbn3127323946TotaldebtHKbn102128146169202-Debtassetratio394447470499532SourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-4Earningsestimates2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FRevenueThermal5707269520889948863987493Renewables1247920280214262515930291Total6955189800110420113798117784Operatingprofit140935479119701937623293Profitbeforetax11470184283421518018205Profitaftertax867688474341281715234EPSRMB15800330141526033353ReportSegmentresultsbeforetaxandunallocateditemsThermal7546715634451356612Renewables4802942990781079313184CompanyTotal12349227387341592819795SourceCRPGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage11of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKValuation1raMthgiRelbaTWeinitiatewithBuyandaSOTP-derivedTPofHK1954ForCRPsthermalsegmentweapplya2023PBof07xcomparedwiththerangeof05x-08xamongleadingthermalIPPsWebelieveaPBatthehigherendoftherangeisjustifiableforCRPgiventheCompanysthermalassetshavehigher-than-peersprofitabilityForCRPsrenewablessegmentweapplya2023PEof90xwithreferencetopurerenewablesplayssuchasLongyuanPower00916HKXinyiEnergy03868HKandDatangRenewable01798HKWeapplynodiscountinrelationtothepotentialspin-offofCRPsrenewablessegmentaswebelievespin-offsshouldbevalueaccretiveforexistingshareholdersinlightofbothrelevantfinancetheoryandempirical16March2023evidenceTable-5PeersvaluationMarketCapPEfiscalyearPBfiscalyearCompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpriceHKDmn21A22F23F24F21A22F23F24FPeersthermalHuanengPowerIntl-H00902HKHKD415132351na155755705060606HuadianPowerIntl-H01071HKHKD32963058na86635107060505DatangIntlPowerGenCo-H00991HKHKD14152663nana1286407090807SimpleAveragena121895706070606WeightedAveragena1338357060606062raMthgiRelbaTPeersrenewablesChinaLongyuanPower-H00916HKHKD945136407102116857310100908XinyiEnergyHoldings03868HKHKD2331718713417512510713151313ChinaDatangCorpRenewable-H01798HKHKD2652000312285725912131009SimpleAverage120125948012131110WeightedAverage108118877411111009SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalNoteDataextractedasat15March2023Table-6SOTPvaluation00836HKMethodologyMultipleIntrinsicvalueHKDmnThermalPB07x19667RenewablesPE90x74311华润电力Subtotal93978Noofsharesmn4810TPHKD1954SourceGuotaiJunanInternationalChinaResourcesPowerReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage12of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKFinancialStatementsandRatios1raMthgiRelbaTTableIncomeStatementIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetBalanceSheetYearend31DecHKm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FYearend31DecHKm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTotalrevenue6955189800110420113798117784PPE180817192953209580231300258896Otherincome24602812345834253416Intangibleassets1107511068110681106811068Fuelcosts3249458444684266256859804InterestsinassociatesandJVs1398214521145211452114521DEPN1171314598153741683818722Othernon-currentassets131201487214872148721487216March2023Staffcosts60016355781480538335Totalnon-currentassets218994233415250041271761299357Repairsandmaintenance21192519268929203223Impairmentcharges600433107010701070Cashcashequivalents50367934869076525849Consumables10431314161616651723Inventories29126748674867486748Otheroperatingexpenses21572707332834303550Tradereceivables3142837769436575183765479Otherincome24602812345834253416Otherscurrentassets12621489148914891489Othergainsandlossesnet42513575505147284897Totalcurrentassets4063853941605846772679566Operatingprofit140935479119701937623293Totalassets259632287355310625339487378923Financecostsnet34223760411947335564ShareofresultsofassociatesandJVs799122491537477Short-termdebts2015823186279863434843102Tradeandotherpayables33587341363601535013345812raMthgiRelbaTProfitbeforetax11470184283421518018205Othercurrentliabilities1132010737107371073710737IncomeTax279495890823632971Totalcurrentliabilities6506568059747388009888420Profitaftertax867688474341281715234Long-termdebts82109105310118110135076158420Non-controllinginterest1094709111519232285Othernon-currentliabilities65076935693569356935Shareholdersprofitloss7583159363191089512949Totalnon-currentliabilities88617112245125045142011165355BasicEPS15800330131422652692Totalliabilities153682180304199783222109253775DilutedEPS15800330131422652692Totalshareholdersequity8580388388921799871610648500836HKMinorityinterest2014818663186631866318663TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalequity105950107051110842117379125148华润电力Yearend31DecHKm2020A2021A2022F2023F2024FTableFinancialRatioProfitbeforetax11470184283421518018205FinancialRatiosDDA11713145981537416838187222020A2021A2022F2023F2024FWorkingcapitaladjustments3496105874010918214075MarginsIncometaxpaid2793228590823632971Operatingmargin20361108170198Others38083832362841965088Netprofitmargin1251067113129Cashfromoperatingactivities207027400224262466924969ChinaResourcesPowerReturnRatiosCapEx3052925118320003855946317ROA3303243840Others19055719491537477ROE881869110122Cashfrominvestingactivities2862419398315093802245841LiquidityleverageProceedsfromborrowingsnet1407823385176002332832098Totaldebttoequity394447470499532Dividendpaid35814100364362807465Netgearing11331364149116391838Others30024558411947335564Interestcoverageratiox4415304243Cashfromfinancingactivities74951472798391231519069Cashatbegofyear49075036793486907652Netchangesincash427272875510381803Effectofforeignexchanges556169000Cashatendofyear50367934869076525849SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage13of14TablePageHeaderChinaResourcesPower00836HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinition1raMthgiRelbaTTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable16March2023Neutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport00836HK3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReport华润电力withinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesChinaResourcesPowerDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionReport2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage14of14