铜：国内权益市场大幅走强，工业品普遍上涨，昨日伦铜收涨1.13%至9111美元/吨，沪铜主力收至69950元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存增加675至65500吨，注销仓单比例提高，Cash/3M贴水26美元/吨。国内方面，周末社会库存小幅增加，昨日上海地区现货贴水扩至80元/吨，市场货源相对充裕，贸易商拿货积极性尚可。进出口方面，昨日铜现货进口亏损扩至700元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价持平。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差微扩至1680元/吨，废铜替代优势微升。价格层面，海外供应端扰动频发，加之海外交易所库存处于低位、国内需求预期回暖，铜价支撑较强。但国内库存累积及废铜替代增多的背景下，短期铜价上行高度或有限，地缘关系恶化也可能成为价格上行的阻力。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：69000-70300元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230221铜国内权益市场大幅走强工业品普遍上涨昨日伦铜收涨113至9111美元吨沪铜主力收至69950元吨产业层面昨日LME库存增加675至65500吨注销仓单比例提高Cash3M贴水26美元吨国内方面周末社会库存小幅增加昨日上海地区现货贴水扩至80元吨市场货源相对充裕贸易商拿货积极性尚可进出口方面昨日铜现货进口亏损扩至700元吨左右洋山铜有色金属小组溢价持平废铜方面昨日国内精废价差微扩至1680元吨废铜替代优势微升价格层面海外供应端扰动频发加之海外交易所库存处于低位国内需求预期回暖铜价支撑较强但国内吴坤金库存累积及废铜替代增多的背景下短期铜价上行高度或有限地缘关系恶化也可能成为价格上从业资格号F3036210行的阻力今日沪铜主力运行区间参考69000-70300元吨交易咨询号Z00159240755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝沪铝主力合约报收18775元吨截止昨日下午三点涨幅132SMM现货A00铝报均价王震宇18690元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-100铝期货仓单217910吨较前一日下降1223吨LME铝库从业资格号F3082524存585750吨减少6200吨20沪铝主力合约报收18775元吨截止昨日下午三点涨幅1320755-23375132SMM现货A00铝报均价18690元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-100铝期货仓单217910吨较前一wangzywkqhcn日下降1223吨LME铝库存585750吨减少6200吨2023年2月20日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1233万吨较上周四库存增加17万吨较去年2月份历史同期库存增加152万吨较春节前119日库存累计增加488万吨本周一电解铝锭库存总量约1233万吨周度来看仍是累库钟靖从业资格号F3035267趋势但增幅放缓2023年1月份31天国内电解铝产量3418万吨环比下降06同比增长0755-2337512567日均产量环比下降642吨至1103万吨日云南地区电解铝减产幅度超预期带动铝价强势zhongjwkqhcn反弹沪铝预计震荡偏强运行主力合约参考运行区间18500-19000锡沪锡主力合约报收211820元吨下跌024截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单下降758吨现为7586吨LME库存下降30吨现为3075吨长江有色锡1的平均价为208000元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收193500元吨1月份国内精炼锡产量为11990吨较去年12月份环比减少2461同比减少11771月国内精炼锡产量实际表现低于预期加工费持续走低压制冶炼厂生产意愿沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间210000-220000镍周一LME镍库存减120吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格涨沪镍主力合约涨069国内基本面方面周一现货价格报204500210600元吨俄镍现货对03合约升水降至5150元吨金川镍现货升水7350元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口盈亏平衡附近短期淡季弱需求现实下国内供应边际增长过剩压力不减镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持平稳增长趋势综合来看季节性需求淡季继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍实际基本面不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存再度累库需求弱现实和经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内产业链需求回升拐点对原料价格支撑中期关注中国和印尼中间品和镍板新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年2月20日日频数据2023年2月21日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜655006751370020922600242009789913108719942024050458550769768779927铝5857506200134025228838002914167565217910122347208733058020776767810820锌294753756300213738501214132845547229281894511953102807427478242613铅2497525535021422997721653835399318592125777287135207057108533205镍4505412027366072100032831042141835212109456322023年2月20日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期68555USDCNY即期685931个月美元LIBOR459133个月美元LIBOR491532023年2月21日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价3000002000065005300009000048000080000250000550015000430000450070000380000200000100003500330000600001500005000250028000050000230000100000150040000018000050030000130000500005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-072022-092021-042021-052021-062021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价250000070140000350440012000030060390020000001000002505020080000340015000001504060000100290040000100000030502000024002000500000-5019001020000-1000040000-15014002023-012021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-02SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002022-012022-062022-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112023-012023-02SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002022-062022-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112023-012023-02SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002500020017000180000200001600001600020000010015000140000100001500001200001500005000140001000000-10080000100000500013000-200600001000012000500001500040000-300110002000020000025000-4001000002021-082022-112021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-122023-012023-02镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价5700030000060800020005200060004700025000050150040004200010002000004020003700005003200015000030270002000022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-1500沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90060009001000400008508502000-10000800800-2000-2000750-3000-4000750-4000-6000700-5000700-8000650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950850-1000900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800750-4000750-4000-5000700700-5000-6000650650-7000600-60002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02