研究报告全文：31Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBYDCompany1211HKHOLDMaintain4Q22beatFY23EmarginslikelyoverestimatedTargetPriceHK23000PreviousTPHK21800UpDownside-40BYDs4Q22earningsbeatourexpectationWeraiseourFY23EnetprofittoRMBCurrentPriceHK23960189bnorRMB7100pervehicletoaccountforsubsidyphase-outandstifferChinaAutoSectorcompetitionWebelieveconsensuscouldunderestimatethemargindentfromthesubsidyphase-outWemaintainHOLDgivenitsfairvaluationtousSHIJiCFA4Q22earningsbeatBYDannouncedpreliminaryFY22netprofitrangeof85237618728shijicmbicomhkRMB16-17bnon30Jan2023whichimplies4Q22netprofitofRMB67bn-77bnstrongerthanourpriorforecastBYDs4Q22revenueofoverRMBDOUWenjingCFA152bnalsoexceededourpriorexpectationlikelyduetohigheraverage85269394751sellingpricesOurestimatednetprofitpervehicleexclBYDE285HKdouwenjingcmbicomhkHOLDroseslightlyfromRMB9869in3Q22toRMB9932in4Q22StockDataFY23EconsensusmayunderestimatethemargindentfromsubsidyMktCapHKmn697510phase-outWeprojectBYDsFY23Esalesvolumetorise31YoYto246mnAvg3mthstoHKmn1908unitsoutperformingourprojectionofChinastotalNEVsalesvolumegrowth52wHighLowHK3330016170of27despiteBYDsmarketleadingpositionAlthoughsomeinvestorsTotalIssuedSharesmn2911SourceBloombergexpectBYDtoextenditsstrongsalesgrowthwebelievebothBYDsBEVsandPHEVscouldfaceheightenedcompetitionfromTeslaspricecutsandShareholdingStructureChinese-brandPHEVlaunchesOurFY23EnetprofitestimatesofRMBWangChuanfu176LvXiangyang82189bnimpliesanetprofitpervehicleexclBYDEofaboutRMB7100vsOthers741RMB8200inFY22amidsubsidyphase-outOurprojectednetprofitperSourceHKExvehicleinFY23EwouldhavebeenaboutRMB13100iftherewasnosubsidychangeorRMB336bnfornetprofit100YoYgrowthForcomparisonSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeTeslasTSLAUSNR40YoYsalesvolumegrowthinFY22resultedin1-mth278131128YoYincreaseinnetprofitamiditssuperioroperationalefficiency3-mth341-1276-mth-145-292ValuationKeyrisksWeraiseourtargetpriceslightlyfromHK218toSourceBloombergHK230basedonsum-of-the-partsSOTPvaluationFigure4mainlybecauseofforexchangeWevalueHK180pershareforBYDsauto12-mthPricePerformanceHK1211HKHSIrebasedbusinessequivalentto12xourFY23ENEVrevenuegiventhecurrentPS350valuationof1-2xfortheNEVtrioWevalueHK25andHK11persharefor300BYDsbatteryandsemiconductorsegmentbothbasedon10xFY23EPSon250ourestimatedexternalEVbatteryrevenueandexternalsemiconductorsales200respectivelyWevalueHK14pershareforBYDshandsetbusinessbased150onBYDEscurrentmarketcapofHK61bnOurtargetpriceisequivalentto1005031xFY23EPEwhichisfairtousgiventhatTeslaisnowtradingat38x0FY23EPEKeyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceincludehigherorlower2022-012022-042022-072022-10NEVsalesvolumeandmarginsaswellassectorre-ratingorde-ratingSourceBloombergEarningsSummaryAuditorErnstYoungYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn156598216142420024536681567920YoYgrowth22638094327858NetincomeRMBmn42343045165081888415883EPSRMB147106567649546YoYgrowth16232814421144159PEx14121965367321381PBx10664544742Yield0201030303ROE7540160157117Netgearing259NetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk31Jan2023Figure1QuarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EYoYQoQSalesvolumeunits1041451425442060552873872913783550215387046834401378269Revenue4099249894543077095066825837821170811523361147301Grossprofit516364387238930682871205422199272791931229RDexpenses121717782238275723613064544667301441236SGAexpenses241026492983375036804713737283431225132Operatingprofit64615701653763106135617460890810672194Netprofit237936127060280827875713719910958260Grossmargin12612913313112414419017948ppt-11pptOperatingmargin163130111643645848ppt-05pptNetmargin061923081233494739ppt-02pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue420024536681567920380351463394481459104158180GrossProfit698198313280767567666416263739230296267OperatingProfit209902360820246166151599212966263476561Netprofit165081888415883132901287010149242467565GrossMargin16615514214913813217ppt16ppt10pptOperatingMargin50443644352706ppt09ppt09pptNetMargin39352835282104ppt07ppt07pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY21EFY22EFY23ERevenue42002453668156792040011556241169097550-46-178GrossProfit6981983132807675946589142114847174-67-297OperatingProfit20990236082024619903296674265755-204-525Netprofit165081888415883142642273231168157-169-490GrossMargin16615514214915916618ppt-04ppt-24pptOperatingMargin50443650536200ppt-09ppt-26pptNetMargin39352836404504ppt-05ppt-17pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure4SOTPvaluationtableEstimatedRevenueofFY23ETargetPSTargetMarketCapTargetPriceSegmentRMBmnMultipleHKmnHKNEV38649812x534295180ExternalsalesofEVbattery638510x7355125Handset6117514Externalsalesofsemiconductor300010x3352311SOTP702543230SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE231Jan2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue156598216142420024536681567920Profitbeforetaxation68834518209002345820096Costofsales126251187998350205453549487153Depreciationamortization1251914108160421821320151Grossprofit3034628145698198313280767Changeinworkingcapital21399440831487878866041Others45922757135210462Sellingexp50566082142201743317932Netcashfromoperating4539365467234174954646750Adminexp4321571098891249913654RDexp74657991176001936018700Capex1177437344259302517023830Others6419373071211023210235Others26708060900990990Operatingprofit70864632209902360820246Netcashfrominvesting1444445404268302616024820Non-operatingincome282338340300300Shareissuance-37314---Non-operatingexpenses485452430450450Netborrowings24490170061105198881000Pre-taxprofit68834518209002345820096Others44184245125531483111Netcashfromfinancing289071606312307130364111Tax869551339034682951Minorityinterests1780922100311061262Netchangeincash204136125157201035017820Netprofit42343045165081888415883Cashatbeginningoftheyear1167413738498203410044450Exchangedifference2344---Cashattheendoftheyear1373849820341004445062270BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECurrentassets111605166110226486290592323520SalesmixCashequivalents1444550457350004545063270Automobile536520712729712Accountreceivables500794499483142106234112417Handset383400241228248Inventories313964335576757101893109443Batteryothers8080474241Othercurrentassets1568527304315873701538390GrowthNon-currentassets89412129670141976151292156729Revenue22638094327858PPE5458561221687087364475180Grossprofit45873148119128Intangibles1187017171197312033420155Operatingprofit20643463532125142InvestmentinJVsassos5466790589751028511595Netprofit16232814421144159Othernon-currentassets1749243373445624703049799Totalassets201017295780368462441885480249ProfitlossratioGrossmargin194130166155142Currentliabilities106431171304228161284134308164Operatingmargin4521504436Bankborrowings16401102047888--Netprofitmargin2714393528Accountpayables4298373160115136149112160160ContractLiabilities81931493419189248526006BalancesheetratioOthercurrentliabilities388547300685948110170141998Netcashtotalequityx0303020304Currentratiox1010101010Non-currentliabilities3013320232178481695916047Receivableturnoverdays13694858585Bankborrowings147458744774467444744Inventoryturnoverdays9184808282Bondpayables8880204646461046Payableturnoverdays150156150150150Othernon-currentliabilities65079442100581016910257Totalliabilities136563191536246009301092324211ProfitabilityROE7540160157117Sharecapital27282911291129112911ROA2112504734Reserves5305292159108461125794139889Non-controllinginterests75809175110811208713238PersharedataRMBShareholdersequity5687495070111372128705142800EPS147106567649546Totalequityandliabilities201017295780368462441885480249DPS015011057065055SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE331Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4