>> 招银国际-China Consumer – Positive takeaway from F&B distributors; but sector’s bull-run could take a breather from here-230131
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研究报告全文：31Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaConsumerPositivetakeawayfromFBdistributorsbutMARKETPERFORMsectorsbull-runcouldtakeabreatherfromhereMaintainWehadpositivetakeawaysonFBdemandovertheNewYearholidaybreakChinaConsumerfromourchancelcheckwithdistributorsInviewofthestrongfoottrafficandhencegiftingdemandBaijiuandBeerexceededexpectationfollowedbysoftJosephWongdrinksandRTDDairiesincludingIMFhadagoodrecoverydespitea85239000838relativelyhighinventorylevelBothpackagedsnacksandinstantnoodlehadjosephwongcmbicomhkgoodmomentumCondimentsbeatwithaLSDgrowthvsaflattishexpectationToconcludeoverallsalesmomentummatchedexpectationyettobeaRelatedReports1CRBeer291HKAnothermeaningfullybeatConsideringthesectorsbull-runsinceDecemberwethinkpositiveyearfor2023ourexpectationsofastrongNewYearrecoveryhaslargelybeenpriced-inWithoutpreferredpickforChinasre-furthercatalystsintoFebruaryMarchneartermvaluationlookstobefatiguetoopening22Jan2023thereopeningthemeinourviewSharepricescouldstartconsolidatinginto2ChinaFeihe6186HKcouldresultseasonswhenmarketlikelyresetsitsearningsoutlookfor2023Weremainabetaplaywhenbirthraterecommendinvestorstobeselectiveandbiastowardsqualitystaplenamesthatonlystartinflectingpost3Q03notonlybenefitfromthereopeningthemebutalsodelivervisibleearningsJan2023trajectoriesWearefirmlypositiveonbreweriesfollowedbysoftdrinksand3BudweiserAPAC1876HKAdairiesandweareleastpreferredonIMFOurtopbuyremainsCRB291HKrelieving3QChinaspricehikeBuyfollowedbyTsingtao168HKBuyandBud1876HKBuyBeyondFBandAPACEastoutperformanceremainkeygrowthdrivers27Octwearealsobuy-ratedonCTGDF601888CHBuyandProya603605CHBuy2022Keytakeaways4CRBeer291HKAnothermovetotapintothebaijiumarketyetBaijiuMoutairecordedMSDtoHSDsalesgrowthwithstrongmomentumwithnear-termchallenges26OctseeninSeriesSKUsASPforFlyingFairyFeitiansealedcasewas2022RMB2970whilethatforunsealedwasRMB2780aboutRMB100higher5ShanghaiJahwa600315CHthanthosebyend-22WLYbeatona20growth3Qlargelyin-lineFYearningstrackwelltotheESOPtarget26BeerAverystrongsegmentwhennearlyallmajorbrandsalescameaboveOct2022expectationwithCRBTsingtaoBudweiserdelivering13107growthcomparedtoexpectationofonly853respectivelyRoom6ProyaCosmetics603605CH3Qasmallbeatbuttheimpliedforpricehikeisamplebutthescopeandcadenceremainstobeseen4Qnumberslookunexcitinggiventhecurrentguidance18OctDairiesIMFHSDgrowthforMengniuandYiliDiscounthasbeenwidening2022butthishasbeeneffectiveindrivingdowninventorydaysIMFsawamid-teenrecoverybutlargelyowingtoalowbaseinourviewCompetitions7ChinaConsumerAddressingrecentinvestorsconcernsourtopremainkeenwhenbirthratemaynotstartinflectingapproachingend-23ideasinto4Q225Oct2022SoftdrinksRTDNongfusno-sugarSKUsremainedpopularwith308Tsingtao168HKApotentiallygrowthwhilebottledwaterexpandedby20highestamongpeersstrong3Qwhenourchannelchecksindicatedlow-teensalesValuationsummarygrowthforJul-Sep22Sep2022PriceTPMktCapPExDivyieldROE9Adiverging1HmixupgradeandNameTickerRatingLCLCUSbnFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EcostsavingswerekeystostayCRBeer291HKBUY710605250484043640708165164relevant18Sep2022TsingtaoBeer168HKBUY860771173932672391315137140BudAPAC1876HKBUY2722514233640433800009010010YiliIndustrial600887CH2QYili600887CHBUY415333315002251813141177206Mengniu2319HKBUY570385194082171831012150160largelyinlineandyetarevised2HChinaFeihe6186HKBUY84778903115992631226224outlookpromptsforanearningscutNongfuSpring9633HKBUY5304456379652743940483323241Sep2022Smoore6969HKBUY25211992462391561218123162CTGDF601888CHBUY2560217566403622426050718821811BotaneeBiotech300957CH2QBotanee300957CHBUY2290141288575103880608208227inlinenewbrandsinanti-agingProya603605CHBUY1840165369386434770506212236Jahwa600315CHBUY392313314236928108117896andbabycaretosustaingrowthSourceCompanydataBBGCMBIGMestimates30Aug2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk31Jan2023Figure1BreweriesoutperformedmajorindicesFigure2CDFoutperformedmajorindicesIndexCRBTBBudApacIndexCDFProyaJahwaMXCNCSI300Hangseng140BotaneeMXCNCSI30014012012010010080806060Jul22Jul22Jul22Jul22JulJan23Jan23JanJun22Jun22Oct22Oct22OctSep22SepSep22SepOct22Oct22OctDec22Dec22DecJun22Jun22Jun23Jan23JanAug22Aug22Aug22AugNov22NovNov22Nov22NovNov22Nov22Nov22Dec22DecSep22SepAug22Aug22Aug22Sep22SepMay22MayMay22May22MaySourceBBGCMBIGMSourceBBGCMBIGMFigure3CRB1-yearforwardEVEBITDAchartFigure4Tsingtao1-yearforwardEVEBITDAchartx1-yrfwdEVEBITDALTaveragex1-yrfwdEVEBITDALTaverage35-2SD-1SD24-2SD-1SD1SD2SD1SD2SD302025162012158104Jul22JulJul18Jul19Jul20Jul21JulJul18JulJul19Jul20Jul21Jul22JulApr18AprOct18Oct19Apr19Oct20Apr20Oct21Apr21Oct22Apr22OctApr18AprOct18Oct19Apr19Oct20Apr20Oct21Apr21Oct22Apr22OctJan18Jan23JanJan19Jan20Jan21Jan22JanJan21JanJan19Jan20Jan22Jan23JanJan18JanSourceBBGCMBIGMSourceBBGCMBIGMFigure5Budweiser1-yearforwardEVEBITDAFigure6Feihe1-yearforwardPEchartchartx1-yrfwdEVEBITDALTaveragex1-yrfwdPELTaverage-2SD-2SD-1SD32341SD2SD-1SD1SD2SD282924242016191214894Jul20Jul21Jul22JulApr20Apr20Oct21Apr21Oct22Apr22OctOct19OctApr20Apr20Oct21Apr21Oct22Apr22OctJun20Jun21Jun22JunJan20JanJan21Jan22Jan23JanFeb20Feb21Feb22FebDec19Dec20Dec21AugDec21Dec22Aug22Dec20AugSourceBBGCMBIGMSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE231Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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