>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – CNY： Crowded malls, pent-up buyers but overbuilt houses-230126
| 上传日期： |
2023/1/26 |
大小： |
1214KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共6页 |
来源： |
招银国际 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
无限制-登录即可下载 |
|
|
研究报告全文：26Jan2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorCNYCrowdedmallspent-upbuyersbutOUTPERFORMoverbuilthousesMaintainOurCNYchannelcheckindicatesthefollowingtrends1ShoppingmallsaretheChinaPropertySectorkeybeneficiariesafterreopeningWuyueWandaCRallsawquicktrafficrecoveryafterCOVIDandrestaurantsperformedthebest2Decentone-offJeffreyZengpent-updemandforhomepurchasemayboostFebsalesinlinewithoursales85239163727leadingindicatorGAIN3OverbuiltandunsoldinventoryposesthebiggestriskjeffreyzengcmbicomhkforthepropertyandfinancialsystemThereforewesuggestthefollowingstockrecommendationinFeb1ShoppingmallsSeazenLongforCRLand2MiaoZhangDevelopersCOLIVankeCIFI85237618910ShoppingmallssawfastrecoveryWuyueWandaRestaurantsotherszhangmiaocmbicomhkBasedonourchannelcheckthetrafficinsomeofthebigshoppingmallslikeBellaLiWuyueandWandawerebetterthan2022thankstothequickrecoveryafter85237576202PandemicFrommallperspectiveWuyueandWandabothsawalmost100bellalicmbicomhkoccupancyrateandWuyuewasdoingbetterthanWandaintermsoftrafficThekeyreasonsotherthanlocationaremainlythatWuyueprovidesmorechildrenfacilitiesandrightmallsizetofitinqualitytenantsWandasadvantageisbeingabletoattractEVtenantslikeHuaweiXpengandLiAutogivenitshugesizereconfirmingourreportNEVswipingrightforhipmallsIntermsoftenantperformancerestaurantsaretheobviouswinnerswithmosttrafficwhiletherestisstilllaggingmuchbehindWeexpectsalestoseeshort-termboostinFebduetopent-updemandandlowbaseJansalesisstilllikelytoendupbadlyasaresultofCOVIDandCNYdistortionMTDsaleswentdown33YoYinmajor30citiesvs-2125inDecNov2022HoweverourchannelcheckandleadingsalesindicatorGAINZENGMIAObothindicatedashort-termboostinFebFromchannelcheckperspectivethetrafficinpropertyregistrationdepartmenthasimprovedexponentiallyafterCOVIDChart3FromGAINIndexperspectivewhichhasbeenveryaccuratesincewefirstlaunchinMay2022ithasindicatedastrongsalesrecoveryinFeb2022atascalesimilartoJunandSepin2022AlsothebaseismuchlowerinFeb2022duetoCNYthereforeFebsalesisworthexpectingLookingbeyondFebitislargelydependentonthepolicystrengthafterTwoSessionson5MarIfitstartstoallowrelaxationinTier1citieslikeGuangzhouthenthesentimentmaycontinueOverbuiltinventoryremainsthebiggestchallengeIntheshort-to-mediumtermtheoversupplyoflandsandinventoryinanationalscalewouldposethebiggestriskonthepropertypriceandthusdemandsentimentAccordingtoourcalculationthenationalinventorymonthhaspiledinto26monthsofsaleswhichisthehighestsince2017OurchannelcheckalsoindicatesasimilarcaseespeciallylowertiercitiesChart6Ifwetakeotherdemandfactorsintoconsiderationthepopulationisalreadydecliningin2022034in2021vs7in2014and5in2008urbanizationratehaslessroomthanbefore65in2021vs56in2014and47in2008highhouseholdleverage62in2021vs36in2014and18in2008thisimpliestheoverallrecoverywouldtakemuchlongertimethanpreviouspolicyrelaxationcyclesThereforeweforecastpropertysalesvaluetodeclineanother10in2023after-27in2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk26Jan2023Figure1TrafficrecoveredquicklyinshoppingmallslikeWuyueandWandaSourceCMBIGMFigure2EVbrandsareindeedexpandingintoshoppingmallsSourceCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE226Jan2023Figure3Pent-updemandafterpandemicmayboostsalesintheshorttermSourceCMBIGMFigure4LeadingindicatorsuggestsbettersalesinFebSourceNBSCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE326Jan2023Figure5Jansaleswentdown33YoYinmajor30citiespartlyduetoCNYdistortionSourceNBSCMBIGMFigure6LargeamountofunsoldunitsinJingzhouSourceCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE426Jan2023Figure7Nationalinventorymonthpiledtothehighestsince2017SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure8CompsheetofdevelopersSourceBBGCMBIGMFigure9CompsheetofpropertysupplychainSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE526Jan2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
|
|
