消费弱势承压下落
　　①下游有一定的补库需求。虽然下游需求恢复仍需要时间，但在市场没有新的利空情况下，低库存水平恐难以持续，在3月份起拍卖稻谷前市场整体会更注重库存。
　　②当前属于进口偏少的时期。由于巴西二茬玉米的播种延迟以及美国内河的污染事件均会对海外进口的供应带来不确定性，而近段时间原本就是处于节后进口较少的时期，且缺乏进口利润。
　　总结：上周玉米出现反弹是以上因素造成的，而淀粉走势弱于玉米的原因在于下游需求当前并未出现实质性修复，因此淀粉加工利润仍将有进一步收缩的可能。
　　

研究报告全文：南华玉米淀粉周报20230219米粉价差恐将继续缩小南华研究院边舒扬Z0012647玉米淀粉周度综述本周总结上游下游饲料企业平均库存2967天周环比增加037天较去年同期下跌供应全国售粮进度为61较上期增加4较去年同期增加3空饲料养殖1826饲料企业波动不大但同比偏低多北方港口库存1929万吨同比减少44万吨当周北方港口下淀粉加工企业上周消化玉米3874万吨较前一周增加284万吨库存海量213万吨同比增加87万吨广东内贸库存295万吨较中淀粉深加工企业玉米库存4264万吨环比增加724呈现季节性回多上周减少16万吨外贸库存1335万吨较上周减少14万吨升向往期库存靠近进口美玉米累计出口给中国4057万吨本周出口至中国10吨多酒精酒精企业上周消化玉米3787万吨环比上调201万吨中近期现货保持坚挺期货跟随现货上扬基差本周出现较大玉米基差多淀粉期现5月基差收敛明显多收敛美玉米出口呈现增长态势截至2月9日当周美出口2223年美玉米多其他因素未来中国将增加巴西玉米的进口但整体量有限且周期偏长空度玉米13676万吨其中单周为6705万吨消费弱势承压下落下游有一定的补库需求虽然下游需求恢复仍需要时间但在市场没有新的利空情况下低库存水平恐难以持续在3月份起拍卖稻谷前市场整体会更注重库存观点当前属于进口偏少的时期由于巴西二茬玉米的播种延迟以及美国内河的污染事件均会对海外进口的供应带来不确定性而近段时间原本就是处于节后进口较少的时期且缺乏进口利润总结上周玉米出现反弹是以上因素造成的而淀粉走势弱于玉米的原因在于下游需求当前并未出现实质性修复因此淀粉加工利润仍将有进一步收缩的可能策略多玉米空淀粉技术分析玉米价格重新拉至120日均线附近市场重新转向多头上方2890附近存在一定压力淀粉反弹力度不及玉米上方仍有多条均线压制关注30日均线压制风险稻谷拍卖巴西二茬玉米播种进度美国内河污染影响力度反弹整体有限美玉米维持震荡多条均线交织暂无趋势玉米淀粉周度统计期货数据合约收盘价周涨跌涨跌幅备注现货数据价格周涨跌基差变化C01276521077锦州港28603091-129C05286867239蛇口港297020201-119玉米CC09283343154四平2730-10-39-89玉米主力286899345C2305潍坊28202051-119CS01309950164黑龙江29000-159-172CS05305967224吉林29800-79-172淀粉CSCS09312846149河北3100041-172淀粉主力3059172562CS2305山东31001041-172CBOT玉米玉米主力67775-3-044ZC2305期货价差数据价差周涨跌重点关注现货价差数据价差周涨跌01-05-103-46锦州港-蛇口港-11010玉米C05-093524玉米现货锦州港-四平1304009-016851锦州港-潍坊401001-0540-17黑龙江-吉林-800淀粉CS05-09-6921淀粉现货黑龙江-河北-200009-012918黑龙江-山东-200-10仓单数据仓单增减仓单数据仓单增减进口利润价格涨跌利润增减美西地区280441161516559-3615玉米59743-1024淀粉14045-50美湾地区27563190521369-2905加工利润利润增减玉米淀粉黑龙江-73-50港口当周增减库存当周增减吉林-83-48北方四港19290-1120企业库存98401680淀粉河北-62-73广东内贸2950-2340可售库存6214库存山东-85-85广东外贸13350848物理库存10316黑龙江-14712下游当周增减产量当周增减02酒精吉林-3209饲料企业2967037167全国2712011玉米淀粉期货玉米期货走势图淀粉期货走势图上周玉米期货上涨整体重心下300034002950移290033002850320028002750310027002650300026002900美玉米先跌后涨255025002800维持震荡格局玉米01玉米05玉米09淀粉01淀粉05淀粉09内外玉米价格对比玉米淀粉主力走势玉米淀粉反弹85031003200力度不及玉米80030003100玉米与淀粉价290075030002800差重新拉开7002700290065026002800250060027002400550230026005002200250003CBOT玉米大连玉米玉米主力玉米淀粉主力玉米价差3-5价差与19年和20年高度重合5-9价差与21年高度重合玉米1-5价差玉米5-9价差玉米9-1价差4010015020501000-20050-40-500-60-80-100-50-100-150-100-1201526313942212934455768728310110911212411312112921422231732541041842621722531232032841342142951552353161662471071872681181961718191101111121827101710251110111811261212122012281901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301玉米1-3价差玉米3-5价差玉米5-7价差6060804060402004020-20200-40-600-80-20-20-100-40-120-40-140-60-60-160-8091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251118115122129252122192263431131832541484154224291115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307玉米7-9价差玉米9-11价差玉米11-01价差80100406080302040601020400020-10-200-20-40-20-30-60-40-40-80-60-50313831532232945412419426535105175245316761462162851585155225296561261962673710717724731878148218287178715722729858128198269299916923930107101410211028041907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22092307-23091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22112309-23111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-23012311-2401玉米基差现货东北农户售粮节奏放缓收购主体增加港口收购价格上涨华北先涨后跌上周深加工到货量维持低位企业提价促收周初到货量迅速提升企业价格再次下调随着干粮增加饲料企业采购量普遍较好本周库存继续回升华中因北港涨价和期货表现强势销区粮商心态好转报价跟随上涨南方沿海及内陆销区玉米先跌后涨饲料企业滚动补库部分进口玉米签单到货饲料企业采购心态较为宽松基差近期基差呈现季节性回落期货强于现货玉米01基差玉米05基差玉米09基差400400400300300300200200200100100100000-100-100-100-200-200-200-300-300-30021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222锦州港-1901锦州港-2001锦州港-2101锦州港-1905锦州港-2005锦州港-2105锦州港-1909锦州港-2009锦州港-2109锦州港-2201锦州港-2301锦州港-2205锦州港-2305锦州港-2209锦州港-2309玉米03基差玉米07基差玉米11基差8006008006004006004002000400200-2002000-4000-200-600-400-800-200-600-1000-400-1200-800-600-1000-800-1200-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101锦州港-1903锦州港-2003锦州港-2103锦州港-1907锦州港-2007锦州港-2107锦州港-1911锦州港-2011锦州港-2111锦州港-2203锦州港-2303锦州港-2207锦州港-2307锦州港-2211锦州港-231105淀粉价差近月合约承压明显5月合约反弹令5-9价差有所上翘但预计仍呈现近弱远强格局淀粉1-5价差淀粉5-9价差淀粉9-1价差10020020015050150100100050050-50-500-100-100-50-150-150-200-100-200-250-15015263139-25042211012910934112451245711312112968214222723173258341041842621710172251025312111032011183281126413121242112204291228515523531616624710718726811819617181911011111218271901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301淀粉1-3价差淀粉3-5价差淀粉5-7价差804001006030050402002000100-50-200-40-100-100-60-200-80-150-100-300-20091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228111811512212925212219226343113183254148415422429101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307淀粉7-9价差淀粉9-11价差淀粉11-1价差15012020010010015080501006050040-50200-1000-50-150-20-100-40-200-150-60-250-80-200-300-100-250063138315322329454124194265351051752453167614621628515851552252965612619626737107177247318781482182871787157227298581281982692999169239301071014102110281907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-2301淀粉基差现货随着下游需求逐渐复苏市场信心有所恢复市场成交数量增加生产利润仍处于亏损状态且副产品趋势向下背景下上游企业挺价主产品意愿偏强基差期货价格波动较现货更大当前现货仍小幅升水05淀粉01基差淀粉05基差淀粉09基差100010001000800800800600600600400400400200200200000-200-200-200-400-400-400-60021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222潍坊-1901潍坊-2001潍坊-2101潍坊-2201潍坊-2301潍坊-1905潍坊-2005潍坊-2105潍坊-2205潍坊-2305潍坊-1909潍坊-2009潍坊-2109潍坊-2209潍坊-2309淀粉03基差淀粉07基差淀粉11基差150015001200100010001000800600500500400020000-500-200-400-1000-500-600-800-1000-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101潍坊-1903潍坊-2003潍坊-2103潍坊-2203潍坊-2303潍坊-1907潍坊-2007潍坊-2107潍坊-2207潍坊-2307潍坊-1911潍坊-2011潍坊-2111潍坊-2211潍坊-231107淀粉-玉米现米粉价差-绥化元吨1200淀粉-玉米价差波动不大仍处于200元吨出头100080060040020001148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230201820192020202120222023米粉价差-公主岭元吨米粉价差-潍坊元吨1200120010001000800800600600400400200200004899115663715611486371991152123115206177158121071141292263254227298269231221293113254226177298129231141152122265207158261071221118121610211230111812161230102120182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202308淀粉-玉米期盘面淀粉-玉米价差波动剧烈玉米反弹力度大于淀粉价差再度缩小明显淀粉-玉米01价差淀粉-玉米05价差淀粉-玉米09价差60070065060050060055040050050045030040040020030035030010020025001002006177159535541369287333884821384157769410161362511671973181282411791712992921022211431732941042251611552812762122071531572732782042021322532041342551953161262471873081182391692811312910131025111811301212122410111023111611281210122210101022111511271221190120012101220123011905200521052205230519092009210922092309淀粉-玉米03价差淀粉-玉米07价差淀粉-玉米11价差800700800700700600600600500500500400400400300300300200200200100100100001636899255749634536881142949118130211223318330716728821914926108121411423517529610622825116128316421620813918930115221328515527122510204151617181911011111211121121310121024112912111117122319032003210322032303190720072107220723071911201121112211231109玉米淀粉仓单玉米仓单略有回落淀粉仓单处于高位玉米仓单变化张玉米淀粉仓单变化张18000025000160000140000200001200001500010000080000100006000040000500020000001148566371991148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230102111181216123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023吉林云天营口百丰达孚锦州中粮贸易大连象屿仓库中粮贸易维维股份嘉吉投资浙江农发厦门象屿陕西粮农河北粮产京粮粮贸锦州港锦阳锦州良运港北良港中储辽宁总计化泰仓储库中孚库锦象库玉米仓单数量2003500700054710872765945295183200161271540213819300121659743本周增减-1000000-1300-110000000000-1024中粮生化北安象屿富锦象屿仓库山东中谷山东福洋诸城兴贸松原嘉吉辽宁益海山东福宽玉峰实业龙凤玉米黑龙江昊天益海富裕京粮龙江总计龙江生化生化淀粉仓单数量4800950640250020000105013406982100250012809958本周增减0000000000-500250012803730010CFCT持仓净多单CFTC净多单小幅增长美玉米上周先跌后涨CFTC非商业净多头变化内外玉米价格对比60000085031008003000500000750290040000070028006502700300000600260020000055025005002400100000450230004002200-100000-200000-300000CBOT玉米大连玉米2019-07-022020-07-022021-07-022022-07-02011进口利润目前进口季节性波动春节前后进口量较少美玉米出口至中国吨1200000中国玉米月度进口对比吨玉米淀粉月度进口对比千克4000000300000010000003500000250000030000008000002000000250000060000020000001500000150000010000004000001000000500000500000200000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月00901100111011201010102010301040105010601070108012018201920202021202220172018201920202021202218191920202121222223美玉米出口至中国吨玉米到岸完税价及利润变化250000003800400360020020000000340032000300015000000-20028002600-400100000002400-600220050000002000-800009011001110112010101020103010401050106010701080101218191920202121222223美西完税价美墨完税价美西利润美墨利润美玉米作物生长报告美玉米种植进度4月开始美玉米出芽率4月下旬开始美玉米优良率5月底开始美玉米抽丝率6月底开始1001009010090909085808080807070706075506060704050503065404020601030300552020第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周101050周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周123456780091011121314151617181920212223第第第第第第第第第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第第第第第第第第第第第第第第第五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值美玉米鼓粒率7月下旬开始美玉米干粒率8月初开始美玉米成熟率8月下旬开始美玉米收割进度9月中旬开始1001001001009090909080808080707070706060606050505050404040403030303020202020101010100000第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值013玉米售粮进度全国售粮进度东北地区售粮进度120120100100808060604040202000142538414953142538414953111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111711251211121912271117112512111219122716171718181919202021212222231617171818191920202121222223全国售粮进度为61较上期增加4较去年同期增加3东北售粮进度59环比增加5与去年同期持平014港口企业库存北方四港库存万吨广东港内贸库存万吨广东港外贸库存万吨55016014050014012045012010040010035080803006060250402004015020201000011111148484856565663636371717199999911511511512912912921221221222622622631131131132532532542242242252052052061761761771571571572972972981281281282682682692392392310710710711411411412212212210211021102111181118111812161216121612301230123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023主要深加工企业玉米库存万吨广东福建玉米淀粉物理库存万吨主要企业淀粉库存万吨7505000016014065045000120400005501004503500080300006035040250002502020000150015000114856637199114856637199115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122102111181216123010211118121612302018-08-102019-08-102020-08-102021-08-102022-08-1020192020202120222023广东四港福建四港201820192020202120222023北方四港库存继续回落广东港内贸库存处于高位广东港外贸库存小幅回升深加工企业库存上升已达到2020年水平015玉米淀粉物理库存近期小幅回落主要企业淀粉库存上升近期上升较慢但仍处于偏高水平玉米淀粉产量全国69家样本企业玉米淀粉产量变化万吨山东24家样本企业玉米淀粉产量万吨401635141230102586204152010112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812411233749516376881013102611211217123011212321422531832942051252361462571772881983091092110211412710131024111511261218122920202021202220232020202120222023玉米淀粉产量继续季节性回升回升较快主产区山东玉米淀粉产量季节性回升回升较快016玉米加工消费深加工企业玉米消费量季节性回升整体已经和2022年持平主要深加工企业玉米消费量万吨玉米淀粉企业玉米消费量万吨13075701206511060551005090454080357030111129364148566563717189949911412711512922221222631931132541442742251052352061861771471572772982281282691793092310711811412412210131026102111211118121712161230123020202021202220232020202120222023玉米酒精企业玉米消费量万吨氨基酸企业玉米消费量万吨4024223520301816251420121015801729364111657189942936411165718994222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822101310261121121712301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023饲料生猪全国饲料企业玉米库存天数43全国饲料企业玉米库存小幅回升整体处于偏低水平上周库存2967天41393735本周生猪出栏均价小幅反弹全国均价达到1479元公斤环比上涨512333129上周配合饲料价格与上周持平整体处于高位震荡2725玉米与生猪价格对比元吨配合饲料价格元公斤3000300004202950280002900260004002850240003802800220002750200003602700180002650160003402600140003202550120002500100003002021-02-242021-03-242021-05-242021-08-242021-09-242021-10-242022-02-242022-03-242022-08-242022-10-242023-01-242021-04-242021-06-242021-07-242021-11-242021-12-242022-01-242022-04-242022-05-242022-06-242022-07-242022-09-242022-11-242022-12-242021-09-232021-11-232022-02-232021-10-232021-12-232022-01-232022-03-232022-04-232022-05-232022-06-232022-07-232022-08-232022-09-232022-10-232022-11-232022-12-232023-01-23玉米锦州港国标二等价商品猪出栏价育肥猪配合饲料蛋鸡配合饲料肉鸡配合饲料018加工利润玉米制淀粉利润玉米制乙醇利润2502000200150015010001005005000-500-50-1000-100-1500-150-2000-2002020-02-202020-04-202020-06-202020-08-202020-10-202020-12-202021-02-202021-04-202021-06-202021-08-202021-10-202021-12-202022-02-202022-04-202022-06-202022-08-202022-10-202022-12-20河北黑龙江吉林山东黑龙江吉林河南玉米制淀粉利润小幅回落当前亏损扩大玉米制乙醇利润小幅亏损019