金融市场最近的风险事件显著弱化了市场的加息预期，并减小了对金属价格的压力。最近硅谷银行的破产提升了投资者对金融市场稳定性的担忧，且最新的失业率提升了投资者对美国经济可能衰退的担忧。
　　铝库存下降低于市场预期，铝需求前景不明。中国原铝的总产能在4,000万吨附近波动且只有较小的变动。铝加工企业的产能利用率恢复缓慢，下游需求前景仍然不明。
　　风险事件可能弱化市场的加息预期，对铜价的压力可能会减弱。最终的利率水平可能会低于此前的预期且美国货币政策拐点可能会提前到来。在基本面方面，由于铜加工行业的产能利用率稳步上升，国内对铜的需求稳步改善。
　　我们维持有色金属行业“跑赢大市”的投资评级。我们推荐中国宏桥（01378 HK）、兴发铝业（00098 HK）和紫金矿业（02899 HK）。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇行业报告有色金属行业8675523976671yongguogtjascomhk15March2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateExpectationsonMoreInterestRateHikes行Weakens业双周报加息预期弱化Recenteventsinfinancialmarketssignificantlyweakenedmarket报expectationsonmoreinterestratehikesandreducedpressureonRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告SectorReportmetalpricesTherecentfalloutofSiliconValleyBankraisedinvestorMaintainedconcernonthestabilityoffinancialmarketsandthelatestunemploymentdataraisedconcernsofpossibleeconomicrecessionintheUS评级跑赢大市维持Aluminuminventorydeclinewaslowerthanmarketexpectationand2aluminumdemandprospectsarestillunclearChinastotalprimaryNonferrousmetalssectorperformancealuminumproductioncapacitywasabout40milliontonsandonlychanged有色金属行业表现slightlyProductioncapacityutilizationrateofaluminumsemi-fabricating1400returncompaniesresumedslowlydownstreamdemandprospectsremainunclear1200Recenteventsmayweakenmarketexpectationsofmoreinterestrate1000800hikespressureoncopperpricemaydeclineThefinalinterestratelevel600maybelowerthanpreviousexpectationsandtheturningpointinUS400证monetarypolicymayarriveearlierOnthefundamentalssidedomestic200告demandforcopperisimprovingsteadilyascapacityutilizationrateofthe00券-200copperfabricationindustryisincreasingsteadily研报-400-600WemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetals究究-800sectorWerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminiumMar22May22Jul22Sep22Nov22Jan23Mar23ResearchReportcopperaluminumzincleadnickeltin报研00098HKandZijinMining02899HK告金融市场最近的风险事件显著弱化了市场的加息预期并减小了对金属价格的压力最近SourceBloomberg券Equity硅谷银行的破产提升了投资者对金融市场稳定性的担忧且最新的失业率提升了投资者对证美国经济可能衰退的担忧铝库存下降低于市场预期铝需求前景不明中国原铝的总产能在4000万吨附近波动且只有较小的变动铝加工企业的产能利用率恢复缓慢下游需求前景仍然不明风险事件可能弱化市场的加息预期对铜价的压力可能会减弱最终的利率水平可能会低于此前的预期且美国货币政策拐点可能会提前到来在基本面方面由于铜加工行业的产T能利用率稳步上升国内对铜的需求稳步改善我们维持有色金属行业跑赢大市的投资评级我们推荐中国宏桥01378HK兴a发铝业00098HK和紫金矿业02899HKb有色l金e属行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8See54321RiskHKAluminiumXingfa00098ZijinWInisfundamentalpointturningtheandexpectationspreviousthanlowerbemaylevelrateSVBsignificantlyoffalloutrecessionTheeconomicdeclineCopper12declineinventoryaproductsextrusionaluminumwirelunclearremainPDemancapacityproductionMongoliaInnerinproductioncommencedcapacityproductionaluminumprimarynewwhileareasothertotransferredLtonsmillionProductioncutinYunnanProvincesideSupplyAluminumpricesreducedhasInvestorsandexpectationsconcerninvestorraisedreduceTheUpdateSectorastweekcapacityutilizationrateofofrateutilizationcapacityweekastthGrowthofNewberatevehiclesmaylowermarketthanenergyexpectationsConflictRussiabetweenandUkrainecontinuemayroductioncapacityroductionvestmentsuggestionvestmentemaintainmaintaineincreasingChinasmacroReservesTheinterestrateFederalhikeDe7ownstreamlassrecentmilliontonsand01tonsmilliontdsidedpagThepressureonmetalpricesRecentRecentareworriedareeInventorydeclinefoseventseventssteadilyandpressureonmetalpricesmaydeclinemaypricesmetalonpressureandrateunemploymentFebruaryrsidedomesticdemanddomesticsideOutperformofpartasdecreasedProvinceShandonginoutputaluminumprimaryweekastdisclaimerconsumptiondemandPeconomiceconomicroductioncapacityutilizationrateofleadingaluminumfabricatingcompanieswasup0upwasfabricatingcompaniesaluminumleadingofrateutilizationcapacityroductioneventsmayweakenmarketexpectationmarketweakenmayeventswasslowwasttlofrpyolmlyetoebyroseemploymentpayrollnonfarmotalwasinutilizationrateutilizationaboutfinancialmarketssignificantlyweakenedsignificantlymarketsfinancials6saroundtonsmillionweek398lasttonsdecreasedwhich36000weekonfinancialstabilityBesidestheBesidesstabilityfinancialonmilliontonsrespectivelytonsmilliongrowthSMMcommercialinventoryofaluminumaluminumbarbaraluminumaluminumofinventorycommercialSMMinvestmentratingforratinginvestmentthethanlowermarketexpectationandwasaluminumrisksofeconomicrecessionHencenegativeimpactoninvestmentdemandforbasemetalsmetalsbasefordemandinvestmentonimpactnegativeHencerecessioneconomicofrisksratemaybelowerthanmarketbemaylowerthanmarketexpectationsratewasconfirmedandactualprimaryaluminumofaluminumsemialuminumofMining02899HKTherecentfalloutofSiliconValleyBankrecycledaluminumwasup10pptsto504whilecapacityutilizationrateofaluminumofrateutilizationcapacitywhile504toppts10upwasaluminumrecycledmayforluminumplateplateluminumcopperbeintheinmaybemaylowerthanPisthetheUShigherhigherthanexpectationsimprovingraisenonferrouswashigherthanhigherwas-fabrexpectationdChinaseconomicmomeconomicChinassheeticatingcompaniesresumedslowlyresumedcompaniesicatinginvestorconcerninvestorsFebruaryunemploymentrateunemploymentFebruarysteadilyascapacassteadilyofny1ilohcwsoetamreexpectationmarketthanlowerwaswhichmillion031onlyandmetalsmoresmarketexpectationmarketfoilaluminummarketexpectationsmarketsectorhikerateinterestsinSVBignitedworriesinthefinancialmarketsandonfinancialstabilityAsaresultthefinalinterestfinalresulttheaAsfinancialstabilityonTablePageHeaderSmntrplcaarverirntheOnearlierarrivemaypolicymonetaryUSoutputoutputcutinYunnanProvincewasaround062ityutilizationrat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