研究报告全文：1Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCOLI688HKBUYMaintainFY22EpreviewpagenotyetturnedTargetPriceHK2790PreviousTPHK3049WeestimateCOLItodeliver20YoYdeclinein2022Ecoreprofitclosetobuy-Updownside319sideexpectationMoreovertheearningsslidemaycontinueinto2023E-7CurrentPriceHK2115YoYduetosalesdeclinein2022-15YoYThishasmadeCOLIsvaluationnotcheapenoughtoinvestorsat6773x202223EdespitetherecentpullbackChinaPropertySectorForward-lookingweexpecttheleadingindicatorits2023Esalesgrowthtoturnpositiveduetoabundantsellableresourcesinhigh-tiercitiesandimprovingJeffreyZENG85239163727marketafterreopeningandpolicyrelaxationThismaysupportCOLIssharejeffreyzengcmbicomhkpriceandearningsrecoveryin2024EThereforewemaintainBuybutitisworthwaitingforclearersignofsalesgrowthtolongthestockCatalystPolicyMiaoZHANGrelaxationinTier1citiesRisk2022Eearningsmiss85237618910zhangmiaocmbicomhkFY22EearningspreviewAfteralackluster3Q22operationdataRevenueEBIT-59-77YoYweexpect2022EcorenetprofitstoBellaLIdecline20YoYtoRMB29bnThemainreasonsaremainlybecauseof-3685237576202YoYin9M22EBITandCOVIDimpactonconstructionin4QGPmarginisbellalicmbicomhkestimatedtolowerfurtherto21in2022Evs23in2021Asfor2023EStockDataNPitislikelytoremainunderpressureanddeclineanother7YoYduetoMktCapHKmn2358615salesdeclinein2022WesuggestinvestorsmaypayattentiontoitsAvg3mthstoHKmn394442023Esaleswhichistheleadingindicatorofearningsandalsothekeyto52wHighLowHK27151470theassetturnoverROETotalIssuedSharesmn10945SourceBloomberg2023EsalesoutlooktowardspositiveterritoryCOLIexclCOGOShareholdingStructurefinished2022withonly15salesYoYdeclinewhichisinthefirstcategoryCTCEC560justbehindYuexiuCRLBinjiangandCMShekouThisismainlyattributedFreefloat440toitsabundantsellableresourcesinhigh-tiercities90ofitslandbankSourceHKExLookinginto2023EweexpectCOLItodeliverapositivesalesgrowthas1SharePerformanceithasmaintainedsteadylandinvestmentsin2022withlandacquisitionsalesAbsoluteRelativeat31ThiscanhelpCOLImaintainatleastsimilarsellableresourcesin1-mth63-4720222Animprovingsell-throughrateonreopeningandpolicyrelaxation3-mth390-646-mth12-76AsforthegratitudeofrecoveryitisstillofhighuncertaintywhichdependsSourceBloombergonifanyrelaxationinTier1cities12-mthPricePerformanceTPcutandMaintainBuyWecutour202324Eearningsby912toreflectalowersalesbookingandmarginpressureAlsowerevisedownTPby8touseadeeperdiscounttoNAVat60previouslyat55WemaintainBuyratingonforeseeablesalesgrowthsalesmarginrecoveryin2023Eandattractivevaluationat06xPBvsits5-YRhistoricalaverageof08xevennopremiumoverVankeHandMideaEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ESourceBloombergRevenueRMBmn185790242241219904189591209634YoYgrowth135304-92-138106AuditorPwCNetincomeRMBmn3803036380291812707431311EPSRMB347332267247286YoYgrowth-87-42-198-72156ConsensusEPSRMBNANA272730PEx5254677363PBx0606060505Yield5657464350ROE140117827583Netgearing312311416503607SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGLOBALMARKETestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk1Feb2023Figure1COLIssalesYoYdeclinewas-15in2022ifexclCOGOSalesRMBbnDec-22YoYMoMNov-22YoY2022salesYoY2021salesYoYYuexiu2211087118-1112509115220CRLand4961081275353013-5315711Binjiang2044034153111539-9169124CMShekou426-382235-72926-10326818Poly5725654370-34573-1553496COLI381-458241-112947-2036952Gemdale204-151318032218-23286718Sino-Ocean108-30-1109-281003-2613634Longfor184-545175-232016-30290110Vanke398-3731304-294169-346278-11CountryGardenattri220-2-15260-373575-365580-2ChinaSCE46-32942-44590-4410453CIFI64-705542-751240-5024737Shimao70-37865-60865-682691-10SunacChina82-83280-781693-7259744Average368-1939265-253362-324948-10SourceCompanydataCMBIGLOBALMARKETFigure2COLIexclCOGOslandacquisitionsalesat31inlinewithothersSourceCompanydataCMBIGLOBALMARKETFigure3HistoricalPBchartSourceBBGCMBIGLOBALMARKETPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE21Feb2023Figure4NewTargetpricederivedSourceCompanydataCMBIGLOBALMARKETPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE31Feb2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue185790242241219904189591209634EBIT5604054770449274147347494Propertydevelopment180786236356212720180812198893Depreciationandamortization371408552580590Rentalincome40524667560167218065Changeinworkingcapital1933612431268923435320699Others9521218158320582676Incometaxpaid2089621509143541280214350Costofsales1299618521173721478816141Others49781327282672365240630Grossprofit558219570265461804417101482168Netcashfromoperating1120122565240342875427595Otherincomeandgains63634712556156375773Capex120878062277480490Distributionexpenses35133778351530313351AssociatesJV84465494998247285Administrativeexpenses26313191329928443145Other403910000Otherexpenses00000Netcashfrominvesting404414465721233205Operatingprofit5604054770449274147347494Equityraised00000Financeexpenses884866136515701806ChangeofDebts2676032627362884173247991AssociatesJV48563686309330933093Dividendpaid10627845212696741315870Exceptional91915540000Other809826654000Pre-taxprofit6920463130466554299648781Netcashfromfinancing803514426235923431832121Profitstax2149520068143541280214350Netchangeincash1519222525116357974730Profitaftertax4770943062323013019434431Cashatthebeginning9289510766129861236912449Minorityinterest38052906312031203120Exchangedifference4233284500015000950006Perpetual00000Cashattheend1076612986123691244912422Netprofit4390440155291812707431311Pledgeddeposit2805410951255392553625536Coreprofit3803036380291812707431311CashatBS110461309512625127041267796299BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets187404220950254073265844298288SalesmixFixedasset50115524580059006000Propertydevelopment973976967954949Investmentproperties140879166204191135200691230795Rentalincome2219253538AssociatesJV3331440571425994387745194Others0505071113Intangibleassets5656513450785021Total10001000100010001000Othernon-currentassets8144859494051029711278ProfitlossratiosCurrentassets636253648957663738687324715335Grossmargin300235210220230Cash110469130956123699124496124226EBITmargin302226204219227Accountreceivable2579720565186691609617797Netmargin236166133143149Inventories475689464029487231511592537172Effectivetaxrate311318308298294Othercurrentassets2429833406341403514036140BalancesheetratiosCurrentliabilities303962293901300597284847293095Currentratiox2122222424Borrowings4380544620513135901167862Receivableday507310310310310Tradeandotherpayables8280890055844687190278484Payableday23261775177517751775Contractliabilities121122100455100455100455100455Inventoryday133599145914591459145Deferredtaxation3812439173430903008220556Netgearingratio312311416503607Othercurrentliabilities1810419597212702339725737ReturnsNon-currentliabilities191346218900246058280092319232ROE140117827383Borrowings169175197302226897260932300071ROA5346322831Othernon-currentliabilities2217021598191601916019160PersharedataShareholdersequity314147343560354492368442378390EPSRMB347332267247286Minorityinterest1420313546166661978622906DPSHK118121097090104Perpetualbond00000BVPSRMB28673136323633633454Totalequity328349357106371158388228401296SourceCompanydataCMBIGlobalMarketEstimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE41Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5