研究报告全文：期货研究报告商品研究当下市场的驱动月度油脂油料行情回顾及展望王真军联系电话139240661252023年03月02日wangzhenjuncmschinacomcn执业资格号Z001028901市场核心观点目录02市场逻辑推演contents03市场价格的反馈及观点我们的核心观点从步入临界到选择向下数据来源文化财经招商期货市场逻辑推演前期步入临界观点是基于核心因子拉尼娜天气数据来源USDA招商期货市场逻辑推演拉尼娜导致了阿根廷产量不断下调最新预期减产至3350万吨阿根廷大豆产量千吨布交所产量预估千吨60000600005100051000510005100051000510004950049500480005000045500500004100041000410003800040000400003350030000300002000020000100001000000May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-2312月1月2月2月2月数据来源USDABuenosAiresGrainExchange招商期货市场逻辑推演拉尼娜导致了阿根廷产量不断下调最新预期减产至3350万吨阿根廷大豆优良率202119202122222318191718807060504030201008-Dec22-Dec5-Jan19-Jan2-Feb16-Feb2-Mar16-Mar30-Mar13-Apr数据来源USDABuenosAiresGrainExchange招商期货市场逻辑推演站在年度的视角全球从过剩回到了平衡年数据来源USDA招商期货市场逻辑推演站在半年度的视角23年上半年供给仍是大幅恢复数据来源USDA招商期货市场逻辑推演2月底USDA农业展望美豆新作面积持平而谷物预期增面积数据来源USDA招商期货市场逻辑推演利润驱动利于谷物扩面积Cost-of-productionforecastsformajorUSfieldcrops2022F-2023F1CornSoybeansWheatCottonRicePeanutsSorghumOatsBarleyItem2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023F2022F2023FDollarsperplantedacreOperatingcostsSeed94119752627465011471152484988806913794681186812298139914501877194520732148Fertilizer221736211895503536583178108120541175118041175871270812388699068147409722383128103Chemicals40033718442341081955181687028083111801038415204141223483323585779626302443Customoperations3252526111408145615401593292830281048210841818984691957202410621098665688Fuellubeandelectricity47884006243920401874156855504643123011029180126702172014393148263425472131Repairs413342113422348729953052529453946055616970887222306331213168322833443407Othervariableexpenses40300310010010860899350972414761526084087017018241249279289Interestonoperatingcapital219462110233086180246522323673297622088184083174093195Totaloperatingcosts468464598123580231911832517930526215195068993669386344961910187171828417846173481994419404AllocatedoverheadHiredlabor594617566587467484231223993794393724552547467484280291480498Opportunitycostofunpaidlabor3409353619782053199220672325241296461000866356884187519456744699718341903Capitalrecoveryofmachineryandequipment171071663814422140261312912769184691796218969184492376123109140161363114839144321460214202Opportunitycostoflandrentalrate1652516525156711567162806280869286921529115291100211002157725772101911019179197919Taxesandinsurance140414241375139572673795296521012131293129731077109374775812591277Generalfarmoverhead227723202174221510881108165816903231329357885898166616971616164622112253Totalallocatedcosts413164106036186359472368223445344083412053033531085159151432248732462334418343162830528051Totalcostslisted8816287041597665913842006413758702986070122027120047115040113342435894290752264516634824947455Yield1733618153495552018546484914Price67063114301492900900NetValue27989275041108718473-1752852数据来源USDA招商期货市场逻辑推演美国主要农作物步入内卷数据来源USDA招商期货市场逻辑推演新作库存预期环比增加151616171718181919202021212222232324种植面积千英亩827008340090200892007610083400872008750087500收获面积818008270089500876007490082600863008630086700起初库存191197302438909525257274225产量百万蒲氏耳392642964412442835524216446542764510进口242222141520161515总供应414145154736488044764761473845654750压榨188618992055209221652141220422302310出口193621742134174816822266215819902025食用消费000000000种用残值12214010913110497102120126总需求394442134298397139514504446443404461美豆库存197302438909525257274225289库存消费比507210222913357615265大豆单产480519493505474510517495520数据来源USDA招商期货市场价格的反馈基差先行巴西3月基差美分吨巴西大豆收割进度2016201720182019202020212022Ave-520172018201914020202021202220231201009010080807060605040403020200101-Aug1-Sep1-Oct1-Nov1-Dec1-Jan1-Feb024-Jan7-Feb21-Feb6-Mar20-Mar3-Apr17-Apr1-May数据来源AGRUAL招商期货市场价格的反馈及观点高估值选择向下数据来源文化财经招商期货风险点关注天气扰动数据来源NOAA招商期货国内豆二价格的反馈及观点跟随外盘成本端下行数据来源文华财经招商期货国内豆粕价格的反馈及观点跟随外盘成本端下行数据来源文华财经招商期货国内豆粕逻辑推演近端处于宽松水平沿海大豆库存千吨沿海豆粕库存千吨141515161617161717181819140017181819192019202021212220212122222312008000222370001000600080050006004000300040020002001000008-Oct8-Nov8-Dec8-Jan8-Feb8-Mar8-Apr8-May8-Jun8-Jul8-Aug8-Sep8-Oct8-Nov8-Dec8-Jan8-Feb8-Mar8-Apr8-May8-Jun8-Jul8-Aug8-Sep数据来源国家粮油信息中心招商期货国内豆粕逻辑推演远端预期库存继续上升NationalimportSoyas-d202220232023228In000MtsOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep合计同比CrushingDistributionEstCarry-in69273763361330734393439335934893LoanFromReserveImportdataoflastweekImport4136735010560822066005800820011000TotalSupplya1106311113141731129310993101931179315893供给增量CrushEst72007400900058006500650068008200Human100100100100100100100100ConsumptionReturnTo20001000ReserveTotalDemandb730075001110069006600660069008300需求变化600130080017001750300500700同比Carry-outa-37633613307343934393359348937593bStockUsage1615102320172228Days数据来源招商期货国内豆粕市场价格反馈基差开始加速下行产业悲观豆粕基差元吨23年5月盘面大豆压榨利润元吨0广东山东华东华北3-Nov13-Nov23-Nov3-Dec13-Dec23-Dec2-Jan12-Jan22-Jan1-Feb11-Feb21-Feb1200-1001000-200800-300600400-400200-5000-60015-Dec22-Dec29-Dec5-Jan12-Jan19-Jan26-Jan2-Feb9-Feb16-Feb23-Feb数据来源招商期货