>> 招银国际-China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Expect a profit turnaround in 2023E-230208
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研究报告全文：8Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateChinaHongqiao1378HKBUYMaintainExpectaprofitturnaroundin2023ETargetPriceHK133PreviousTPHK138ChinaHongqiaoannounceditsFY22profitwarningstatinganUpDownside555approximately40YoYbottom-linedeclinelargelyinlinewithmarketCurrentPriceHK86expectationsTwofactorshavecontributedtosuchearningsdropincludingirisingrawmaterialsandiiFXlossarisingfromthesignificantdepreciationofChinaAluminumSectorRMBHoweverwebelievetheprofitofthealuminumindustryisexpectedtoreboundin2023EgiventhemarginalcostimprovementMoreoverweexpecttheJackBaiCFAvaluationofthenon-ferrousmetalsectortorecoverastheFedsinterestrate85239000835jackbaicmbicomhkhikescyclewillcometoanendinmid-2023EWemaintainourBUYratingandadjustourtargetpriceslightlyfromHK138toHK133MeganXiaBottom-linedropsbyapproximately40YoYinlinewithmarket85292994355expectationsEventhoughCHQhasposedexcellentresultsintermsofsalesmeganxiacmbicomhkvolumeASPandsalesrevenuerawmaterialssuchascoalanodecarbonandcrudeoilexperiencedasignificantincreaseamidglobalinflationin2022whicherodeditsbottom-lineperformanceLookingaheadwebelievethattheStockDataMktCapHKmn80353darkesthourhaspassedWeobservethatmaterialcostshavepassedtheAvg3mthstoHKmn13722peaksincelate2022early2023EAsaresultweexpectanindustry-wide52wHighLowHK94515marginimprovementin2023EEquityshare1378hk9476SourceWindProductioncapacityswitchwasontrackwithabetterelectricitycoststructureaheadCHQsWenshanproductionbasephase1wasfullyrampedShareholdingStructureupin2022whilephase2willbeputintoproductionin2023EGivensuchaHongqiaoHoldings6662CITICGroup1271productionswitchCHQhasstartedtoenjoyabetterelectricitycoststructureSourceHKExBloombergMeanwhiletheCompanywillgetmoreattentionfromoverseasinvestorsasitposesabetterESGprofileInadditionthefullyutilizedIndonesiaproductionSharePerformancefacilityofaluminawillhelpCHQseizethegrowthpotentialinSoutheastAsiaAbsoluteRelative1-mth125112MaintainBUYratinggivenupcomingprofitturnaroundandtheattractive3-mth36064valuationTheglobalinventoryofaluminumisstillatarelativelylowlevelfor6-mth15297SourceWindafewweeksleavingroomforreplenishmentin2023EWeexpectdomesticdemandforaluminumwillbesupportedbythepost-COVIDrecoveryin2023E12-mthPricePerformanceSpecificallyweforecastthatChinasaluminumpricewillremainatHKRMB19000pertonWebelievethatthematerialcostpressurewillbe121378HKHSIHIrebased10significantlyeasedgloballyin2023Egivendimeconomicforecastoverseas8contributingtoamarginimprovementMoreoverwefurtherexpectthatthe6sectorsentimentwillrecoverbackedbytheendoftheFedratehikecyclein4themid-2023EWetrimmedFY23-24EEPSby30-31toreflect2H22results2andhigherrawmaterialcostWeadjustedourTPtoHK133basedon0Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22rollover75x2023EPEin-linewith5-yearhistavgPEgivenearningsrecoveryfromHK138ReiterateBUYratingSourceWindEarningsSummaryAuditorShinewingHKYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn86145114491120111124031122603YoY2333291491326-115NetIncomeRMBmn104961607397461376814298EPSRMB122177106147153EPSCHG723451-40439738ConsensusEPSRMB112160225235244PEx5840674846PBx080072072065060Yield75812375105109ROE152199119150144Netgearing3977711504NCSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk8Feb2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowSummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue86145114491120111124031122603Profitbeforetax1270422554136781932320067Aluminumproducts6325784313849178885888113Interestpayment45063626281423912143Aluminumfabrication878112524149371552315789DDA69046717757378338074Alumina1348716967195971898918040ChangeinWC537217650129741976Steam619687661661661Taxadjustments28825522319053835048Others191924572107302648COGS6678984038993441000298659Netcashfromoperation1777928650137562211223308Grossprofit19355304532076724010123944Capexinvestments52604869628963776011Otherincomeandgains27013707195636343735Others1714425---SDexpenses400526577595588Netcashfrominvestment69745102628963776011Adminexpenses40525708600657055272Otherexpenses6171691418425422Equityraised1007118335--Financialcosts45063626281423912143ChangeofDebts383118195800050002000Changeinfairvalue291117130130130Dividendpaid38337145788948786812Shareprofits51562639666684Interestpayment45063626281423912143Subsidydisposalloss-----Others40145526513725753Netcashfromfinancing715019758182251154410203ProfitBeforeTax1270422554136781932320067Incometax22605705342048315017Netchangeincash365537901075841917094Cashatbeginning4185744887486773791942109LessMinorityInterest51775513725753FXchange625----Netprofit104961607397461376814298Cashattheend4546549227379194210949203Lesspledgedcash-----Cashatbalancesheet4546549227379194210949203BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentAssets8409784892826988203280014SalesmixFixedAssets6475063442613645884355798Aluminumproducts734736707716719Right-of-useassets56475718633367337033Aluminumfabrication102109124125129Interestsinassociates66816065624569117595Alumina157148163153147Others70199667875795459588Steam0706050505Total10001000100010001000CurrentAssets97434103528103547111127118968Cashandcash4546549227379194210949203PLratiosTradeequivalentsandbills1949319203234222418623908Grossprofitmargin225266173194195receivablesPrepayments912610768132121240311647Operatingmargin200229137175181Inventories1971822705268233000632558Netmargin12214081111117Others36311624217124231652Effectivetaxrate178253250250250CurrentLiabilities7335161158613094685045461BalancesheetratiosAccountPayables1337718735198692000419732Currentratiox133164167232258Otherpayables1210611480149021800417759Inventoryturnoverdays1145100791010371157STborrowings45577261202168639613059Creditorsturnover867617648701716Others22914823485248814911daysDebtorsturnoverdays870762709728735LiabilitiesAssets577509494465438Non-CurrentLiabilities3016331284301514191040885Netgearingratio39777115044NCLTborrowings2813129393283463981238714DerivativecomponentofCB550241253266279ReturnsDeferredincome582835877921967ROE147198117150144Others900814674911925ROA5885537272Totalnetassets768029243994785104399112637PershareMinorityInterests560611131116441236913121EPSRMB122177106147153Shareholdersequity7119681308831419203099516DPSHK065105064090093BVPSRMB8028918919861066SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE28Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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