研究报告全文：MN14Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateXiaomi1810HK2023InvestorDayAlleyesonprofitabilityandsmartEVbusinessupsideTargetPriceHK1473WeattendedXiaomis2023InvestorDayinBeijinglastweekMgmttargetedtoPreviousTPHK1473maintainhealthyprofitabilitylevelwhilebalancinggrowthThestrategicfocusUpDownside126remainsthesmartEVbusinesswithlaunchschedulein1H24EKeytakeawaysCurrentPriceHK1308included1FY23EsmartphoneshipmenttostayatFY22levelwithpotentialupsideonsharegain2EVbusinessRDspendingwillincreasetoRMB75-ChinaTechnology80bninFY23EvsRMB3bninFY223AIoToverseasexpansionremainskeyAlexNGgrowthdriverwithmoreinnovativeSKUs4Overseasinternetrevenuereached85239000881alexngcmbicomhkanewmilestoneandexpectgamingrecoveryduetopolicyrelaxationandadvertisingheadwindsduetomacroweaknessLookingaheadwebelievetheLilyYANGPhDworstislikelyoverforXiaomisearningsdeclineandwebelieveearnings85239163716recoveryin1H23EandEVupsidewillbemajorpositivecatalystsforthestocklilyyangcmbicomhkMaintainBUYwithTPofHK1473basedon24xFY23EPEClaudiaLIUclaudialiucmbicomhkConservativeoutlookonFY23EsmartphoneshipmentMgmtguidedaflattishorslightlytrendingupsmartphoneshipmentforFY23EIn4Q22StockDataXiaomissmartphonemarketsharedeclinedmainlyduetoweaknessinMktCapHKmn2660734Avg3mthstoHKmn114IndiaChinamarketMgmtstatedthatprofitabilityisthebusinesspriorityfor52wHighLowHK1660845smartphonebusinessinIndiaconsideringpolicyheadwindsInallweareTotalIssuedSharesmn203420positiveonXiaomismartphonespremiumizationstrategypositiveprogressSourceFactSetinchanneldestockingandsharegainpotentialinemergingmarketsShareholdingStructureLinBin86SmartEVbusinesstorampupin1H24EwithhigherRDspendingSmartMobileHoldingsLtd86MgmtguidedRDspendingofRMB75-80bnforsmartEVbusinessinSourceHKExFY23EcomparedtoRMB30bninFY22ThelaunchscheduleremainsSharePerformanceunchangedin1H24EandwearepositiveonXiaomisAbsoluteRelativeSmartphoneAIoTEVstrategybenefitingfromunderstandingof1-mth9299consumerelectronicsmarketssupplychainmanagementandsynergies3-mth32707acrossproductlines6-mth13551SourceFactSetTheworstisoverwithEVbusinessupsideMaintainBUYWebelieve12-mthPricePerformancetheworstisoverforXiaomisearningsdeclineandrecoverywillbedrivenbyChinareopeningandhealthyinventorylevelinChinaIndiaMaintainBUYwithTPofHK1473basedon240xFY23EPECatalystsincludesmartEVprogressproductlaunchandmarketsharegainEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ESourceFactSetRevenueRMBmn245866328309279547290990338541YoYgrowth19433514941163AdjustednetprofitRMBmn13006422039582877131531147317EPSAdjustedRMB054088033053059ConsensusEPSRMBnana036048061PEx174268341215192PBx2938212018Yield0000000000ROE198148126276Netgearing604960713843627SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANT1DISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk14Feb2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithTPofHK1473126upsideOurTPofHK1473isbasedonsame24xFY23EPECurrentvaluationat160xFY23EPEiscloseto1-sdbelow3-yraverageat159xandweviewrisk-rewardasattractiveCatalystsincludeproductlaunchstrongershipmentsharegaininternetrevenuerecoveryandsmartEVprogressFigure1PeersvaluationMarketCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EHK-listedXiaomi1810HKBUY417761311471234121521206191SunnyOptical2382HKHOLD13952999963-43692604237115144AACTech2018HKHOLD3026198154-2226916609093556BYDE285HKHOLD7635266204-2332719421196499FITHonTeng6088HKBUY19502118-121039207076974Tongda698HKBUY180010252483601012330Qtech1478HKBUY77952581223196111048106TKGroup2283HKBUY175173410540320707186207Average24315216155986SmartphoneAppleAAPLUSNR23892721510NANA24725043243116081627Lenovo992HKNR1013566NANA53562015444319Samsung005930KSNR294018629000NANA117262131211447LGElec066570KSNR137361072000NANA10710410099486Average1072000131168119117565520IoTSkyworth751HKNR155147NANA906305053535Hisense600060CHNR2956154NANA119104111196104Midea000333CHNR53719524NANA1211092522214204Gree000651CHNR28622347NANA76691715228222Average101861513143142SourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure212MforwardPEbandFigure312MforwardPBbandSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE214Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue205839245866328309279547290990338541Costofgoodssold177285209114270048232338238628278094Grossprofit285543675258261472095236260446Sellingexpense103781453920981213702171725391Adminexpense310437464739493050165417RDexpense7493925613167152611610916927Otherincome1266643827752752752GainlossonfinancialassetsatFVTPL38131317381326228800800Investmentgainloss6721381275669251251EBIT1176024035260291752956712759NetInterestincomeexpense40216411612699276276Foreignexchangegainloss22637225801255156156Others000000Pre-taxprofit1216321633244171053984313034Incometax20601321513461012161629Minorityinterest594356563933Netprofit1010320313192831663862611405Adjustednetprofit11532130062203982881315314732Netdividends000000BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets137539176283185851152211190111186876Cashequivalents259205475223512298973705449481Accountreceivables196721908023095104192307814223Inventories325854167152398250484313136324Prepayment198371618219852198521985219852STbankdeposits215231759931041310413104131041FinancialassetsatFVTPL164632237630910309103091030910Othercurrentassets153846235045504550455045Non-currentassets4609077397107040111250114044117083PPE699263066965111741396817007Deferredincometax128320111662166216621662InvestmentinJVsassos93011278210231102311023110231Intangibles167242665579557955795579FinancialassetsatFVTPL206793521550114501145011450114Othernon-currentassets61631681732490324903249032490Totalassets183629253680292892263461304155303958Currentliabilities9218110792711572786922118989107387Short-termborrowings1283769625527552755275527Accountpayables595287219974643458377790566303Taxpayable4796742335233523352335Othercurrentliabilities193372809233222332223322233222Non-currentliabilities97912173939732397323973239732Long-termborrowings47871063520720207202072020720Deferredincome5803011203120312031203Othernon-currentliabilities44241080417809178091780917809Totalliabilities101972129666155459126654158721147119Sharecapital388409407407407407Otherreserves81330123691137212135494144159155597Totalshareholdersequity81658124014137432135770144396155801Minorityinterest327322220276237204Totalequityandliabilities183629253680292892262423303117302921CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation1216321633244171053984313034Depreciationamortization138117083062241930263732Taxpaid22421126244261012161629Changeinworkingcapital95534320157251122013254060Others29564658474000Netcashfromoperations23810218799785119761297719197PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE314Feb2023InvestingCapitalexpenditure340530267169559158206771Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments0391086000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term124633190494166947000investmentsOthers152798205186203699000Netcashfrominvesting315701767945008559158206771FinancingNetborrowings661920049227000Proceedsfromshareissues0199080000Sharerepurchases29324557007000Others56687672278000Netcashfromfinancing3121262164499000NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear302302592054752235122989737054Exchangedifference15835170000Cashattheendoftheyear259205475223512298973705449481GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue17719433514941163Grossprofit287287585190109154EBIT8829104483nana334Netprofit250101151nana322Adjnetprofit319128695624587120PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin139149177169180179Adjnetprofitmargin565367304544ReturnonequityROE132198148126276GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx090610070806Currentratiox151616181617Receivableturnoverdays111127156120120120Inventoryturnoverdays639648636454454454Payableturnoverdays10891150992946946946VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE208174268341215192PEdiluted181273235341215192PB262938212018Divyield000000000000NoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE414Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5