研究报告全文：MN7Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBilibiliBILIUSEyesonmonetizationpotentialandmarginimprovementtrajectoryTargetPriceUS2950WeexpectBiliwilldelivernarrowingadjustednetlosswhilerevenuegrowthPreviousTPUS210coulddeceleratein4Q22butallthesearewithinexpectationsMarketislookingUpDownside264forsignsofmonetizationenhancementself-propellinguserandecosystemCurrentPriceUS2333growthWecontinuetoexpectthatBiliwillbeontracktoachieveabreakevenonnon-GAAPbyend-2024EdrivenbygrowinguserbasethatimprovesChinaInternetmonetizationBilisstrongrecoveryfromtroughvaluationwasmainlyduetoSaiyiHECFAimprovingmarketsentimenttooutperformthesectorgoingforwardandthe85239161739marketexpectsBilitodeliverconsistentuserbasegrowthwhichwillenhancehesaiyicmbicomhkmonetizationDuetoimprovingmacroandpolicyoutlookonlineadsgamingsocialplatformsallre-ratedBenchmarktopeersourSOTP-WentaoLUluwentaocmbicomhkderivedTPisraisedtoUS295previousUS210translatinginto3026xFY2324EPSMaintainBUYCatalyststowatchin1H23E1better-than-YeTAOexpectedmarginimprovement2approvalofkeygametitles3inclusioninfranktaocmbicomhksouthboundstockconnectSophieHUANGSteadymarginimprovementdespitedeceleratingrevenuegrowthWesophiehuangcmbicomhkforecastBilistotalrevenuetogrowby6YoYtoRMB61bnin4Q22E3Q2211YoYmainlydrivenbythesolidgrowthofVASbusinessBiliEasonXUcontinuestooptimizeitsrevenue-sharingcoststructureandcontenteasonxucmbicomhkinvestmentwhichweexpecttosupportGPMtoimprovefrom190182StockDatain4Q213Q22to195in4Q22EOverallweforecastadjustednetlosstoMktCapUSmn91812narrowfromRMB1718bnin4Q213Q22toRMB16bnin4Q22EWeAvg3mthstoUSmn216expecttheimpactoforganizationaloptimizationin2H22tobemorevisible52wHighLowUS3784892in2023EfurtherunleashingoperatingleverageandnarrowingadjustednetTotalIssuedSharesmn3935SourceFactSetlosstoRMB4218bnin20232024EResilientVASbusinessbutotherlinesremainunderpressureWeShareholdingStructureforecastVASrevenuetogrowby20YoYandaccountfor37oftotalRuiChen126Tencent112revenuein4Q22EdrivenbytheresilientlivestreamingbusinessandtheSourceCompanydatalaunchofseveralpopularanimetitlesAdsrevenueisflatYoYandrepresents26oftotalrevenuein4Q22EunderourestimateasbrandadSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativedemandwasweakandsponsorshipadrevenuefromBiliskeyeventsfaced1-mth-186-283high-baseeffectMobilegamebusinessremainsunderpressurein4Q22E3-mth992738duetoalackofnewgameswithrevenuedownby9YoYandequivalent6-mth-5101to19oftotalrevenuein4Q22EBilishighly-anticipatedtitlePettyDerbySourceFactSetremainspendingforapprovalandtheresumptionofimportedgamelicense12-mthPricePerformanceinDec2022shouldbeapositivesignalWeforecaste-commercerevenuetoincreaseby10YoYtoRMB11bn18oftotalrevenuein4Q22EmainlyduetotherecoveryoflogisticsMaintainBUYWeloweredFY22adjustednetlossforecastfromRMB70bntoRMB69bninviewofbetter-than-expectedcostoptimizationwhilemaintainingFY23-24EforecastunchangedOurSOTP-derivedTPconsistsofUS10806forVASe-commercebusinesson2705x2023ESourceFactSetPSandUS9982foradsgamesbusinesson20x16x2023EPERelatedReportsEarningsSummary1BiliBiliBiliUS-FocusonmoreYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24Esustainablegrowth30Nov2022RevenueRMBmn11999193842190626482307522BiliBiliBiliUS-UserbaseandYoYgrowth770615130209161engagementgrowtharecrucialGrossmargin23720917322027326Oct2022AdjustednetprofitRMBmn2559654781693064163218329EPSAdjustedRMBcents7402514424417610910578946574ConsensusEPSRMBcents7402514424417921010294134905PSx5232282420SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk7Feb2023ForecastupdateandvaluationWereducedourFY22adjustednetlossforecastfromRMB70bntoRMB69bninviewofthebetter-than-expectedcoststructureoptimizationwhilemaintainingFY23-24EforecastunchangedFigure1BiliforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue219062648230752219062648230752000000GrossProfit380058268393370858268393250000OperatingProfit782155623139790255623139nananaAdjustednetprofit693141631833701341641833nananaAdjustedEPSRMB1761064717810647nananaGrossMargin17322027316922027304ppt00ppt00pptOperatingMargin-357-210-102-361-210-10204ppt00ppt00pptAdjustednetmargin-316-157-60-320-157-6004ppt00ppt00pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue21906264823075221878265433188201-02-35GrossProfit380058268393382761888889-07-59-56OperatingProfit782155623139738444891870nananaAdjustednetprofit693141631833699040571294nananaAdjustedEPSRMB1761064717910335nananaGrossMargin173220273175233279-01ppt-13ppt-06pptOperatingMargin-357-210-102-337-169-59-20ppt-41ppt-43pptAdjustednetmargin-316-157-60-320-153-4103ppt-04ppt-19pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesWeforecastVASrevenuetogrowby20YoYandaccountfor37oftotalrevenuein4Q22EdrivenbytheresilientlivestreamingbusinessandthelaunchofseveralpopularanimetitlesincludingTheThreeBodyProblemandYao-ChineseFolktalesAdsrevenueisflatYoYandrepresents26oftotalrevenuein4Q22EunderourestimateasbrandaddemandwasweakandsponsorshipadrevenuefromBiliskeyeventsfacedhigh-baseeffectThatsaiditsperformanceadbusinessremainsresilientsupportedbytheimprovementinitsadmonetizationinfrastructureMobilegamebusinessremainsunderpressurein4Q22duetoalackofnewgameswithrevenuedownby9YoYandequivalentto19oftotalrevenuein4Q22EBilishighly-anticipatedtitlePettyDerbyremainspendingforapprovalandtheresumptionofimportedgamelicenseinDec2022shouldbeapositivesignalSelf-developedgamesandinternationalexpansionremainthekeylong-termdriversbutBilistillneedstodemonstrateitsin-housegamedevelopmentandoverseaspublishingcapabilitiesespeciallyafteroptimizationofitsgamingbusinesslinein2H22Weforecaste-commercerevenuetoincreaseby10YoYtoRMB11bn18oftotalrevenuein4Q22EmainlyduetotherecoveryoflogisticsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE27Feb2023Figure3BiliBilikeyfinancialforecastsRMBmn20212022E2023E2024E4Q22EMobilegames50915051553258131175yoy60-089551-93VAS6935864010867129742275yoy803246258194201Advertising45235149667182201595yoy145513829623205E-commerceandothers28343066341337451104yoy8818211397100Totalrevenue193842190626482307526149yoy61513020916164AverageMAUs250316382451332yoy345265210180223Grossprofitmargin209173220273195SMexpenseratio299225180155207RDexpenseratio147200160140180Adjustednetlossmargin-283-316-157-60-252Adjustednetloss54786931416318331551SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSOTPValuationBasedontheSOTPvaluationourtargetpriceforBiliisUS295perADSwhichimplies3026x2022E2023EPSOurtargetpriceofUS295includes1US108fortheVASbusiness367ofthetotalvaluationbasedona27x2023EPSThetargetPSmultipleisonparwiththeaveragePSofothervideoplatforms2US99fortheadvertisingbusiness334ofthetotalvaluationbasedona20x2023EPEThetargetPEmultipleisatapremiumtotheaveragePEofthematureadvertisingplatforms14x2024EPEtoreflectBilisuniquevaluepropositioninvideoadvertisingmarketanditsstronggrowthoutlookFY21-24ErevenueCAGR223US82formobilegames277ofthetotalvaluationbasedona16x2023EPEThetargetPEmultiplehasadiscountovertheindustryaverage20x2024EPEasBilihasyettoestablishsuccessfultrackrecordinin-housegamesdevelopment4US06fore-commerce21ofthetotalvaluationbasedona05x2023EPSThetargetPSmultipleisonparwiththeaveragePSoftheothere-commerceplatformsFigure4BiliSOTPValuationRMBmn2023ErevenueFY21-FY24ENetmarginTargetAsoftotalTargetPSxTargetPExRevCAGRvaluationvaluationVASLivestreamingMembership10867232729341367-Livestreaming6562-Membership4305Advertising667122202026683334Mobilegames55325251622127277E-commerce34131005170621TotalvaluationRMBmn79857NumberofADSmn395ValuationperADSUS295SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE37Feb2023Figure5PeercomparisononlinegamesandadvertisingsectorPriceEPSgrowthYoYPExCompaniesTickerLocalFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EOnlinegamesNetEaseNTESUS88431111171715ActivisionBlizzardATVIUS71620276241918ElectronicArtsEAUS112227128161817TakeTwoInteractiveTTWOUS1056181848212618IGG799HK3013415667NA2817iDreamSky1119HK4362292155NA3012Nexon3659JP3085015316242420Nintendo7974JP56070477151416BandaiNamco7832JP8648061290241919PerfectWorld002624CH14684161618151337InteractiveEntertainment002555CH22791612171513AveragePE202016OnlineadvertisingWeiboWBUS2343381011109BaiduBIDUUS1428111413171513MetaMetaUS186127114171714AveragePE151412SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasatthe6FebmarketcloseFigure6Peercomparisononlinevideoandfirst-partye-commercePriceRevenuegrowthYoYPSxCompaniesTickerLocalFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EOnlinevideoiQiyiIQUS691147469151413MangoExcellentMedia300413CH346174154127453935AveragePS302724First-partye-commerceJDJDUS56727146136060504VipshopVIPSUS1501846466060605AveragePS060505SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasatthe6FebmarketclosePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE47Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue67781199919384219062648230752Costofgoodssold5588915915341181062065722359Grossprofit119028404043380058268393Operatingexpenses2685598110472116211138711532Sellingexpense119934925795492947674767Adminexpense5939761838231123832460RDexpense89415132840438142374305Operatingprofit149531416429782155623139Investmentgainloss9728194366167174Othergainslosses15137548400EBIT138429756628770353952965Interestincome163837015299114Interestexpense47109155168168476Pre-taxprofit126830016713771954633327Incometax3653951168250Aftertaxprofit130430546809783455453377Minorityinterest1547201611168Others040000Netprofit128930126789781954343309Adjustednetprofit106725605478693141631833BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets103241574036447319623593538622Cashequivalents496346787523207632884201Accountreceivables74512181382148428663328Prepayment151117664848547966247692STbankdeposits184547207632786180978340Othercurrentassets1261335715061150611506115061Non-currentassets5193812615606161501700717574PPE5167621350161118121976InvestmentinJVsassos125122335503546557655939Intangibles165723573836398841004137Goodwill101212962338233823382338Othernon-currentassets75614782580274829923185Totalassets155172386652053481125294256196Currentliabilities4273739212071146541751319475Short-termborrowings01001232123212321232Accountpayables190430744361620170747657Taxpayable01001232123212321232Othercurrentliabilities179328802613301343775176Accruedexpenses57612382633297635984178Non-currentliabilities3608869218266184252455927684Long-termborrowings3415834117784177842378426784Othernon-currentliabilities193351482641775899Totalliabilities78801608330337330794207247159Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus107181461635930359303593035930Retainedearnings4146717513971206702494426844Otherreserves480159255255255255Totalshareholdersequity705276002170415005107318831Minorityinterest5841821228139207Totalequityandliabilities155172386652053481125294256196PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE57Feb2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation126830016713771954633327Depreciationamortization192327539370462532Taxpaid3653951168250Changeinworkingcapital223148791850333432Others101218873442380938834308Netcashfromoperations195753264715737041995InvestingCapitalexpenditure156522391756323334723646Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments1380175767163291320Others1013491119618397480436Netcashfrominvesting3958890724578395840854082FinancingNetborrowings3398569511203060003000Proceedsfromshareissues1648281719288000Others33177103000Netcashfromfinancing5079833530389060003000NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear354049634678752320763288Exchangedifference1084663198400Cashattheendoftheyear496346787523207632884201GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue642770615130209161Grossprofit391138642460533441PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin176237209173220273Operatingmargin221262332357210102Adjnetprofitmargin15721328331615760ReturnonequityROE184411463426422338GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx020505112027Currentratiox242130222120Receivableturnoverdays401371260247395395Payableturnoverdays124412251038125012501250VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPB51124108425871SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE67Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7