2023年1-2月全国房地产销售金额与去年大致持平。国家统计局2023年3月15日公布了今年1-2月份的房地产销售数据。不出意外，考虑到最近在一些高线城市出现的地产回暖，我们在今年1-2月份的房地产销售数据上也看到了复苏的迹象。2023年1-2月份，全国房地产销售面积录得同比3.6%的小幅下跌（2022年全年则同比下跌24.3%）。在销售金额方面，今年1-2月的全国商品房销售金额复苏更为明显，同比仅下跌0.1%。我们相信1-2月份明显提升的商品房销售单价（人民币10,209元/平方米，同比升3.7%），也证实了我们之前的观点，即楼市迎来回暖，在一些高线城市楼市率先复苏。展望近期，我们认为楼市将在二线城市以及一些低线城市迎来较强的复苏，考虑到1）政策松绑将在这些城市持续深入；以及2）许多在2022年由出险房企处置的地产项目，可能在今年二季度推出以推动销售。
　　房地产新开工数据继续下跌，但跌幅有所收窄。2023年头两个月，房地产新开工面积继续下跌，同比跌幅为9.4%。但是相较于2022年全年的39.4%同比下跌已经大幅收窄。在我们看来，有两个主要因素将推动房地产新开工数据在接下来几个月持续变好。第一个因素是来自持续盘活的中小开发商手中持有的不良土地项目。第二个因素是，去年由地方城投以及建筑公司获取的大量土地项目逐渐进入建设开发周期。我们相信销售的复苏以及住房销售价格的提升也会给开发商带来更多信心，抓住压抑需求的集中释放窗口期，在2023年第二季度新开工并推出更多楼盘。
　　房地产开发投资数据相对保持韧性。2023年1-2月份，房地产开发投资数据同比下跌4.6%，也较2022年全年的同比下跌9.5%相对收窄。考虑到较弱的土地投资，我们认为房地产开发投资得以继续保持韧性的主要原因是来自较强的房地产施工建设。这也在继续上升的竣工数字上有所反映。在2023年1-2月，房地产竣工面积同比增加了8.0%。考虑到“保交付”仍然是接下来较长时间的政策重点，我们认为房地产竣工面积将继续保持势头，因此也给2023年的房地产开发投资数据带来支撑。
　　行业观点：我们建议投资人收集房地产板块，尤其是在最近板块一些重大房企公布盈利预警，有所回撤之后（例如碧桂园2023年3月13日发布负面盈利预警）。我们认为市场情绪仍然会因持续的基本面改善和更多的需求端刺激政策而改善。与此同时，我们也建议投资人在选择标的上更为审慎。我们仍然推荐行业内的央国企或者民营优质龙头，考虑到1）他们稳健的即将发布的2022财年业绩；以及2）更多融资优势下持续有质量的增长。优质龙头中，我们推荐龙湖集团（00960 HK）、金地集团（600383 SH）、保利发展（600048 SH）和万科企业（02202 HK）。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquityFlashTableBasicInfoNotePropertySectorChunliZhan詹春立快讯房地产行业85225097745jameszhangtjascomhk15March2023TableMainInfoJan-FebNBSDataSalesRecoveryisAheadofOtherFundamentalImprovements快1-2月全国房地产数据点评销售复苏领先于其他基本面数据改善讯Jan-Feb2023nationalpropertysalesvaluestayedlargelyflatcomparedtolastyearTheNationalBureauFlashNoteFlashofStatisticsNBSreleasedJan-Feb2023propertysalesdataon15Mar2023Thereisnosurprisethatwesawsalesrecoveryinthefirsttwomonthsof2023consideringtherecentsmallrevivalinsomehigher-tiercitiesInJan-Feb2023nationalpropertysalesvolumerecordedaslightdeclineat36YoYfull-year2022243YoYdeclineIntermsofpropertysalesvaluetheJan-Febdatashowedstrongerrecoverywithonly01YoYdeclineWebelievetherisingsalesASPinJan-Feb2023RMB10209sqmat37YoYgrowthreinforcedourpreviousviewthatthepropertymarkethasembracedasmallrevivalwithearlyrecoveryofthepropertymarketinsomehigher-tiercitiesGoingforwardweexpectstrongerrecoveryinpropertysalesinsometier-2orlower-tiercitiesconsidering1relaxedpolicytofurtherdeepeninthesecitiesand1mostoftheprojectsdisposedofbythedistresseddevelopersin2022aregoingtolaunchin2Q2023PropertynewstartscontinuedtodeclinebutatanarrowerrateInthefirsttwomonthsof2023theGFAof证propertynewstartscontinuedtofallat94YoYwhichwasmuchnarrowerthanthefallof394YoYforthefull告券yearof2022Inourviewtherearetwomainfactorstocontinuetoboostpropertynewstartsinthefollowing研报monthsOnecomesfromthecontinuedrevitalizationofnon-performinglandparcelsheldbysmallerdevelopersThesecondfactoristhatabundantlandparcelsacquiredbycityinvestmententerprisesandconstruction究究companiesin2022willgraduallyenterintotheconstructioncycleWebelievethatsalesrecoveryandrisingASPResearchReport报研willalsogivedevelopersmoreconfidencetolaunchmoreprojectsin2Q2023amidthereleaseofdampened告demand券Equity证RealestateinvestmentsremainedrelativelyresilientInJan-Feb2023realestateinvestmentdeclinedby46YoYnarrowerthanthatof95YoYdeclinein2022ConsideringthestillweaklandinvestmentswecontributethemainreasontostrongpropertyconstructionwhichcanbelinkedtotheclimbingdataofpropertycompletionInJan-Feb2023theGFAofpropertycompletionincreasedby80YoYConsideringthattheensuringconstructioncompletionpolicyisgoingtolastforalongertimeweexpectGFAcompletiondatatokeepmomentumwhichshouldbeastrongsupporttopropertyinvestmentdatain2023TaSectorviewWesuggestinvestorstoaccumulatepropertysectorstocksaftertherecentpullbackespeciallyaftersomeprofitwarningswereannouncedbybignamesegCountryGardendisclosednegativeprofitwarningon13b房Mar2023Webelievemarketsentimentwillimprovethroughcontinuedfundamentalimprovementsandmorel地demand-sidelooseningpolicyMeanwhilewesuggestinvestorstostaymoreselectiveonstockpicksWestill产erecommendSOEsandqualityprivatenamesinthesectorconsidering1expectedsolidFY2022resultsand2行financialedgeforqualityexpansionAmongqualitynameswerecommendLongfor00960HKGemdale600383业LSHPolyDevelopment600048SHandVanke-H02202HKPropertySectore2023年1-2月全国房地产销售金额与去年大致持平国家统计局2023年3月15日公布了今年1-2月份的房地产销售数据不f出意外考虑到最近在一些高线城市出现的地产回暖我们在今年1-2月份的房地产销售数据上也看到了复苏的迹象2023年1-2t月份全国房地产销售面积录得同比36的小幅下跌2022年全年则同比下跌243在销售金额方面今年1-2月的全国商品房销售金额复苏更为明显同比仅下跌01我们相信1-2月份明显提升的商品房销售单价人民币10209元平方米同M比升37也证实了我们之前的观点即楼市迎来回暖在一些高线城市楼市率先复苏展望近期我们认为楼市将在二线城a市以及一些低线城市迎来较强的复苏考虑到1政策松绑将在这些城市持续深入以及2许多在2022年由出险房企处置的地r产项目可能在今年二季度推出以推动销售g房地产新开工数据继续下跌但跌幅有所收窄2023年头两个月房地产新开工面积继续下跌同比跌幅为94但是相较于i2022年全年的394同比下跌已经大幅收窄在我们看来有两个主要因素将推动房地产新开工数据在接下来几个月持续变好n第一个因素是来自持续盘活的中小开发商手中持有的不良土地项目第二个因素是去年由地方城投以及建筑公司获取的大量土地项目逐渐进入建设开发周期我们相信销售的复苏以及住房销售价格的提升也会给开发商带来更多信心抓住压抑需求的集中SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4SeethelastpagSourceNBSTableTableREInvestmentREUnsoldPropertiesCompletionUnderConstructionNewStartsASPSalesVolumeSalesValueYoYChangesREUnsoldPropertiesmnsqmCompletionmnsqmUnderNewmnStartssqmASPRMBsqmSalesVolumemnsqmSalesValueRMBbnPropertyActivitiesefoInvestmentRMBbn保利发展财年业绩以及们年行业观点时间的政策重点我们认为房地产竣工面积将继续保持势头因此也给在继续上升的竣工数字上有所反映在相对收窄房地产释放窗口期在rdisclaimer1也Constructionmnsqm3建议投资人在月NBSGuotaiJunanJunanGuotai开发投资数据相对保持韧性13日发布负面盈利预警我们认为市场情绪仍然会因持续的基本面改善和更多的需求端刺激政策而改善与此同时p600048SH考虑到较弱的土地投资我们认为房地产开发投资得以继续保持韧性的主要原因是来自较强的房地产施工建设这也我们建议投资人roperty22023选择International更多融资优势下持续有质量的增长年第二季度新开工并推出更多楼盘d标和万科企业ataata的上收集s更为审慎ummary房地产14069156144229598959810007357154567931285872810137465015015202371902202HK我们仍然推荐板块2023P年1025810258年1117633210122534822106110617590166974761573尤其是在最近板块一些重大房企公布盈利预警有所回撤之后例如碧桂园-6961328101601626951月份-2月房地产竣工面积同比增加了优质龙头中我们推荐龙湖集团行业153109801098013370房地产开发投资数据同比下跌44137221015101578151787789216947030705677017017589内的央国企或者民营优质龙头考虑到1101202612026149977817210712222822382232093873717179552130180185249362023TablePageHeader年的房地产开发投资数据带来支撑13219132191597349012289388938227293101716992687856665019019498959804614144141441736149122200960HK92689268224498601761考虑到保交付仍然是接下来较长700137592687020020499912也较1114他们稳健的即将发布的202214760147601013918193金地集团1122210141014975419891794442452281948021021510年全年的同比下跌10015039424326713290132901333172321052022202290509050120698141358564862600383SHProperty10209102092M2M57449436011491367136775021545803765513213615195PagePage2023202222Sector33我2ofof4n2argiMbleTa1nigraMelbaTFlashNot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