周度产业链价格总览：盘面继续走弱，坑口补跌，产业链各利润结构修复。月间结构冲高回落，内地反馈一般，外盘跌幅不大，进口倒挂缩小。

研究报告全文：甲醇产业链数据周报伊朗接近回归关注反套机会简版戴一帆从业资格证号F3046357投资咨询证号Z0015428盘面继续走弱坑口补跌产业链各利润结构修复月间结构冲高回落内地反馈一般周度产业链价格总览外盘跌幅不大进口倒挂缩小期货合约今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌价差今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌01合约25842611-272703-1191-5价差12-41641-2905合约25722615-432662-905-9价差5605645209合约25162615-992658-1429-1价差-684-72-45-23国内市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌南线21802240-602025155鲁南25102610-100250010北线21352230-95204095河北24302480-5024255关中23402360-202160180山西23752425-50232055河南25552610-55247580华南264026400261030鲁北24552500-452510-55太仓2695268510264550国际市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌CFR中国323325-231325975CFR印度3075320-125335-275CFR东南亚3745376-153895-15FOB鹿特丹333338-5313251975CFR日韩3693690371-2FOB美湾美分加仑110510825NANA下游价格今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌乙烯美金93587560765170MEG416040441164219-59丙烯美金990995-5890100EO680067001006100700丁二烯美金1240118060930310醋酸29253000-754219-1294PE8200820008050150甲醛1200115050980220PP79008000-1007700200二甲醚38003930-1304120-32001PVCNANANANANAMTBE69507050-1006800150持仓成交甲醇持仓量单边计算甲醇成交量1605001401204001003008060200402010000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇纸货成交量3530252015105002202120222023区域价格区域价格汇总太仓价格35004500400030003500300025002500200020001500100015002022-09-282022-10-282022-11-282022-12-282023-01-28太仓北线关中山西河南河北鲁北广东2020202120222023北线价格鲁北价格45004500400040003500350030003000250025002000200015001500100010000320202021202220232020202120222023月差基差6505年区间6505年区间5505504505年均值5年均值4503502201基差2201-22052503502301基差2301-230515025050150-507173183092910291128122850-150-250-5091101103111301230-350-15040010005年区间5年区间8005年均值3005年均值6002205基差2002205-22092305基差2305-2309400100200011131313314300-1001111211231130229330429-200-2005年区间5年区间805505年均值5年均值402109基差2109-220135002209基差515312209-2301630730829-40150-80-120-5031331430530629729828-16004-250-200利润情况山东煤制成本内蒙古煤制利润51004800900460070043007004100500380036002003003300310010028002600-300-10021002300-3001600-8001800-5002021-09-062021-10-062021-11-062021-12-062022-01-062022-02-062022-03-062022-04-062022-05-062022-06-062022-07-062022-08-062022-09-062022-10-062022-11-062022-12-062023-01-062023-02-062021-09-062021-10-062021-11-062021-12-062022-01-062022-02-062022-03-062022-04-062022-05-062022-06-062022-07-062022-08-062022-09-062022-10-062022-11-062022-12-062023-01-062023-02-06利润右轴北线市场价内蒙古煤制成本利润右轴山东中部市场价山东煤制成本焦炉气制利润西南天然气制利润4800100043007004300800380050038006003300300330040010028002800200-1002300-300230001800-5001800-2002021-10-062021-11-062021-12-062022-01-062022-02-062022-03-062022-04-062022-05-062022-06-062022-10-062022-11-062022-12-062023-01-062023-02-062022-07-062022-08-062022-09-062021-09-06052021-11-062022-01-062022-02-062022-03-062022-06-062022-07-062022-08-062022-09-062022-10-062023-01-062023-02-062021-09-062021-10-062021-12-062022-04-062022-05-062022-11-062022-12-06利润右轴川渝市场价西南天然气制成本利润右轴河北市场价河北焦炉气制成本开工率甲醇全国开工率西北甲醇开工率8090857580707565706560605555201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇非一体化开工率2023甲醇日产检修预测7527702665256024552350222120062020202120222023202311202321202331202341202351外盘价格外盘结构中国CFR40060050035040030030020025010002022-10-262022-11-022022-11-092022-11-162022-11-232022-11-302022-12-072022-12-142022-12-212022-12-282023-01-042023-01-112023-01-182023-01-252023-02-012023-02-082023-02-15鹿特丹FOB美湾FOB东南亚CFR日韩CFR台湾CFR印度CFR中国CFR20192020202120222023东南亚CFR美湾FOB美分加仑60018016050014040012010030080602004010020201920202021202220232019202020212022202307MTO开工率MTO开工率华东MTO开工率95100909085808070756070506560405530502020182019202020212022202320202021202220232023年MTO日耗加总14中原乙烯预计跟随河南能源重启鲁12西3月有重启可能兴兴停车预期在3-410月但是仍有较大的不确定性富德28月下有检修计划盛虹预计05前不会6重启42020231120232120233120234120235120236108沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总MTO利润宁波富德综合利润浙江兴兴MTO利润1500200010001500500100050000-500-500-1000-1000-1500-1500-2000-2000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023大唐多伦MTP利润联泓MTO综合利润400050003000400020003000100002000-10001000-20000-3000-4000-100009201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023传统下游开工率甲醇传统下游加权开工率MTBE开工率556560鲁南甲醛开工率恢复明显整体50555045传统下游复苏表现不错454040353530253020201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸开工率二甲醚开工率DMF开工率105309080952570852060751550654010553045520201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醛开工率氯化物开工率甲缩醛开工率40902535802030702515206015105010554003000102018201920202021202220232020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醛甲醛价格甲醛成本2200210020001900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700华南华北山东201820192020202120222023甲醛利润甲醛月产量45050000035040000025030000015020000050100000-500-1502021-03-312021-04-302021-05-312021-06-302021-07-312021-08-312021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302021-12-312022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-07-312022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312022-06-302022-08-312022-09-302022-05-31011201820192020202120222023甲醛月产量二甲醚河南二甲醚价格河南二甲醚成本65006500600060005500550050005000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023河南二甲醚利润LPGDME与DME开工率相关性8001724600162240015202001401318-2001216-4001114-60010120910201911202011202111202211012201820192020202120222023LPGDMEDME开工率MTBE10000MTBE成本900085008000750070006500600055005000450040003500300025002017-08-312018-08-312019-08-312020-08-312021-08-312022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