研究报告全文：MN13Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSunnyOptical2382HKFY22profitwarningbelowexpectationsStilltooearlytobottomfishTargetPriceHK9251SunnyOpticalannouncedFY22profitwarningswithnetprofitdeclineof50-55PreviousTPHK963YoYandthemid-pointis1122belowourconsensusestimatesThemissUpDownside97wasmainlyduetoweaksmartphonedemandcamde-specandRMB353mnCurrentPriceHK10240unrealisedFXlossUS600mnbondonRMBdepreciationThisechoesourpreviousviewthatsluggishshipmentandintensecompetitionwouldleadtoChinaTechnologymargindownsidein2H22JanmonthlyshipmentandourrecentcheckalsoAlexNGsuggestedthatdemandweaknesswillextendinto1Q23Egiveninventory85239000881destockingandordercutafterasoft4Q22WetrimmedFY22-24EEPSby5-alexngcmbicomhk9toreflectFY22missandslowerrecoveryOurFY23-24EEPSare15-17belowconsensusTradingat272x224xFY2324EPEthestockisfairlyLilyYANGPhDvaluedinourviewMaintainHOLDandreducedSOTP-basedTPtoHK92585239163716lilyyangcmbicomhk2022profitwarningworse-than-fearedonweakerASPGPMSunnyHanqingLIexpectedFY22earningstodecline50-55YoYtoreachRMB2245-lihanqingcmbicomhk2494mnbelowourandconsensusestimatesof-47YoYand-39YoYStockDataMgmtattributedthemisstoweaksmartphonedemandcamerade-specMktCapHKmn1123328andRMB353mnnon-cashFXlossUS600mnbondFor2H22mid-pointAvg3mthstoHKmn971ofnetprofitdropped56YoYworsethan-50YoYin1H22Sunnywill52wHighLowHK195606755announcefullsetofresultsinmid-Marchandprovide2023guidanceinTotalIssuedSharesmn10970SourceFactSetanalystmeetingthenextdayShareholdingStructureJanshipmentshowedsignofprolongedweaknessinto1Q23ESunnySunXuLtd355alsoreportedJanmonthlyshipmentwithhandset-relatedproductsJPMorganChaseCo49HCMHLSdeclineof-19-49YoYvs-29-40inDecpartlyduetoSourceHKExlessworkingdaysonearlyCNYHoweverourrecentcheckssuggestedSharePerformancedemandweaknesswillpersistinto1Q23EduetoAndroidongoingAbsoluteRelativedestockingandApplesordercorrectionWhileSunnysiPhoneHLS1-mth7178shipmentisgrowingitssalescontribution6offull-yearshipmentwillnot3-mth199-906-mth-80-149becomemajorgrowthdriveratthisstageSourceFactSetOurFY23-24EEPSare15-17belowconsensusMaintainHOLDWhile12-mthPricePerformancewemaintainourpositiveviewonSunnysindustryleadershipproductroadmapandopportunitiesinautocameraLiDARAU-HUDwebelieveinventorydestockingandhighexposuretohandsetsegment70ofsalesvs10forauto-relatedwillremaintheoverhangforthestockWecutFY23-24EEPSby5-9toreflectFY22missandslowerrecoveryWethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedat272x224xFY2324EPEMaintainHOLDwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK925236xFY23EPESourceFactSetEarningsSummaryRelatedReportsYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E1ShipmentweaknesslikelytoRevenueRMBmn3800237497298133221337781persistinto1Q23EMaintainHOLDYoYgrowth04132058017311Jan2023linkNetprofitRMBmn4950350611245423625544050YoYgrowth232225154772152SoftHLSHCMinAugStillawaitingturningpoint13Sep2022EPSReportedRMB447457220326396linkConsensusEPSRMB000457271376486PEx2553834022722243ShipmentguidanceloweredasPBx7492423833expectedAwaitingmarketrecoveryYield060505070917Aug2022linkROE335268112149160Netgearing46161221216302SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk13Feb2023FocusChartsFigure1SunnyOpticalrevenuetrendFigure2SunnyOpticalGPMtrendRMBmn464000050504404524154283500040453983954035134830000303501735Thousands26725000203024682302222242282520720000010-1201471411371241221331261311261500001511510510611296849310000-20-101055000-2000-302019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E200820092011201220142015201620172018201920202010201320212023EOthersAutoLens2022EHandsetLens3DsensingOpticalComponentsOptoelectronicProductsCameraModulesYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SunnyHCMshipmenttrendFigure4SunnyHLSshipmenttrendmnunitmnunit20192020202120222023201920202021202220237018016060140501204041100308067602040102000JulJulAprOctJanJunFebMarAprOctAugSepNovDecJanJunMayFebMarAugSepNovDecMaySourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5Sunnynext-genhandsetcameraproductsFigure6SunnyopportunitiesinvehiclecamerasSourceCounterpointCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE213Feb2023EarningsRevisionFigure7CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldChangeRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue298133221337781321363632441303-7-11-9Grossprofit616470218415649776799003-5-9-7Operatingprofit311743645272337745915533-8-5-5Netprofit241135614327265637654558-9-5-5EPSRMB220326396243345417-9-5-5Grossmargin20721822320221121805ppt07ppt05pptOperatingmargin105135140105126134-01ppt09ppt06pptNetmargin8111111583104110-02ppt07ppt04pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue298133221337781330633784743861-10-15-14Grossprofit6164702184156817827510142-10-15-17Operatingprofit311743645272316143365434-11-3Netprofit241135614327302241785239-20-15-17EPSRMB220326396271376486-19-13-18Grossmargin20721822320621923101ppt-01ppt-08pptOperatingmargin1051351409611512409ppt21ppt16pptNetmargin8111111591110119-11ppt0ppt-05pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure9PLforecastRMBmnFY20FY211H222H22EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue38002374971697212841298133221337781YoY04-13-144-273-20580173Costofsales29304287611344910200236492519229366Grossprofit8698873635222642616470218415GPM229233208206206218223YoY12204-288-303-294139199SGA1032103260143710389441077ofrev-27-28-35-34-35-29-29RD2499264214681092256023842758ofrev-66-70-87-85-86-74-73Othergainloss698252698252537205-Operatingprofit5877585117981319311743645272OPM155156106103105135140YoY223-04-463-474-467400208Netprofit4882499313581053241135614327NPM128133808281111115YoY22323-495-543-517477215SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE313Feb2023Figure10MajorassumptionsFY20FY21FY22EFY23EFY24EShipmentvolumemnunitOpticalComponentsHandsetlenssets15301440119312741401YoY14-6-17710Vehiclelenssets56687994113YoY1221161920OptoelectronicProductsHandsetcameramodules593674517544598YoY1014-23510Otheroptoelectronic3Dsensing41595173106YoY-1845-144545OpticalInstrumentsMicroscopicinstruments195258320352387YoY-132241010RevenueRMBmnOpticalComponents9181877690491082312767OptoelectronicProducts2849428334204082105124641Opticalinstruments326387357339373TotalRevenue3800237497298133221337781YoY04-13-20580173GrossMargin229233206218223OpticalComponents428395348350350Optoelectronicproducts126137106112119Opticalinstruments392451448455455SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE413Feb2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithnewTPofHK925WemaintainHOLDwithnewTPofHK925Wederivedour12-monthTPfromSOTPvaluationmethodologyandourTPisbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof236xFY23EEPSinordertoreflect1Sunnysdiversificationinmultiplebusinesseswithdifferentgrowthprofilesand2visibilityofproductupcyclesacrossdifferentsegmentsWeassign15xPEtoitsCCMbusinesstoreflectitsChinaNo1positionproductupcycleandadvancedtechnologycapacityWeassign35xPEforitsvehiclelensbusinesstoreflectthehigh-marginandhigh-growthindustrynatureofvehiclelens25CAGRFY20-23EandSunnysNo1globalmarketshareWeapplya25xPEtoitshandsetlenssegmentgivensecularupgradetrendandcontinuedsharegainsfrompeersFigure11SunnyOpticalSOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY23EProfitFY23EEPSRMBTargetPECameramodules33711015xHandsetlenses45014725xVehiclelenses19306335xOthers2100725xTotalRMBImpliedPE326236xTPHK925SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure12PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23ESunnyOptical2382HKHold143081024925-974022724238112149Qtech1478HKBuy77752581223196111048106Cowell1415HKNR18391720NANA2261714536222246Truly732HKNR544135NANA------Catcher2474TTNR445918800NANA10417108098349Largan3008TTNR9992225500NANA1341702019142113Lite-on2301TTNR54526950NANA1141052120190197Primax4915TTNR8845810NANA95891515163166O-film002456CHNR2539531NANA--3947-132Average1831532524138111SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1312MforwardPEbandFigure1412MforwardPBband10018901680147012601050840630420102002014201520162017201820192020202120222014201520162017201820192020202120221-yrForwardPEMean1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE513Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue378493800237497298133221337781Costofgoodssold300982930428761236492519229366Grossprofit775186988736616470218415Sellingexpense279313274266235283Adminexpense650719758772709793RDexpense220924992642256023842758Others205698789558670691Operatingprofit480658775851311743645272ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV6019222NetInterestincomeexpense250224230240264291Pre-taxprofit455056535640287941014983Incometax531703579424476578Minorityinterest286868436478Netprofit401949505061245436264405Netdividends623799974470695844BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets224462563027989240353170131571Cashequivalents1917284256057285780711123Accountreceivables963082127448500384517328Inventories514657835482229359893665STbankdeposits212381112111211121112FinancialassetsatFVTPL566384808314831483148314Othercurrentassets697428282828Non-currentassets8247980910785119791294213627PPE65677513830395501049711144Othernon-currentassets168022952481242924452483Totalassets306933543838774360144464345198Currentliabilities1263013411118737129128289822Short-termborrowings111920711539153915391539Accountpayables113221073398695163108497816Othercurrentliabilities5622922315493221821942726021Non-currentliabilities533652016005600560056005Long-termborrowings00700700700700Othernon-currentliabilities533652015305530553055305Totalliabilities179671861217879131341883315827Sharecapital105105105105105105Otherreserves124481649220483224232529028773Totalshareholdersequity127261682620895228792581029371Minorityinterest173229307351415493Totalequityandliabilities306933543838774360144464345198PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE613Feb2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation455056435640287941014983Depreciationamortization122715701638175320532353Changeinworkingcapital14771152009281457413Others361168499170216298Netcashfromoperations466271606979539044817451InvestingCapitalexpenditure276022712498300030003000Others79637055400000Netcashfrominvesting355659762902300030003000FinancingDividendpaid623796974470695844Netborrowings38210170000Sharerepurchases1701510000Others2662912215240264291Netcashfromfinancing144122212417109591135NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear225419172842560572857807Exchangedifference2378358000Cashattheendoftheyear1917284256057285780711123GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue460041320580173Grossprofit57812204294139199Operatingprofit56222304467400208Netprofit60023222515477215PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin205229233207218223Operatingmargin127155156105135140ReturnonequityROE365335268112149160GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx010002020203Currentratiox181924342532Receivableturnoverdays765857762762762762Inventoryturnoverdays498681681600600600Payableturnoverdays111513741374116011601160VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE240255383402272224PB747492423833Divyield060605050709EV127262168261208953228792258100293710EVSales030406080808SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE713Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8