研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary2Feb2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报StrongmarketswithactivebuyingflowthismorningInAsianIGspacebenchmarknameslikeXiaomiLenovotightened5-10bpswhilewesawGlennKoCFA高志和sellingnearnoonInLGFVSOEperpAT1spacebuyerscontinuedtoload85236576235risksglennkocmbicomhkActiveAsianex-JPUSDbondsissuanceandemergenceofFTZissuesinJan23SeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩ChinaPropertySectorPropertyWeeklyWeakconstructionresumption85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkratedraggedbypropertySeebelowforcommentsfromourresearchteamTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超YesterdayAsiaIGspaceremainedfirmaheadofFOMCratedecisionIn85237618919financialsleasingnamescontinuedtooutperformonthefrontendasjerrywangcmbicomhkBOCAVI23-24stightened5bpsonstrongdemandandwereliftedtoT97T105arearespectivelyPostlunchwesawclientschasingbankT2papersBCHINA24sCCB29sgrinded5bpstighterintoT70levelICBCAS29salsotightenedintoT100levelInAMCsHRINTHCCAMCLcurvesweresought-afteronthefront-endInTMTsSOEs10ybenchmarkpapersshowedbetterbuyingonTENCNT30sBABA31sHAOHUA30stightened10bpstobequotedatT175T173levelThereweresomeprofittakingonbetaSOEnamessuchasCHALUMCHITRA27sHKAA30s33stightened3-5bpsintoT85T82levelonone-waybiddingInEx-ChinaIGspaceHYUELEinitiallytraded2-5bpswideramidnewsofwideroperatinglossesWesawRMsellingonHYUELE24s28s33sbutwereabsorbedandpricelevelswerebacktounchangedintolunchHYUELEcurvewasclosedunchangedto3bpswiderwiththe28stightestprintedatT235WOORIBcurvewasunderactivebetterbuyingas28sseniortightenedby4bpsInIGpropertiesLNGFORsVNKRLEswereunderbuyinginterestsfromRMChineseHYshadanupbeatsessionacrosssectorswithpropertybondsbroadlyup1ptSINOCEsCHJMAOswereup05-1ptCOGARDsweretraded15-25ptshigherAGILEsCENCHIswere25-4ptshigherElsewhereGWFOOD30wastradedup4ptsAmongHKcorpnamesROADKGperpsweremarkedup45-65ptsCKINFHYSANperpsweretraded1-3ptshigherIndustrialnamesHONGQI26sANTOIL25spoppedup25-3ptsMacaugamingnamesSANLTDsWYNMACswereup05-1ptInIndianHYsAdaniEnterprisesabandonedtheUSD24bnfollow-onsharesaledespiteitwasfullysubscribedADSEZsADANEMsopenedup2-4ptsbutloweredanother15-35ptsbyEODpostnewsofcancelingFPOcameoutintoafternoonADTINsADGREGstayedrange-boundfromhigh70stomid-80sVEDLNsweretradeddownanother1-15ptsandIndianrenewablesweremixedonthebackofAdanitwistIndonesianHYLMRTSPsINDYIJslowered05-1ptIntheLGFVPerpAsiaAT1spacewehadasuperhecticdayTechnicalPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk12Feb2023backdropofthemarketremainedextremelyfirmthankstotherobustdeploymentdemandLGFVpapersclimbedanother2ptsinlightofRMbuyingstaledpricesandshortsqueezesAsqualitypapershadreachedlevels6orbelowthatofferedlittlevaluerelativetofundingcoststhesequalitynamesrightnowprovidedlittleupsidebeyondshortsqueezesandindeedlittleoffersideliquidityHencewesawanincreasingamountofinvestorsturnedtheireyestoelsewherehigheryieldingpapers-manyofwhichhighbetapapersthatforalongtimenobodybotheredtohaveanyinterestAssuchholdersofthesehighbetanamesespeciallylessactiveonesbeyondtheusualCQNANAwerealsohappytooffloadtherisksintotherallyandsothemostactivenameswerethosefromwesternregionslikeGansuGuangxiChongqingandYinchuanWereckonthatatcurrentlevelsmostpapersnolongeroffermuchvaluefromarisk-rewardperspectiveandnotcheapfromtheperspectiveofrisingfundingcostsThoughoneinterestingexceptionwouldbeCQNANA26sthatishistoricallyknownforitsbadtechnicalsbutthepaperseemedtostillofferdecentyieldpickupwitharelativelylowcashpriceFlowswereindeedmixedtwo-waydespitetheupwardpriceactionwhilsttheCQNANA24sshowedbettersellingastheyreachedcloseto7OverallcashliquidityremainedrobustElsewhereSOEPerpsandChineseAT1sremainedlargelyresilientifnotedgedslightlyhigheramidmixedtwo-wayflowssupportedmainlybyshortcoveringinthelongendandcashparkingdemandinthefrontendInAT1sBCHINA36PerpBOCOM38Perpwerenotablytradedup05ptto97859775incashpricesrespectivelyLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeLVGEM12031023863101ADGREG614121024882-42ROADKG734PERP68066ADSEZ31020231684-35ROADKG795PERP66346ADSEZ438070329762-33GWFOOD325810293081342ADSEZ5080241678-32CENCHI71404242349336ADSEZ3828020232688-31MacroNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketscontinuedreboundingyesterdaySP105Dow002andNasdaq200roseasFeds25bpsratehikemeetmarketsexpectationandFedchairmanstoneskewedtodovishMarketsestimatethattheremightbelastratehikeofthisroundinterestrateincreaseinMarchorMayChinalaunchedregistration-basedIPOreformtomainboardTheUStreasuryyieldsoveralldownyesterdayyieldcurveswerebullflatteningand251030yieldsreached409348339355respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ActiveAsianex-JPUSDbondsissuanceandemergenceofFTZissuesinJan23ThegrossissuanceofAsiaex-JPUSDbondissuanceinJan23wasUSD321bncomparedwithUSD328bnin3Q22andUSD115bnin4Q22IGlevelissuanceaccountedfor763ofthegrossissuanceJan23isthemostactivemonthbyissuancesizesinceJan22and2ndmostactivesinceSep21TheactivenewissuanceisattributabletothestrongreboundinJan23andmorefavourablefundflowtoEMspleaseseeourAsiaCreditoutlookformorediscussionsACIGandACHYreturned25and71on43and194inNov2209and71inDec22respectivelyIndeedthisJanuaryisthebestperformingJanuaryforAsianIGcorpssince1998andAsianHYcorpssince2009NewissuancefromChinawasUSD46bnthemostactivemonthsinceJun22albeitfarbelowthepeakofsingle-monthissuanceofUSD32bninJan21IGlevelissuancewasmajoritywith850oftotalissuanceTherewasnoissuancefromChinaLGFVsectortheoutperformerinlastyearinJan2322Feb2023FTZbondsissuanceisontheriseInJan23theissuanceamountwasRMB135bncUSD2bnSpecifically8outof15newFTZdealswereissuedbyLGFVwithatotalissuanceofRMB73bncUSD11bnForChineseissuerstheweightedaveragecouponrateofFTZbondsinJan23was451lowerthan516ofordinaryUSDbondsTheFTZisannoteworthydevelopmentandthecannibalizationeffectonUSDbondissuanceshouldbecloselymonitor32Feb2023ChinaPropertySectorPropertyWeeklyWeakconstructionresumptionratedraggedbypropertyAccordingto100NJZschannelcheckamong12220projectstheworkresumptionratewasonly11onthe10thdayofCNYvs17in2022ItismainlydraggedbypropertyconstructionsinfrarelativelybetterinlinewithweaksalesinJanbymajordevelopers-22YoYByregionsSouthChinasawmostdropinconstructionsduetotightcashflowbydevelopersandgovernmentswhileSouthwestisbetteroffonactivefundinflowIntermsofmaterialscompletion-relatedmaterialslikefloatingglassesandAluminumcontinuetooutperformpartlyduetodirectfundingsupportonhomedeliveryLookingforwardwecouldseeaconstructionrecoveryinFebgiventheholidayseasonisoverandapossibleshort-termsalesrecoverySointermsofpropertysupplychainwecontinuetofavorcompletionsalesnewstartintheorderofdirectfundingsupportforcompletionpolicyrelaxationtoboostsalesand3-6monthlaggingfromsalesCatalystPolicyrelaxationinTier1citiesPropertysalesremainedsluggishinJanMajordevelopersalesfell22YoYinJan2023inlinewithforecastofourleadingindicatorGAINandmarketexpectationThegapbetweenSOEsandPOEsfurtherwidenedwithYuexiuBinjiangandCRLandseeingsalesup5-75YoYwhileCountryGarden-42YoYIntermsofcitybreakdownTier1-2citiescontinuedtooutperformlowertiercitiesasourdailydatashowssalesinTier3citiesonlyrecoveredto38of2019vs67inTier1-2citiesLookingintoFebweexpectashort-termrecoveryinFebonpolicyrelaxationlikeChangshasdownpaymentcutlowerbaseandpent-updemandafterpandemicWereiteratethatpolicyrelaxationinTier1citieswouldbethekeytodetermineMarchsalesandbeyondThechanceisrelativelyhighinGuangzhoubasedonthenewsCementpriceholdsupduringCNYAsof29JannationalcementpricehadstayedatRMB448mtfortwoweeksduetolowtradingvolumearoundCNYholidayFactoriesinGuangxistartliftingpricesastheregionhadlongershutdownperiodbeforeholidaythushavinglowerinventorypressureWeexpectcementpriceprofitabilitytooutperformsteelgiventhedisciplinedsupplycontrolviaregionalcooperationandoff-peakproductionhaltOnthecompanylevelAnhuiConchannounced2022ENPtodecline50-58inlinewithexpectationSteelrebarpricewentup21WoWtoRMB4342permtasof30JanItismainlydrivenbytheIronOrepricethatcontinuedtospike6WoWor19YTDduetoimprovingmacroinChinaandslowerratehikeinUSThereforetheprofitabilityofsteelcompaniescontinuedtodeteriorateOtherMaterialsFloatglasspricerampedup215WoWMoMon30JantoRMB1666mtbackedbytheexpectationofpost-holidayconsumptionrecoveryandfundingsupportonthehousingcompletionThisalsobenefitedothermaterialslikeWaterproofmaterialsgypsumboardandplasticpipeWhetherthesentimentcouldlastlongerdependsonpropertysaleswhichwethinkwillhaveabriefrecoveryinFebbutweneedtoseeifthereisrelaxationinTier-1citiestodeterminegoingforwardClickhereforfullreport42Feb2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedSizeUSDIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorTenorCouponYieldmnMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere18creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB150bnThereisnoyoycomparisonastherewasnoonshorebondsissuanceinsameperiodof2022duetoChineseNewYearvacationAccordingtoMacausGamingInspectionandCoordinationBureauMacaugamingrevenuesurged825yoytoMOP116bncUSD14bninJan23asChinareopenedbordersADANIGAdaniGroupscrappeditsfullysubscribedUSD245bnFPOSeparatelymediareportedthatCreditSuissestoppedtakingAdaniGroupbondsassecurityformarginloanswhileCitigroupwouldnolongeracceptAdaniGroupsecuritiesformarginloanAGILEAgilesaysinprocessofremittingfundstocuremissed2Jan23couponMeanwhileithaschosentodeferthedistributionofitsAGILE7875PERPBTSDFHealthandHappinessrepurchasedUSD500kofitsBTSDF5625102424toreducefinancecostDALWANDailanWandaisintalkswithICBCforoffshoreloanstorepayUSD350mnDALWAN8875032123GRNLGRGreenlandhasremittedfundstocurethemissed3Jan23couponwithinthe30-daygraceperiodGWFOODWensFoodstufffurtherrepurchasedUSD198mnofits2349notesduein2025HUAHKHuaianDevelopmentHoldingsproposestoofferuptoRMB1bncUSD1483mn2-yearcorporatebondstorepaydebtsLIANYULianyungangPortraisedRMB500mncUSD74mn270-daybillsatcouponrateof49RCBPMRizalCommercialBankingsaidtheyhavenoimmediateplanstoissueforeigncurrencydenominatedseniornotesROADKGRoadKingredeemedalltheoutstandingROADKG7875020123atmaturityCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhk52Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinst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